China’s J-15 – a ‘Flying Shark’ with sharp teeth or nothing more than a “flopping fish” ?
Following several astonishing news about China’s carrier ambitions and progress in recent times, on 23 September an surprisingly critical report was published by the Beijing-based ‘Sina Military Network’ (SMN) calling the capabilities of the carrier-borne J-15 ‘Flying Shark’ as nothing more than a “flopping fish”. What at first sight was an unusual departure from the often too enthusiastic reports from the mainland media about China’s growing military developments, is at a second sight a good opportunity to indeed critically analyse the J-15. However even if the story was soon picked up by several agencies abroad, a closer look onto the arguments reveals a different story.
The story was preceded by a news report from the official ‘China Daily Times’ about the Liaoning’s latest three-week voyage in September and the associated flight tests, which included J-15 take-offs and landings on the carrier with maximum load and various weapons. Tested were both different air-superiority load-outs of PL-8 and PL-12 AAMs as well as different striker-configurations comprising four 500 kg ‘dumb’ bombs but also the heavy YJ-83K ASM, a weapon so far never seen on any Chinese Flanker.
So what’s true? Is the J-15 ‘Flying Shark’ a true modern fourth-generation multirole fighter as the official media wants to assume or is it indeed only a ‘flopping Fish’ as posted by SMN? To answer the question, one has to take a closer look onto these complaints: The report mentions that “the fighter can take off and land on the carrier with two YJ-83K anti-ship missiles, two PL-8 air-to-air missiles, and four 500-kilogram bombs. But a weapons load exceeding 12 tons will not get it off the carrier’s ski jump ramp”, what “might prohibit it from carrying heavier munitions such as PL-12 medium-range air-to-air missiles.” It continues with“… the range of the YJ-83K prepared for the fighter will be shorter than comparable missiles launched from larger PLAN vessels. The J-15 will be boxed into less than 120 km of attack range.” and finally “despite improvements” it wonders why the Chinese bothered with the Su-33 given the fact that Russia gave up on it. Weight problems and other issues forced the Russians to develop the MiG-29K, which has better power-to-weight ratio and can carry more weapons.”
These were only the worst points to complain but let’s take a closer look to them. First of all the J-15 operated off the Liaoning will surely be limited in its MTOW in comparison to its land-based capabilities due to the unique ski-jump-ramp or a true carrier equipped with catapults, that’s simply a fact and already the Russians realized this sometimes back in the mid-1990s when testing their Su-33 on the Admiral Kuznetsov, but does this instantly makes the J-15 worthless?
Again in the order mentioned above the J-15 can indeed not carry a weapons load of 12 t but the report fails to consider what fighter has this load capability? Not even the land based Su-34 could do that. Even more considering the given load out of two large ASMs or the equivalent of four 500kg bombs, two short-range PL-8s and probably even two medium-range PL-12s the J-15 would carry quite a significant load of about 4,1– 4,5 t, which would mean only about 70% of J-15's total load capability (reportedly 6,5 t when land based for a combat radius of 1270 km). As an alternative in the CAP- or air superiority role the J-15 even launch off the Liaoning when loaded with four PL-8 and six PL-12. Additionally both these heavyweight load-outs already include a significant amount of fuel and even if not filled up to 100% the J-15 will surely have a much longer range than any other naval fighter today. Probably the report missed to mention that surely a heavy air-to-air- and air-to-ground-load could not be carried at the same time but compared to the current ‘benchmark’ in naval aviation, the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet or even the mentioned MiG-29K the J-15 will offer more than acceptable performances and all this without external fuel tanks. Why this should result in a range for the used YJ-83K (of at least 180-220 km) in a shorter range than fired from naval vessels is well beyond any imagination and as such might give a hint of the reliability of that report.
Finally regarding the ‘new’ MiG-29K; it is indeed a more modern type in comparison to the original Su-33, but not to the J-15, which has borrowed a lot from the redesigned airframe and more modern avionics of the J-11B and even more it has to be considered that the Mig-29K is a smaller aircraft – especially chosen by India to be operated off the even smaller Vikramaditya. As such this type is even more limited in its absolute load of weapons, fuel and therefore operational range and even if the MiG-29K can carry “more” – in the sense different – weapons this was simply due to the fact that the Russians never integrated as many different weapons into the Su-33; the YJ-83K noted on the J-15 proofs already other way. Even further the Russian Navy gave up – or will soon give up – their Su-33 and eventually replace them by new Mig-29K because the Indians more or less funded the modernized Mig-29K development and ordered a larger quantity, which lowered production costs. If – as originally planned – the PLAN had decided to buy modernized Su-33 then the Russians would have surely followed this path since the very reason China went for the larger and heavier J-15 rather than a smaller design since the same reason why the PLAAF choose once Su-27 over the Mig-29 back at the end of the cold war, is the great range and payload of the Flanker airframe, which provides the PLA with the desired power-projection capability.
As such following the latest reports and images from the SAC facility during President Xi Jinping's visit the J-15 is already in Batch 01 production. Shown to the President of the PRC was one factory fresh aircraft wearing full PLANAF-colours. Besides that Xi Jinping, who is also Chairman of the powerfull Central Military Commission (CMC) visited not only the aircraft factory at Shenyang but also both the training facility at Huangdicun (also known as Xingcheng-2), where he attended a flight display by the J-15s based there and the CV-16 'Liaoning' carrier itself, giving with his personal endorsement another political statement for China's ambitious carrier program.
In conclusion it cannot be solved why this report complains so much about the J-15 and what's the entire issue about it but even if the J-15 will operationally be powered ‘only’ by Russian AL-31F engines it seems as if the ‘Sea Flanker’ can finally show its full potential now in Chinese service.