Masterhunter
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You have taken a standard number. What you need to do is count squadrons.
Su-30MKI = 13.5
Mig-29 = 3
M-2000 = 3
Jaguar = 3.5
Total = 23 without new inductions. 485 jets.
New inductions
Su-30MKI = 2
Rafale = 2
LCA Mk1/A = 6
Total = 33. 202 jets.
So at least 33 squadrons are confirmed by media.
It means we still need 9 squadrons of extra aircraft. That's about 180 aircraft.
You believe 180 aircraft can be achieved by 2027. Yes, it is possible, but you did not take into account that IN needs 7 squadrons by 2027. A large chunk of the Indian made Rafales will go to IN also. So 9 squadrons for IAF + 7 squadrons for IN. Totally we need 9+7 = 16 new squadrons by 2027.
After 2027, the IAF will continue inducting new squadrons since they want more than 50 squadrons in reality. The total squadron strength is expected to rise after 2027. So add another 8 squadrons. Obviously, the navy also plans expansion after 2027. So more squadrons for them also.
You haven't considered attrition replacement either. That could easily add 5 jets a year or more. And some of the aircraft to be manufactured in India will be exported also. This is meant to make the line more profitable.
So even the second MMRCA line is too less. We are pressed for time. That's why even the FGFA has been fast tracked.
Even AMCA has been fast tracked. Once the FSED starts, probably this year, the first demonstrator will be built by 2019. First flight is expected then. One more demonstrator and four prototypes out of seven are expected in a span of just three years after 2019. They want to finish flight testing before 2025. The new engine will be integrated before 2021, so that's probably when the first prototype will fly. FGFA will be equally slow, with FOC expected only in 2025. Regardless, we still need the second MMRCA line.
The final numbers have been decided. The only people who know the numbers and the tranches outside Dassault and the Indian govt are Picdel, an ex-Indian Navy pilot called Vstol from IDF, a member called CNL from IDF and myself.
The numbers are part of the MoU that was signed in Jan. Once the first contract for 36 is signed, things will start moving in the Make in India front. The IN needs to complete evaluation for final numbers. MoD has pegged the number at 54 for now for the navy. The offsets will be covered by transferring tech for LCA program and building a production line in India.
This is the same thing I wanna to hear to discuss...
See what is standard size for a sqn..18 or 20. IAF used 18 fro western planes and 20 for Russian ones. I M aware this is done to offset low availability of Russian planes. But it can be increased and looked into.
Also when govt sanctions sqn strength it does go into numbers, that is where IAF plays with it.
Now let's see what IAF has...it has sanctinoed strength has 42 sqn by 2027. It includes physical present and order confirmed.
Su 30..15 sqn..300 planes (312 on order)
Mig29/mirage/jags..9.5 sqn ..173 planes
LCA...6sqn...(108+20 on order)
Rafale..2 sqn.. 36.. (Order almost done)
Total.. 31.5 sqn... 629 planes...
deficient of about 11 sqn. All above orders will be completed by 2023-24.
Now what actually IAF need by 2027.. 42 sqn strength.
Heavy fighter..15-20 sqn
Medium...12-15 sqn
Light 12-15 sqn.
1. Heavy fighter . (15-20 sqn) already have 15 su30 sqn. Can order 2 more and will get by 2025 by then FGFA will start production.. Can get 1-2 sqn by 2027.
2. Medium fighter:- (12-15 sqn) we already have 11.5 sqn.. Can order 03-04 sqn more rafale by MII ..will get by 2027.
3. Light fighter12-15 sqn) .. Getting 6sqn by 2024.....can get max 03 more sqn by 2027.
So total sqn that can be made from existing or proposed prod line is 09-11 more by 2027..
This will complete our deficiency by 2027.
Now the problem is we need more light aircraft that is LCA...
