Dan Collins: Ghost Cities in China Disappearing

[AndrewJin]

I dont know. But I was stopped nearly twice during my travel from Kunshan to Hyonquing (thats the name I think) and nearly 3 times during my travel from Kunshan to Shanghai by road. They dont stop arbitarily though. Mostly in signals I received it. I didnt see any ghost city myself. But thats what my Chinese colleague told me.

Naturally prices in Shanghai or Suzhou will never get less. Not sure about other cities

Nearly all big cities are witnessing increase in prices of real estate. If western media mentions cities like Erdos, I will agree. But China in general with the rapid urbanisation needs more houses and apartments, especially affordable cheap apartments in the suburban regions which is linked by metro to the downtown. If I find a job in Shanghai, I can never afford a 1-2 million dollar apartment in downtown, I will find a 1/3-1/2 price like this one,
(taken last weekend along G60 expressway from Shanghai to Shexian)

 

[BigDaddyWatch]

The picture of housing in China is complex. The big cities like Beijing or Shanghai doesn't have a lot of empty houses as demand is very strong. But in third and fourth tier cities there is a massive glut in housing. The sort of cities that our Indian friend has mentioned is exactly the sort of places where the oversupply of housing is worst. The ghost cities that are part of a larger city like the projects in Zhengzhou, Kunming and Tianjin will fill up eventually. But places like Ordos that is out of the middle of nowhere or those third and fourth tier cities will remain a big question.

 

[AndrewJin]

The picture of housing in China is complex. The big cities like Beijing or Shanghai doesn't have a lot of empty houses as demand is very strong. But in third and fourth tier cities there is a massive glut in housing. The sort of cities that our Indian friend has mentioned is exactly the sort of places where the oversupply of housing is worst. The ghost cities that are part of a larger city like the projects in Zhengzhou, Kunming and Tianjin will fill up eventually. But places like Ordos that is out of the middle of nowhere or those third and fourth tier cities will remain a big question.

Yes, I don't see any problems with 1st and 2nd tier cities, and most 3rd tier cities. Fourth tier or fifth tier cities are the major concern, but anyway, the number is quite small. So even the problem of fourth tier cities is serious, their impact is relatively small. In my province, the projects of Wuhan, the capital city, accounts for the majority of all projects of Hubei Province. But the population of Wuhan has raised from 8 million 10 years ago to 10 million.

 

[StarCraft_ZT]

Any new district at the first one year or two years is a "ghost" city.
@StarCraft_ZT Zhengzhou's huge "ghost" city for instance....

New Zhengzhou district. Don't need to explain any more.

 

[AndrewJin]

View attachment 214838

New Zhengzhou district. Don't need to explain any more.

Totally understand. I was stuck on one rapid road in the new district, and wondering why no more lanes, why metro construction was too slow, why no more city expressways...in a ghost city...maybe they mean too many ghost cars.

 

[StarCraft_ZT]

Totally understand. I was stuck on one rapid road in the new district, and wondering why no more lanes, why metro construction was too slow, why no more city expressways...in a ghost city...maybe they mean too many ghost cars.

We will feel even more crowed on the road. Car ownership per capital in China is still lower, there is still room for automobile to grow.
Zhengzhou now has build another CBD alongside the HSR, it's a little bit empty since the overall construction has not been done yet, but I can see a lot of cars passing by. I took these pictures when I vistied my hometown last time, as a tier 3 city in China, it's developing fast. Unluckily in North China the air pollution is really serious. I don't feel any weird about the ghost cities at all, because isn't it more convenient to invite business when all the things and related public facilities are there? These CBDs are not only buildings, they are the future too!

 

[AndrewJin]

We will feel even more crowed on the road. Car ownership per capital in China is still lower, there is still room for automobile to grow.
Zhengzhou now has build another CBD alongside the HSR, it's a little bit empty since the overall construction has not been done yet, but I can see a lot of cars passing by. I took these pictures when I vistied my hometown last time, as a tier 3 city in China, it's developing fast. Unluckily in North China the air pollution is really serious. I don't feel any weird about the ghost cities at all, because isn't it more convenient to invite business when all the things and related public facilities are there? These CBDs are not only buildings, they are the future too!

View attachment 214843 View attachment 214844 View attachment 214845 View attachment 214846

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No need to worry about pollution, no country is free from this problem at the developing phase. We are suffering from that, but in the same time we have laid the solid foundation for the future.
If I see blue sky everyday in Wuhan, that's the real problem. The most serious problem is not in China, but in India which has the most polluted cities at the very beginning of industrialisation, what will happen to India if Modi fulfils his steel dream? @Bussard Ramjet

 

[StarCraft_ZT]

No need to worry about pollution, no country is free from this problem at the developing phase. We are suffering from that, but in the same time we have laid the solid foundation for the future.
If I see blue sky everyday in Wuhan, that's the real problem. The most serious problem is not in China, but in India which has the most polluted cities at the very beginning of industrialisation, what will happen to India if Modi fulfils his steel dream? @Bussard Ramjet

True, if my memory is correct, I read that it took Germans more than 3-4 decades to curb and solve the pollution once for all in some heavy industry areas. It's a natural process that after the initial stage of development of heavy industry or resource intensive factories being forced by government to adopt clean energy and green way to dispose industrial residue.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

No need to worry about pollution, no country is free from this problem at the developing phase. We are suffering from that, but in the same time we have laid the solid foundation for the future.
If I see blue sky everyday in Wuhan, that's the real problem. The most serious problem is not in China, but in India which has the most polluted cities at the very beginning of industrialisation, what will happen to India if Modi fulfils his steel dream? @Bussard Ramjet

We'll have to see what are the sources of the pollution.

