Indus Pakistan
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Mention CPEC and it will evoke strong response. One camp thinks it's the four letter magic that will turn Pakistan into first world economy. Then there are others who are ever dismissive and regard it as hype that the gullible Pakistani public swallow much as many decades ago they lapped up "roti, kapra makan". Pakistani public have been promised all sorts over the decades but nothing ever came out of big promises. The only way most could improve their economic lot was either migrate to the West (legally or illegally) or sell their soul and body to some Arab employer in the Gulf.
I have done lot's of reading on CPEC and I must state here that find it the biggest opportunity for Pakistan since 1960s Ayub's honeymoon with America. In fact I feel if Pakistan fails to rise to the challange of CPEC than something like this might not come again for another half a century. This indeed could be game changer for Pakistan.
Before I move on to where Pakistan could trip up I need to look at the theoretical basis of CPEC. Is the whole idea flawed for if it is then however it is excuted it is bound to fail. I have done lot's of reading on this subject and am convinced the idea is 100% sound.
The whole CPEC is born out of what is happening in the huge country in the north east of Pakistan - China. The Chinese economy is heading to be pivot of the world. As it expands inexorably like fire feeding on oxgen it needs to spread everywhere. Right now Chinese have reached a point where they are looking at making a impact on the four corners of the earth. Pakistan happens to be right next to this powerhouse.
I have travelled widely and have been surprised at how mediocre peoples in mediocre countries are doing better than Pakistan. Take Jamaica, Morocco, Moldavia, Romania, Mexico, Italy or Greece. Well the reason is simple. location, location, location. Pakistan is in part of the world where we are cut off from the economic engines of the world. All we had was backward countries around us. There was chance in 1970s of Iran taking off and becoming a regional driver but that came of the rails in 1979. Any positives since have been snuffed by American sanction on Iran to the point where we can't even import gas from there, Countres in Western Europe are feeding on Russian gas from Siberia but we can't even get gas from next door.
However countries like Jamaica or Mexico have USA next door. It is impossible to fail being so close to the world's largest economic engine although I guess it takes Haitian's to even miss that golden opportunity. Countries like Romania, Greece just feed off from the North Western European economic powers (UK, France, Germany) and even Marocco benefits from that.
Pakistan on other hand has been cut off entirely from the world's premier economic engines. However that is about to change. We have seen in the last two decades the rise of China. What is happening in China has never been witnessed in human history. The rise of US post 1900 barely comes close to what is happening in China. Now China is looking to explode outwards with it's economic legions.
The whole idea of CPEC rests on the Chinese province of Xinjiang encircled in red above. It has population of only 20 million with two node points. The city of Ürümqi marked U and Kashgar marked K on the map above. Urumqi has taken off as it is turning into the Chinese window into Central Asia. Trade with Central Asia is centred at Urumqi. The Chinese are now looking to look even farther west into Russia and Europe. So Urumqi is set to grow in way only Chinese cities grow. Urumqi 2016.
This city is going to be used as the base for Chinese drive in Central Asia and Europe. The other major node in Xinjiang province is Kashgar which is marked K on the map above. This city is strategically placed to be the Chinese window into Pakistan and is the terminal point of the Karakorum Highway. Kashgar is by Chinese standards stagnating.
Much as Urumqi city is the base for Chinese move into Central Asia and farther Europe Kashgar could be Chinese base for move into Pakistan and further from Gwadar into Middle East or Africa. This has not happened.
The simple reason is Kashgar is not connected through proper physical infrastructure and lacks any human linkages. Almost like how Amritsar and Lahore are next door but there is hardly any human interaction because of political reasons.One of things often pointed out by sceptics like @Syed.Ali.Haider is that even if the roads are built linking Kashgar to Gwadar besides a few trucks what exactly is going to be transported.
Well the mistake that people like him make is they measure what is now and from that extrapolate what will be after. This would be like me looking at this desert tract below and saying what is the point of building a canal through there? Look there is nothing there but sand? Maybe the few camels there their riders might benefit by have access to water.
However that would be wrong. Once you build that canal that would suddenly make the land around it open to economic exploitation. All you have to do is manage and nurture human entrepreneurial spirit. Then before you know there will be green farms, towns will take root, industry tending to the farms will crop up and in time will move up the economic ladder with all sort of economic activity.
In the same way there is economic potential but there is no physical infrastructure. This is where CPEC comes in. People also mention certain bottlenecks like Karakorum mountains restricting heavy traffic. Well over 50 years aho when China and Pakistan were dirt poor they both blasted and hand carved the Karakorum Highway through the mountains. Today China has done wonders. She has built the highest railway to Tibet. It is wonder of modern engineering.
