Cross-border raid: Strategic analysts laugh off Indian claim

[Musafir117]

Here is the released footage:

Hijde ziyda phoji kam nazar awat hain

 

[Neutral_One]

Hi guys,
I am just trying to post my view in this Topic on Surgical Strike,

- We can't confirm on whether surgical strike across LOC or not till some evidences are submitted from GOI

- Before going into this topic why did India announced this ? The reasons for announcing a surgical strike (fake or real) may be :

* There was a lot of pressure mounting on NDA for a retaliation and NDA was claiming it is not as vulnerable as the previous governments (and now there are a serious of terrorist attacks without a retaliation)
* May be just to stop increase their vote banks, by creating patriotic feeling they can increase their vote share
* This might be just to see how the other nations and allies of Pakistan are behaving after a strike
* Or even to check Pakistan's reaction after a strike
​

- Why is Pakistan declining the surgical strike ? the Reasons may be (if surgical strike has really happened):

* The current political party dosen't wanna show that they are vulnerable to attack form India
* Till now Pakistan Army claims to be the more aggressive one and they don't wanna give their army a physiological blow
* May be if they accept in the current situation they will have to carry out a counter attack - which may lead to escalation till WAR
* May be they don't want to show the world there are terrorists across the LOC
​

- Reasons why the surgical strike might have really happened :

* We have 740 km (460 mi) line (LOC) and Indian DGMO is claiming they have crossed LOC around 500 meters to 1.5 km which is really a very small intrusion which might ve gone un-noticed
* This surgical strike affects India's economy as well there is a high possibility they have really attacked​

- Effect of this announcement :

* This has increased the tension in the LOC
* India has dared to announce that it will retaliate into the source of the attack (without expecting Russia or USA to do something about it)
* Everyone comes to know what the other countries would react when there is a surgical strike
* The pressure on NDA has been reduced considerably
​

 

[Counterpunch]

Hi guys,
I am just trying to post my view in this Topic on Surgical Strike,

- We can't confirm on whether surgical strike across LOC or not till some evidences are submitted from GOI

- Before going into this topic why did India announced this ? The reasons for announcing a surgical strike (fake or real) may be :

* There was a lot of pressure mounting on NDA for a retaliation and NDA was claiming it is not as vulnerable as the previous governments (and now there are a serious of terrorist attacks without a retaliation)
* May be just to stop increase their vote banks, by creating patriotic feeling they can increase their vote share
* This might be just to see how the other nations and allies of Pakistan are behaving after a strike
* Or even to check Pakistan's reaction after a strike
​

- Why is Pakistan declining the surgical strike ? the Reasons may be (if surgical strike has really happened):

* The current political party dosen't wanna show that they are vulnerable to attack form India
* Till now Pakistan Army claims to be the more aggressive one and they don't wanna give their army a physiological blow
* May be if they accept in the current situation they will have to carry out a counter attack - which may lead to escalation till WAR
* May be they don't want to show the world there are terrorists across the LOC
​

- Reasons why the surgical strike might have really happened :

* We have 740 km (460 mi) line (LOC) and Indian DGMO is claiming they have crossed LOC around 500 meters to 1.5 km which is really a very small intrusion which might ve gone un-noticed
* This surgical strike affects India's economy as well there is a high possibility they have really attacked​

- Effect of this announcement :

* This has increased the tension in the LOC
* India has dared to announce that it will retaliate into the source of the attack (without expecting Russia or USA to do something about it)
* Everyone comes to know what the other countries would react when there is a surgical strike
* The pressure on NDA has been reduced considerably
​

My responses in Italics under your questions/remarks

- We can't confirm on whether surgical strike across LOC or not till some evidences are submitted from GOI
* There is little sense in hiding evidences unless there are no evidences. If India wants the world to believe it is acting responsibly by not uploading videos, then it might not have gone to the extent of going public with it in the first place. It's a hotchpotch of contradictions these strikes and with every passing day it is becoming increasingly evident

- Before going into this topic why did India announced this ? The reasons for announcing a surgical strike (fake or real) may be :

