Countries that suffer when the oil price plummets

[al-Hasani]

@Ceylal

Upper land?

Yes and you should consider that KSA and the GCC are practically one county and we control 50% of the WORLD'S oil and gas production and reserves. Let alone having a large number of shale gas too.

UAE alone has almost as big an economy as 80 million big Iran. It's a joke when Iranians discuss economy.

The GDP per capita of Qatar is the highest in the world and other GCC states are among the richest societies out there despite having many retarded rules that hinder economic growth.

The GDP per capita of KSA is higher than the EU average. That will never be a reality in Iran.

GCC alone is richer than Iran will ever be. Let alone the entire Arab world.

It's your country whose economy is in shatters and your currency that is less valuable than toilet paper.

It's not us that have a problem.

This oil policy also hits you hard. Not us.

An interesting thing is that both China and Saudi (along with the GCC) are the main "trade surplus" nations in the world, and also amongst the world's largest creditor nations.

China is our biggest trade partner too.

You don't stand a chance so quite it.

We (GCC) basically own TRILLIONS of dollars in investments abroad. You owe 0 in comparison and those that you owned or the few that you owe have been confisticated or can be any second.

Your fake wannabe Arab Mullah's will rule your country as well for your entire life. So enjoy.

Maybe you can be lucky and join the Farsi migrant community in the UAE. Those that enrich the UAE economy. After all better than staying in Iran.

The GDP (nominal) of the GCC is almost 2 billion as of 2014 while the GDP per capita is around 35.000 US dollars. Iran is not even CLOSE to those numbers. Let alone natural riches. Investments abroad etc. Our GDP is 3-4 times bigger and our GDP per capita is 6-7 times bigger!

@BLACKEAGLE @JUBA @Full Moon @Mosamania @Bubblegum Crisis @Altamimi @Ahmed Jo @ebray @Halimi @Rakan.SA @fahd tamimi @Yzd Khalifa @burning_phoneix @Awadd @Arabi etc.

Also all of Iran's oil and gas fields are located just across the Gulf in the Arab inhabited areas of Iran. It's not found in Qom, Tabriz, Tehran or Mashhad near Turkmenistan…..

"Upper hand" my ***.

 

[raptor22]

@al-Hasani

Why do you compare Iran with entire PGCC+Saudi? you are doing it wrong, 6 countries vs 1 country .. it doesn't get you anywhere ......

Dropping oil prices is nothing but self-mutilation, you wanna sell your natural resources below the average spot price to get Iran on its knees sth that will never happen, actually you are doing a favor to us unintentionally . As @Serpentine once mentioned we experienced much worse situation during Iran-Iraq war, as matter of fact all our budget of war was around 24 billion $ in 8 years while it bled entire Arab monarchies dry, they bankrolled Iraq 200 billion $ , and by the end you made a coalition to attack Iraq. Despite all expenses and efforts your strategies never worked properly in Syria, Lebanon, Afghanistan,Yemen and Iraq and Iran has got upper hand in those countries while we are under sanction.

We are losing three times more than Iran? Hahahahahaha, really its in propaganda machine is a strong one indeed. Do some real research then come back to me kiddo.

Al-Hasani stop wasting time with Kahamenie cock sucking wishers, just like a dog throw a Khamenie sized dildo their way and they will go running after it with their tongues a meter away.

Once you said you are a researcher, an Iranian idiom says: a tree would bend as it fruits which means "The more noble, the more humble" ... please watch your language ...

 

[al-Hasani]

@raptor22



Just look at the facts on the ground. You do not have any upper hand anywhere. Even in your own failed, sanctioned and poor country. GCC is one unit. It's all Arabia and all the Arabian Peninsula. We are one unit on almost all fronts. You attack one of us and you get attacked by the rest. Anyway countries such as Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and UAE should be part of KSA anyway. It's Eastern Arabia of which the majority is in KSA and always was.

I suggest to continue to live in your dream land while omitting the facts on the ground and your own sad reality.

 

[Mosamania]

@al-Hasani

Why do you compare Iran with entire PGCC+Saudi? you are doing it wrong, 6 countries vs 1 country .. it doesn't get you anywhere ......

Dropping oil prices is nothing but self-mutilation, you wanna sell your natural resources below the average spot price to get Iran on its knees sth that will never happen, actually you are doing a favor to us unintentionally . As @Serpentine once mentioned we experienced much worse situation during Iran-Iraq war, as matter of fact all our budget of war was around 24 billion $ in 8 years while it bled entire Arab monarchies dry, they bankrolled Iraq 200 billion $ , and by the end you made a coalition to attack Iraq. Despite all expenses and efforts your strategies never worked properly in Syria, Lebanon, Afghanistan,Yemen and Iraq and Iran has got upper hand in those countries while we are under sanction.






Once you said you are a researcher, an Iranian idiom says: a tree would bend as it fruits which means "The more noble, the more humble" ... please watch your language ...

You are right, I apologize for my earlier remarks, I should practice tighter self control, however, don't be illusioned that the situation in all aforementioned countries is over, there is no upper hand yet, in fact while Iraq, Syria and Lebanon were completely under Iran grip, this is no longer the situation, we are not on the defensive for us to fail, we are on the offensive and even if one percent is out of Iran control, we are gaining from the original view point.

So make no mistake, there is no upper hand yet, as far as things stand, by directly participating in the coalition gave Saudi arabia a political upper hand.

 

[Halimi]

Syria, Iraq and Lebanon will not hold in Iran's hands. Sunni Muslims are the demographic majority and the historic establishment in the Arab Mashriq, and over the past three years have slowly thrown off Iranian hegemony: Assad has lost most of his country and is resting his hopes on a minority with rapidly-diminishing manpower, while Lebanon has absorbed 1.5 million Syrian Sunni Muslims who are exposing Hezbollah's back, and Iraq is breaking away from Iranian hands and Baghdad central control.