The solution of our problem is having a second production line is tejàs and not a new MRCA line. IAF don't need more MRCA to build up numbers, it can be better done by LCA. A new production line of LCA from 2021 churning 8-16 plane/yrs.. Can gives us minimum of 56 planes to max of 112 planes... That is approx 3- 51/2 sqn more of LCA
About IN need of rafale, IN need rafale after 2027 as Vishal/Vikrant2 will come after 2028 at best. MII rafale line will produce about 16/yr from 2022 at worst, if all goes well( decision by Dec 2016, negotiations by dec 18/Jan 19 plus three yrs for 1st plane to roll out. So from 2022 we can have minimum11 Rafales/yr( comparison French prod line..to give a minimum of 66 planes (3.5 sqn)... Or 16/yr to give 96 planes(5 sqn). This matches my figure of minimum production.
Now, if LCA second line starts we càn have 12-16 sqn more by 2027..approx matching what IAF force structure should be.
We will be retiring JAG/mirage/MIG from 2030-35.. ..total of 9.5 sqn
From 2028-2035
FGFA- 3-4 sqn..( to make a total of 5sqn
AMCA -02
Rafale..2028-30 will give IN their 54 Rafales.. From 2030-35 , 05 sqn for IAF.
LCA..1-2 sqn to keep line open till 2030..
So total sqn IAF might get in 2028-2035 are 11-13 to replace 91/2 sqn..
By 2035, IAF will have
Su 30... 17 sqn +FGFA..5 sqn = 22 sqn of air superiority
Rafale.. 10-11 sqn+ AMCA 2 sqn = 12-13 of MMRCA
LCA... 13-16 sqn..
Total is 47-51 sqn...by 2035....
Now again IAF needs more to increase pilots than to increase combat strength... If IAF can get 1.2 pilot/plane from present ratii of 0.8, it can get more sorties from each plane during war and can utilise its air assets better.... And it's more economicalthan buying more planes...
IAF whatever I have seen them working, once u give them 50 sqn they will ask for 60 citing china has 60......
We will be fighting defensive while fighting china.. So in defensive warfare, we can very well assume that china needs more than 1.5 times of our air assets to get air space control.. If we have 45 sqn.. 10 sqn with good airdef will keep pak at bay nd 35 sqn against chinese border. China need to put 50 sqn against us while keeping its borders with Japan/Taiwan and SCS manned..they need a total of 70+ sqn...too big a number to achieve in conventional warfare.
Also in this u can include follow on order of 18 more rafake through French line..
And hence total sqn of rafale with IAF by 2035 will be 3 sqn (French line) + 5 sqn (2022-27 MII) + 5sqn (2031-35) = a total of 13 sqn... 2 more than what IAF actually wants by MMRCA (189 planes or 10 sqn)
This all is in addition to 3sqn for IN ( 2028-2030) and 12 extra if prod line can max churn out 16/ yr..
If the prod can churn at 24/ yr from 2022... U can get max 112 planes more (6sqn) and that can euip the complete navy if needed.
Finally India don't need a new MRCA line.. It waste and will add one more aircraft variety into IAF inventory. Just need to optimise Present prod lines or buy off the shelf..
An order of 3 sqn of MIG 29/35 or 2 sqn of PAKFA or 2-3 sqn of old M2K will cover any lag in procurement to buildup number without creating new infrastructure of new plane
For Indian Navy, present status is
1. INS vikramaditya. .airwing..MIG29.. delivery of 45 planes completed.
2. INS vikrant... Operational date 2018.. Possible airwing MIG29/NLCA.. Order of 30-40 odd MIG29 likely as NLCA is operational by 2025-26..
3. INS vikrant 2..operational in 2027-28. Airwing not finalised.. Likely NLCA/RAfaleM... 32 planes needed
4. INS Vishal.. Likly operational by 2030-32.. Airwing rafale M moat likely.. 54 planes needed.
5. iNS Vishal 2 likly operational date 2038-40.. Airwing Rafale/ Naval AMCA ..54 needed..
Hence by 2030 IN needs 4 -5sqn.. Of which 2 sqn of MIG29 will be ordered offthe shelf. And rest 2 sqn of rafale-M I have catered for. From 2032 for Vishal.. NLCa will be ready and inducted (2 sqn) and one sqn of rafale (already catered) so to complete Vishal airwing.