As I said in a previous post, pollution is not necessarily directly proportional to Industries. But, one thing I have no doubt about is that India with a growth like China's will face more challenges.

To quote a previous post

I had a course in environmental protection.

There was a very curious case study.

There was a small city in India (I forget the name), which had huge problems with pollution. The problems were seriously monumental! As is often the case, local people made the local industries to be the scapegoat. They protested and forced the local authorities to shut down all industries for close to 11 months, for a thorough re-evaluation of pollution checks etc.

Turns out, the pollution didn't change. (Rather, it went up slightly)

Finally, the reason- Most of the pollution was due to coal, wood, and crop burning. People in that very small city, largely relied on coal and wood (of cheap quality) to stay warm in winters, and also to cook their food, warm water etc. They burned their crop remains after harvest. All this was the major contributor to pollution.

Often industries are only scape goats.

So, if the general living standards of the population increase, I would expect people using LNG, or electricity for such uses. So this whole pollution debate is not so simple, and not linearly correlated with industrial growth.​

 

[AndrewJin]

True, if my memory is correct, I read that it took Germans more than 3-4 decades to curb and solve the pollution once for all in some heavy industry areas. It's a natural process that after the initial stage of development of heavy industry or resource intensive factories being forced by government to adopt clean energy and green way to dispose industrial residue.

Yes.
Now I'm in the countryside of Anhui Province of Central China, enjoying blue sky everyday.
When Hefei-Fuzhou HSR is open this July, I recommend you take a direct HSR train from Zhengzhou to southern Anhui Province, really cheap food and clean air.

 

[大汉奸柳传志]

won‘t miss them，will always have one ghost city left in Fengdu

 

[AndrewJin]

We'll have to see what are the sources of the pollution.

As I said in a previous post, pollution is not necessarily directly proportional to Industries. But, one thing I have no doubt about is that India with a growth like China's will face more challenges.

To quote a previous post

I had a course in environmental protection.

There was a very curious case study.

There was a small city in India (I forget the name), which had huge problems with pollution. The problems were seriously monumental! As is often the case, local people made the local industries to be the scapegoat. They protested and forced the local authorities to shut down all industries for close to 11 months, for a thorough re-evaluation of pollution checks etc.

Turns out, the pollution didn't change. (Rather, it went up slightly)

Finally, the reason- Most of the pollution was due to coal, wood, and crop burning. People in that very small city, largely relied on coal and wood (of cheap quality) to stay warm in winters, and also to cook their food, warm water etc. They burned their crop remains after harvest. All this was the major contributor to pollution.

Often industries are only scape goats.

So, if the general living standards of the population increase, I would expect people using LNG, or electricity for such uses. So this whole pollution debate is not so simple, and not linearly correlated with industrial growth.​

If industry is only the scape goats, the pollution in India is incurable.
Some people say China becomes old before Chinese become rich.
Can we say India becomes polluted before India becomes industrialised?

From WHO(PM2.5 is the most dangerous pollutant to health)

won‘t miss them，will always have one ghost city left in Fengdu

YEP! WE NEED THIS ONE!

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

If industry is only the scape goats, the pollution in India is incurable.
Some people say China becomes old before Chinese become rich.
Can we say India becomes polluted before India becomes industrialised?

From WHO(PM2.5 is the most dangerous pollutant to health)
View attachment 214868


YEP! WE NEED THIS ONE!

Not really. Once people in our villages, (where almost 75% of our population lives) can get electricity, the burning of fire wood and coal will decrease. You know how much polluting they are. That's why I say that nothing is predictable right now. There will have to be a detailed study about the sources etc. of pollution.

Also, China's demographic problem is also solvable but China isn't paying attention yet.

 

[AndrewJin]

Not really. Once people in our villages, (where almost 75% of our population lives) can get electricity, the burning of fire wood and coal will decrease. You know how much polluting they are. That's why I say that nothing is predictable right now. There will have to be a detailed study about the sources etc. of pollution.

Also, China's demographic problem is also solvable but China isn't paying attention yet.

We have paid attention to how to make our industry more competitive rather than rely on labour-intensive industry which is gradually moving to other developing countries that provide lower wage labourers.
饮鸩止渴（quench a thirst with poison) is how we describe the solution you recommend again and again in PDF.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

We have paid attention to how to make our industry more competitive rather than rely on labour-intensive industry which is gradually moving to other developing countries that provide lower wage labourers.

But there comes a stage when human limitations limit progress.

It is much easier to rise from 1000 dollars to 5000 dollars, than from 25000 dollars to 30000 dollars.

Humans are essentially all equal in ability. They are separated by political systems, and their societal conditions, as well as their historical conditions.

One biggest trump card of globalization is that capital is extremely mobile, and every one wants capital, especially the developing countries. An investor wants returns. Hence, he will be much tempted to invest in places where income is 1000 dollars because with right policies they can easily rise to 5000 dollars and give him heavy returns.

I am not arguing that you should keep the low wage laborers. What I'm just saying is that Human resources are the biggest resource of any nation in the world.