* There was a lot of pressure mounting on NDA for a retaliation and NDA was claiming it is not as vulnerable as the previous governments (and now there are a serious of terrorist attacks without a retaliation)
> The pressure was not generated by media. It was generated by the Govt itself via hyper aggressive statements, hence the fact that the GoI was under some pressure from the masses to act is factually incorrect. Particularly when you see it in connection with all the other diplomatic attempts now at the world forums to isolate and defame Pakistan, the 'claimed strike agenda' makes all the more sense. There is nothing concrete i.e. no actual strike but only an attempt on softer side of psychological and diplomatic war of words and claims
* May be just to stop increase their vote banks, by creating patriotic feeling they can increase their vote share
> Yes, that's very plausible. However, this cannot be the prime motive
* This might be just to see how the other nations and allies of Pakistan are behaving after a strike
> Again. Not likely. Poking merely for 'checking behavior' of allies of Pakistan is a far fetched assumption. You just cannot predict or war game behaviours of allies like that. To me it was merely an attempted Psy-Op
* Or even to check Pakistan's reaction after a strike
> Ok, the nation that went to war with you so many times and on few occasions have even been the aggressor, how can India afford to just war-game it via ACTUAL strikes? This might have made sense had India been treading in unknown territory.
​

- Why is Pakistan declining the surgical strike ? the Reasons may be (if surgical strike has really happened):

* The current political party dosen't wanna show that they are vulnerable to attack form India
> Pakistan is not declining. Pakistan is just stating the obvious
* Till now Pakistan Army claims to be the more aggressive one and they don't wanna give their army a physiological blow
> This is more a Psy-Op via deceipt and lies rather than an actual strike. Provocation may be to make the other party commit some silly mistake so that it could be projected as irresponsible nation on the world foras. This is in line with the current war of words and defamation propaganda India is carrying out against Pakistan Internationally
* May be if they accept in the current situation they will have to carry out a counter attack - which may lead to escalation till WAR
> So you saying/implying India is all prepared to go to war but only the one that will be started by Pakistan? Makes little sense. If they are prepared to go to war and they really believe in wiping Pakistan from the face of the earth as solution to their problems, then why would they settle for a single covert strike shrouded in so much mystery? Just so they can maintain moral high grounds that the war was not started by themselves? Unlikely. Who will live to judge and write history for them and us.
* May be they don't want to show the world there are terrorists across the LOC
> There are 7 UN observer posts around Pakistan side of LoC. Americas, Israel, Russia and now even India has satellites that can zoom in down to the face recognition level apart from other Intelligence on ground. Why wouldn't they use the imagery and vector the UN team to the areas with Terrorist encampments? Fact is, there are no terrorist camps as claimed by India
​

- Reasons why the surgical strike might have really happened :

* We have 740 km (460 mi) line (LOC) and Indian DGMO is claiming they have crossed LOC around 500 meters to 1.5 km which is really a very small intrusion which might ve gone un-noticed
> So that's more like a BAT opportunistic hit and run from your own side of the border and not a surgical strike per se? The fact is there was no surgical strike as the media has been shown around and the media asked 100s of locals independently about witnessing any incursion. The answers are ALL a big NO. And if there were any camps, how could they be left unguarded to such an extent that the strike from across the border with rocket launchers, guns, grenades stood unnoticed for 2+ hours? This just doesn't add up. India , instead of showing the images or films, can at least point to exact locations publicly so that the media can start asking the GoP to show them around those areas too!

* This surgical strike affects India's economy as well there is a high possibility they have really attacked
> One cannot have everything at the same time. India claims the strikes, the markets goes zigzag without of course waiting for confirmations. Money matters.​

- Effect of this announcement :

* This has increased the tension in the LOC
> Goes without saying
* India has dared to announce that it will retaliate into the source of the attack (without expecting Russia or USA to do something about it)
> Announcements mean nothing. We have had one attack last night in Baramula. It probably had the same source as that or Uri i.e. the Kashmir uprising
* Everyone comes to know what the other countries would react when there is a surgical strike
> Every country has their own peculiar set of circumstances. India or anyone cannot be a standard for others to follow. US does the strikes with impunity. What's stopping India from learning it, let alone setting the standards for the rest of the World?
* The pressure on NDA has been reduced considerably
> You bet? I say, they have triggered the rolling stone down an iced slope and there's nothing stopping it now. Things will only escalate from here, unless both sides chose unanimously to put an end to it. Not going to happen in near future.


Happy commenting and welcome to the board!​

 

[Vapnope]

Surgical strikes are real because nobody in history has ever used Hanuman camouflage before.
Seal team 6 should take notes.

 

[Hannibal of Carthage]

Some shady self-proclaimed "analysts" refuting the strike claims matters zilch to us. We struck you and Pakistan couldn't do anything about it. Accept it and move on

 

[N.Siddiqui]

Finally, CM Delhi, Arvind Kejriwal questioning surgical strike farce...this is falling flat on Modi's face.