Link > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qinghai–Tibet_Railway
Therefore the Karakorums are nothing to be feared. What the Chinese are doing is laying the basis of CPEC. This is a sequential process. As the basic corridor is laid suddenly similar to how canal through desert suddenly opens new economic prospects the same will happen here. All then that is needed is the Chinese flair anddrive in entrepenurial to take root. Kashgar will become the staging post for that. From there the Chinese will spill down the CPEC.
Now I move to the practical aspects of CPEC and where I fear Pakistan might stumble. For CPEC to work Pakistan must work and think like a business. No ideaology. No preaching. No judging. No asking questions about what religion you are. No enforcing your morals on others. Just be business like. I have had significant interaction with Chinese. They are mostly entirely faithless and atheist to the core. They don't like religion and in particular they don't like Islam which they see as superstitous and hindrance in the ways of the world. Islam is far better accomodated in the West than China. any illusions and see how Muslim's in China are regulated. The hordes of Pakistani's jamaats who send mullahs abroad to the West to preach and convert would get the short sharp end of Chinese police if they even dared touch foot in China. which is exactly why you never get Tablighi groups going to China.
Quote
"On March 27, 2007, female students from Jamia Hafsa kidnapped three women, who they accused of running a brothel, and seized two policemen.[21] All of the women were released after supposedly confessing to running the brothel and were shown on the television wearing burqas. Also due in part to an intercession from the Chinese Ambassador, Luo Zhaohui.[22]
Quote
"Students continued to occupy the library and challenge governmental control by raiding a brothel.[15] They also kidnapped ten Chinese nationals, as well as several law enforcement officials, women, and children.[15
Link > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Lal_Masjid
Therefore if CPEC is going to go beyond stage 1 Pakistan will have accomodate thousands of Chinese moving along the CPEC and give them space to be who they are without restricting them or annoying them with our stupid religious or archaic cultural practices. The Chinese although from the east are more western in their thinking than westerners. In short Pakistani's are going to have to do crash course in behaving like secularists or we will have more Lal Masjid type of incidents.
The other apect is law and order. CPEC must have reliable law enforcement. The regulatory bodies must be businesss friendly. If this can be achieved trhan CPEC will move from Stage 1 to 2,3,4,5 and on. Along the CPEC Chinese driven trade will lead to new business opportunties. Many lower tier manufacturing units will move to Pakistan along the CPEC. In short CPEC will help over time for Pakistan to get tied to the Chines economic engine. This would mean trade would go up the CPEC into China and even seek markets in Central Asia. For example raw matarials might land in Gwadar to be transported along CPEC to China and even as far as Kazakistan. Chinese mobile phone manufactuers might set up facility in Islamabad and the finished products moved north into China or south to Gwadar to be sold in Middle East in Africa. The possibilities are endless.
As this would take off the traffic along CPEC woild increase. Gwadar would see increased tonnage. This would mean roads being expanded. New rail lines being laid to handle the extra traffic. Therefore the potential s there. Can Pakistan rise to the challange?
That is the billion dollar question. My own opinion is our religious lobby will cause problems as increasing numbers of Chinese colllide with our medieval minded citizens. We saw that in the Lal Masjid incident and the harassing of Chinese citizens. However I think the Chinese are pouring lot of money into CPEC and they don't do this for nothing. The Chinese government behind the scenes will let our leaders know that they don't take any crap.
I think that is already happening behind the scenes. I believe the Chinese Communist leadership has mde it known to our military and civilian leaders what they expect. General Raheel knows this and that's why the army is raising entire division to secure the Chinese. In addition the army is asking to have full role in the CPEC. I think the army has been told by the Chinese that they will not expect to get messed around. In sum the Chinese are not American's. The American's talk and talk. The Chinese talk less but in flick of finger will bend you over.
However the fact is China is about to "go out". China will spread here wings all over the world and Pakistan gas unique opportunity to take advantage of this. There is noe masive oversupply of many Chinese industries and they need to go abroad to find new markets as well as places to outsupply manufacturing. Don't forget when you capture a market you need to make sure it stays healthy so it can buy your goods. EC is example of this. The Greeks migt buy German cars, German engineering products but equally all Greek agriculture products are exported to Germany etc and farms recieve German investment so that Greeks can afford to buy German products.