 

[Neutral_One]

My responses in Italics under your questions/remarks

- We can't confirm on whether surgical strike across LOC or not till some evidences are submitted from GOI
* There is little sense in hiding evidences unless there are no evidences. If India wants the world to believe it is acting responsibly by not uploading videos, then it might not have gone to the extent of going public with it in the first place. It's a hotchpotch of contradictions these strikes and with every passing day it is becoming increasingly evident

- Before going into this topic why did India announced this ? The reasons for announcing a surgical strike (fake or real) may be :

* There was a lot of pressure mounting on NDA for a retaliation and NDA was claiming it is not as vulnerable as the previous governments (and now there are a serious of terrorist attacks without a retaliation)
> The pressure was not generated by media. It was generated by the Govt itself via hyper aggressive statements, hence the fact that the GoI was under some pressure from the masses to act is factually incorrect. Particularly when you see it in connection with all the other diplomatic attempts now at the world forums to isolate and defame Pakistan, the 'claimed strike agenda' makes all the more sense. There is nothing concrete i.e. no actual strike but only an attempt on softer side of psychological and diplomatic war of words and claims
* May be just to stop increase their vote banks, by creating patriotic feeling they can increase their vote share
> Yes, that's very plausible. However, this cannot be the prime motive
* This might be just to see how the other nations and allies of Pakistan are behaving after a strike
> Again. Not likely. Poking merely for 'checking behavior' of allies of Pakistan is a far fetched assumption. You just cannot predict or war game behaviours of allies like that. To me it was merely an attempted Psy-Op
* Or even to check Pakistan's reaction after a strike
> Ok, the nation that went to war with you so many times and on few occasions have even been the aggressor, how can India afford to just war-game it via ACTUAL strikes? This might have made sense had India been treading in unknown territory.
​

- Why is Pakistan declining the surgical strike ? the Reasons may be (if surgical strike has really happened):

* The current political party dosen't wanna show that they are vulnerable to attack form India
> Pakistan is not declining. Pakistan is just stating the obvious
* Till now Pakistan Army claims to be the more aggressive one and they don't wanna give their army a physiological blow
> This is more a Psy-Op via deceipt and lies rather than an actual strike. Provocation may be to make the other party commit some silly mistake so that it could be projected as irresponsible nation on the world foras. This is in line with the current war of words and defamation propaganda India is carrying out against Pakistan Internationally
* May be if they accept in the current situation they will have to carry out a counter attack - which may lead to escalation till WAR
> So you saying/implying India is all prepared to go to war but only the one that will be started by Pakistan? Makes little sense. If they are prepared to go to war and they really believe in wiping Pakistan from the face of the earth as solution to their problems, then why would they settle for a single covert strike shrouded in so much mystery? Just so they can maintain moral high grounds that the war was not started by themselves? Unlikely. Who will live to judge and write history for them and us.
* May be they don't want to show the world there are terrorists across the LOC
> There are 7 UN observer posts around Pakistan side of LoC. Americas, Israel, Russia and now even India has satellites that can zoom in down to the face recognition level apart from other Intelligence on ground. Why wouldn't they use the imagery and vector the UN team to the areas with Terrorist encampments? Fact is, there are no terrorist camps as claimed by India
​

- Reasons why the surgical strike might have really happened :

* We have 740 km (460 mi) line (LOC) and Indian DGMO is claiming they have crossed LOC around 500 meters to 1.5 km which is really a very small intrusion which might ve gone un-noticed
> So that's more like a BAT opportunistic hit and run from your own side of the border and not a surgical strike per se? The fact is there was no surgical strike as the media has been shown around and the media asked 100s of locals independently about witnessing any incursion. The answers are ALL a big NO. And if there were any camps, how could they be left unguarded to such an extent that the strike from across the border with rocket launchers, guns, grenades stood unnoticed for 2+ hours? This just doesn't add up. India , instead of showing the images or films, can at least point to exact locations publicly so that the media can start asking the GoP to show them around those areas too!

* This surgical strike affects India's economy as well there is a high possibility they have really attacked
> One cannot have everything at the same time. India claims the strikes, the markets goes zigzag without of course waiting for confirmations. Money matters.​

- Effect of this announcement :

* This has increased the tension in the LOC
> Goes without saying
* India has dared to announce that it will retaliate into the source of the attack (without expecting Russia or USA to do something about it)
> Announcements mean nothing. We have had one attack last night in Baramula. It probably had the same source as that or Uri i.e. the Kashmir uprising
* Everyone comes to know what the other countries would react when there is a surgical strike
> Every country has their own peculiar set of circumstances. India or anyone cannot be a standard for others to follow. US does the strikes with impunity. What's stopping India from learning it, let alone setting the standards for the rest of the World?
* The pressure on NDA has been reduced considerably
> You bet? I say, they have triggered the rolling stone down an iced slope and there's nothing stopping it now. Things will only escalate from here, unless both sides chose unanimously to put an end to it. Not going to happen in near future.