Link > http://www.cbbc.org/cbbc/media/cbbc_media/One-Belt-One-Road-main-body.pdf
Link > http://www.ecfr.eu/page/-/China_analysis_belt_road.pdf
Link >http://www.bloombergbriefs.com/content/uploads/sites/2/2015/07/SC_062615-OBOR.pdf
I have done lot's of reading on CPEC and I must state here that find it the biggest opportunity for Pakistan since 1960s Ayub's honeymoon with America. In fact I feel if Pakistan fails to rise to the challange of CPEC than something like this might not come again for another half a century. This indeed could be game changer for Pakistan.
Before I move on to where Pakistan could trip up I need to look at the theoretical basis of CPEC. Is the whole idea flawed for if it is then however it is excuted it is bound to fail. I have done lot's of reading on this subject and am convinced the idea is 100% sound.
The whole CPEC is born out of what is happening in the huge country in the north east of Pakistan - China. The Chinese economy is heading to be pivot of the world. As it expands inexorably like fire feeding on oxgen it needs to spread everywhere. Right now Chinese have reached a point where they are looking at making a impact on the four corners of the earth. Pakistan happens to be right next to this powerhouse.
I have travelled widely and have been surprised at how mediocre peoples in mediocre countries are doing better than Pakistan. Take Jamaica, Morocco, Moldavia, Romania, Mexico, Italy or Greece. Well the reason is simple. location, location, location. Pakistan is in part of the world where we are cut off from the economic engines of the world. All we had was backward countries around us. There was chance in 1970s of Iran taking off and becoming a regional driver but that came of the rails in 1979. Any positives since have been snuffed by American sanction on Iran to the point where we can't even import gas from there, Countres in Western Europe are feeding on Russian gas from Siberia but we can't even get gas from next door.
However countries like Jamaica or Mexico have USA next door. It is impossible to fail being so close to the world's largest economic engine although I guess it takes Haitian's to even miss that golden opportunity. Countries like Romania, Greece just feed off from the North Western European economic powers (UK, France, Germany) and even Marocco benefits from that.
Pakistan on other hand has been cut off entirely from the world's premier economic engines. However that is about to change. We have seen in the last two decades the rise of China. What is happening in China has never been witnessed in human history. The rise of US post 1900 barely comes close to what is happening in China. Now China is looking to explode outwards with it's economic legions.
The whole idea of CPEC rests on the Chinese province of Xinjiang encircled in red above. It has population of only 20 million with two node points. The city of Ürümqi marked U and Kashgar marked K on the map above. Urumqi has taken off as it is turning into the Chinese window into Central Asia. Trade with Central Asia is centred at Urumqi. The Chinese are now looking to look even farther west into Russia and Europe. So Urumqi is set to grow in way only Chinese cities grow. Urumqi 2016.
This city is going to be used as the base for Chinese drive in Central Asia and Europe. The other major node in Xinjiang province is Kashgar which is marked K on the map above. This city is strategically placed to be the Chinese window into Pakistan and is the terminal point of the Karakorum Highway. Kashgar is by Chinese standards stagnating.
Much as Urumqi city is the base for Chinese move into Central Asia and farther Europe Kashgar could be Chinese base for move into Pakistan and further from Gwadar into Middle East or Africa. This has not happened.
The simple reason is Kashgar is not connected through proper physical infrastructure and lacks any human linkages. Almost like how Amritsar and Lahore are next door but there is hardly any human interaction because of political reasons.One of things often pointed out by sceptics like @Syed.Ali.Haider is that even if the roads are built linking Kashgar to Gwadar besides a few trucks what exactly is going to be transported.
Well the mistake that people like him make is they measure what is now and from that extrapolate what will be after. This would be like me looking at this desert tract below and saying what is the point of building a canal through there? Look there is nothing there but sand? Maybe the few camels there their riders might benefit by have access to water.
However that would be wrong. Once you build that canal that would suddenly make the land around it open to economic exploitation. All you have to do is manage and nurture human entrepreneurial spirit. Then before you know there will be green farms, towns will take root, industry tending to the farms will crop up and in time will move up the economic ladder with all sort of economic activity.
In the same way there is economic potential but there is no physical infrastructure. This is where CPEC comes in. People also mention certain bottlenecks like Karakorum mountains restricting heavy traffic. Well over 50 years aho when China and Pakistan were dirt poor they both blasted and hand carved the Karakorum Highway through the mountains. Today China has done wonders. She has built the highest railway to Tibet. It is wonder of modern engineering.