Happy commenting and welcome to the board!​

I came to this forum to understand the mindset of a Pakistanis, your perspective really helped , Thanks.
We people from both countries believe our Army and government very much, that is the main problem. I really don't want any Pakistani citizens to be hurt and I guess the same goes to you people. We are just against governments which are ruling the other side. Now either side governments cant support friendship because if they do they will lose votes and they can't rule anymore.I think all these things are done just for increasing the enmity and increase their vote shares. I have a friend in here in UK Usman, he is from Pakistan he is a very good guy and dosen't even wanna hurt anyone with his words, and we were able to get along as the culture is similar when compared to Europeans or Chinese (Note : I don't even speak Hindi, I am from South India). He is the main reason I started analysing why India Vs Pakistan fights started in the first palace. I would say have British succeeded in dividing us and making friends into foes, so that none of them becomes a developed nation threatening the British anytime soon.

Solutions :
- Above 90% of the people becoming educated
- Eradicating poverty
- Kashmir Issue (We can about this speak once we maintain peace in that region first under their civilian govt and the borders can be safeguarded by the respective armies )
- Aggressive economic development (So that lifestyle of people are changed and everyone is given at-least the basic amenities )

Note : Guys this is just my perspective .... if any one feels otherwise comment No trolling please

 

[Counterpunch]

I came to this forum to understand the mindset of a Pakistanis, your perspective really helped , Thanks.
We people from both countries believe our Army and government very much, that is the main problem. I really don't want any Pakistani citizens to be hurt and I guess the same goes to you people. We are just against governments which are ruling the other side. Now either side governments cant support friendship because if they do they will lose votes and they can't rule anymore.I think all these things are done just for increasing the enmity and increase their vote shares. I have a friend in here in UK Usman, he is from Pakistan he is a very good guy and dosen't even wanna hurt anyone with his words, and we were able to get along as the culture is similar when compared to Europeans or Chinese (Note : I don't even speak Hindi, I am from South India). He is the main reason I started analysing why India Vs Pakistan fights started in the first palace. I would say have British succeeded in dividing us and making friends into foes, so that none of them becomes a developed nation threatening the British anytime soon.

Solutions :
- Above 90% of the people becoming educated
- Eradicating poverty
- Kashmir Issue (We can about this speak once we maintain peace in that region first under their civilian govt and the borders can be safeguarded by the respective armies )
- Aggressive economic development (So that lifestyle of people are changed and everyone is given at-least the basic amenities )

Note : Guys this is just my perspective .... if any one feels otherwise comment No trolling please

Hi Mate!

Good to know that

In my personal opinion an online forum should be for learning a thing or two, and not at all for troll wars. Those who troll around and pretend appearing all macho have never had a real fight in their entire life, let alone fighting on the borders but they are a pain in the behind nonetheless for the moderators and genuine posters/readers alike

> Coming to your solutions, yes you will never have an argument (on personal scales) turn into brawl if sanity prevailed and education kicked in at the right time. At national levels, education might not be considered an antidote to war in absolute terms, however on a considerable scale it would slow down the escalation of things as more educated masses will have better ability to analyse the consequences of any war and will have softened stances resulting in lesser local pressure on the governments to act.
But as brilliant as it might seem, the achieving of this ideal is far from possible. Case in point are the 'more' educated nations doing things that are silliest and criminal. Hoax of Iraq's WMD's and the educated masses of UK and the US buying into Governments crap. In fact even a serious attempt to classify and agree the world to a single definition of 'education' will make people go to war

> As for poverty; yes it could be a major factor when evaluating crime rates or law and order situations within the country but not a very valid argument when we are evaluating border strife, since the wars are chosen, planned, and made inevitable by those that are not poor at all. It is not poverty or financial stability that determines why people follow their rulers. A well off person cannot still stand on his own and will still need someone to lead and someone to defend his freedom. So, its like eventually getting back to the same ground for both the poor and rich.

> Economic development can provide better living to people in the longer run and look like covering for the above 2 points - the points that seem to have failed themselves in curtailing any insanity or selfish game playing from the top brass

Broadly speaking, the above 3 factors alone are not enough to evaluate the reasons 'why nations go to war'

P.S: Your friend Usman, is his full name Usman Rafiq?

Enjoy your stay!

Regards