Link > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qinghai–Tibet_Railway
Therefore the Karakorums are nothing to be feared. What the Chinese are doing is laying the basis of CPEC. This is a sequential process. As the basic corridor is laid suddenly similar to how canal through desert suddenly opens new economic prospects the same will happen here. All then that is needed is the Chinese flair anddrive in entrepenurial to take root. Kashgar will become the staging post for that. From there the Chinese will spill down the CPEC.
Now I move to the practical aspects of CPEC and where I fear Pakistan might stumble. For CPEC to work Pakistan must work and think like a business. No ideaology. No preaching. No judging. No asking questions about what religion you are. No enforcing your morals on others. Just be business like. I have had significant interaction with Chinese. They are mostly entirely faithless and atheist to the core. They don't like religion and in particular they don't like Islam which they see as superstitous and hindrance in the ways of the world. Islam is far better accomodated in the West than China. any illusions and see how Muslim's in China are regulated. The hordes of Pakistani's jamaats who send mullahs abroad to the West to preach and convert would get the short sharp end of Chinese police if they even dared touch foot in China. which is exactly why you never get Tablighi groups going to China.
Quote
"On March 27, 2007, female students from Jamia Hafsa kidnapped three women, who they accused of running a brothel, and seized two policemen.[21] All of the women were released after supposedly confessing to running the brothel and were shown on the television wearing burqas. Also due in part to an intercession from the Chinese Ambassador, Luo Zhaohui.[22]
Quote
"Students continued to occupy the library and challenge governmental control by raiding a brothel.[15] They also kidnapped ten Chinese nationals, as well as several law enforcement officials, women, and children.[15
Link > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Lal_Masjid
Therefore if CPEC is going to go beyond stage 1 Pakistan will have accomodate thousands of Chinese moving along the CPEC and give them space to be who they are without restricting them or annoying them with our stupid religious or archaic cultural practices. The Chinese although from the east are more western in their thinking than westerners. In short Pakistani's are going to have to do crash course in behaving like secularists or we will have more Lal Masjid type of incidents.
The other apect is law and order. CPEC must have reliable law enforcement. The regulatory bodies must be businesss friendly. If this can be achieved trhan CPEC will move from Stage 1 to 2,3,4,5 and on. Along the CPEC Chinese driven trade will lead to new business opportunties. Many lower tier manufacturing units will move to Pakistan along the CPEC. In short CPEC will help over time for Pakistan to get tied to the Chines economic engine. This would mean trade would go up the CPEC into China and even seek markets in Central Asia. For example raw matarials might land in Gwadar to be transported along CPEC to China and even as far as Kazakistan. Chinese mobile phone manufactuers might set up facility in Islamabad and the finished products moved north into China or south to Gwadar to be sold in Middle East in Africa. The possibilities are endless.
As this would take off the traffic along CPEC woild increase. Gwadar would see increased tonnage. This would mean roads being expanded. New rail lines being laid to handle the extra traffic. Therefore the potential s there. Can Pakistan rise to the challange?
That is the billion dollar question. My own opinion is our religious lobby will cause problems as increasing numbers of Chinese colllide with our medieval minded citizens. We saw that in the Lal Masjid incident and the harassing of Chinese citizens. However I think the Chinese are pouring lot of money into CPEC and they don't do this for nothing. The Chinese government behind the scenes will let our leaders know that they don't take any crap.
I think that is already happening behind the scenes. I believe the Chinese Communist leadership has mde it known to our military and civilian leaders what they expect. General Raheel knows this and that's why the army is raising entire division to secure the Chinese. In addition the army is asking to have full role in the CPEC. I think the army has been told by the Chinese that they will not expect to get messed around. In sum the Chinese are not American's. The American's talk and talk. The Chinese talk less but in flick of finger will bend you over.
However the fact is China is about to "go out". China will spread here wings all over the world and Pakistan gas unique opportunity to take advantage of this. There is noe masive oversupply of many Chinese industries and they need to go abroad to find new markets as well as places to outsupply manufacturing. Don't forget when you capture a market you need to make sure it stays healthy so it can buy your goods. EC is example of this. The Greeks migt buy German cars, German engineering products but equally all Greek agriculture products are exported to Germany etc and farms recieve German investment so that Greeks can afford to buy German products.
Link > http://www.cbbc.org/cbbc/media/cbbc_media/One-Belt-One-Road-main-body.pdf
Link > http://www.ecfr.eu/page/-/China_analysis_belt_road.pdf
Link >http://www.bloombergbriefs.com/content/uploads/sites/2/2015/07/SC_062615-OBOR.pdf
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