Iran's regional project is in flames. Its economy is hemorrhaging. Its 'anti-imperialist' rhetoric has been exposed as gibberish as Zarif and Rouhani hug and smooch with the so-called 'Great Devil'. Iran's standing in the Arab World has collapsed and across the Muslim World. It has a serious demographic problem as birth rates plunge. It's game over.

Therefore, the GCC shouldn't lower its aspirations by comparing itself to Iran or seeing Tehran as a regional competitor -- lift your standards and realise that the neo-Safavid project is in its death-throes. GCC's true strategic, geopolitical rival is elsewhere; in my opinion it's Russia.

 

[al-Hasani]

Syria, Iraq and Lebanon will not hold in Iran's hands. Sunni Muslims are the demographic majority and the historic establishment in the Arab Mashriq, and over the past three years have slowly thrown off Iranian hegemony: Assad has lost most of his country and is resting his hopes on a minority with rapidly-diminishing manpower, while Lebanon has absorbed 1.5 million Syrian Sunni Muslims who are exposing Hezbollah's back, and Iraq is breaking away from Iranian hands and Baghdad central control.

Iran's regional project is in flames. Its economy is hemorrhaging. Its 'anti-imperialist' rhetoric has been exposed as gibberish as Zarif and Rouhani hug and smooch with the so-called 'Great Devil'. Iran's standing in the Arab World has collapsed and across the Muslim World. It has a serious demographic problem as birth rates plunge. It's game over.

Therefore, the GCC shouldn't lower its aspirations by comparing itself to Iran or seeing Tehran as a regional competitor -- lift your standards and realise that the neo-Safavid project is in its death-throes. GCC's true strategic, geopolitical rival is elsewhere; in my opinion it's Russia.

Well written brother my Lebanese brother. As we Arabs say then Arabia and Levant are an extension of each other. They are bound to be together like for millenniums before.

P.S: We Arabs don't care about far-away Afghanistan. Don't know where that came from.

 

[New]

@Serpentine, hey dude lets go through the situation on an academic approach.
Oil prices are going down, but how much is it possible for the oil prices to decline?
Analysts suggest that the current american shale reserve production would become no more economically viable for the oil prices below 82 $pb. Hence the minimum price for the oil in a long perspective would be something around 80 $pb.
Such state of oil prices is not a threat neither for Russia nor Iran. Especially considering the fact that there are cold seasons ahead.
But those kinda oil prices (80 $pb) would also put another player out of the economy circle, and who do you think the other one is?
The smuggling oil selling concept would also become no more economical for the ISIS either considering their hard way of producing and transferring system. So the first player reaches it's boundaries in the near future would be ISIS, whom would be deprived of it's major source of income in the near future.
But here comes some interesting scenarios that I'm not gonna explain deeply, a deprived of it's income ISIS would be like a hungry beast, that would have just one option in front. Expansion to reach new sources of income.
3 options available,
1) To invade oil reach region north Iraq, which is not a sane option considering the current US lead coalition to protect those areas.
2) To invade oil reach south Iraq region, which we are seeing some related efforts by ISIS on the news these days, which considering the religion combination of those regions would not be an option in the long run.
3) To invade other remaining oil wells of Syria currently controlled by Assad government:
3-1)The battle would absorb more Assad forces to those areas meaning less Assad forces in other locations which would result to a power vacuum that would help the FSA reviving.
3-2) If ISIS could defeat Assad forces to reach those remaining oil wells it means another major blow to Assad's economical lifeline.
3-3) If ISIS takes the control of those oil wells, it would justify the flattening of those regions by US anti ISIS coalition resulting to a major blow to Assad and ISIS both.
Hence I think the whole idea can be considered a smart move.

 

[raptor22]

You are right, I apologize for my earlier remarks, I should practice tighter self control, however, don't be illusioned that the situation in all aforementioned countries is over, there is no upper hand yet, in fact while Iraq, Syria and Lebanon were completely under Iran grip, this is no longer the situation, we are not on the defensive for us to fail, we are on the offensive and even if one percent is out of Iran control, we are gaining from the original view point.

So make no mistake, there is no upper hand yet, as far as things stand, by directly participating in the coalition gave Saudi arabia a political upper hand.

No problem every one loses his temper ...
I hope there would be a mutual understanding btw two countries regarding regional issues, Iran and Saudi as two major key players in the south west Asia should cooperate to find comprehensive solution for current conflicts instead of fighting ...
I don't wanna fight to prove who has got the upper hand or regional dominance at the moment it's a dynamic game , but I do sure it's a matter of time and hinges on many factors for example on nuclear talks btw Tehran and Washington.

@raptor22



Just look at the facts on the ground. You do not have any upper hand anywhere. Even in your own failed, sanctioned and poor country. GCC is one unit. It's all Arabia and all the Arabian Peninsula. We are one unit on almost all fronts. You attack one of us and you get attacked by the rest. Anyway countries such as Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and UAE should be part of KSA anyway. It's Eastern Arabia of which the majority is in KSA and always was.

I suggest to continue to live in your dream land while omitting the facts on the ground and your own sad reality.

Did I said unity of GCC is not good? who wanna attack you? I dunno what citizens of aforementioned countries might think of annexing to Saudis to form a new union or country due to serios problems amongst members , I said your comparison should be done btw 2 states.

 

[Serpentine]

@Serpentine, hey dude lets go through the situation on an academic approach.
Oil prices are going down, but how much is it possible for the oil prices to decline?
Analysts suggest that the current american shale reserve production would become no more economically viable for the oil prices below 82 $pb. Hence the minimum price for the oil in a long perspective would be something around 80 $pb.
Such state of oil prices is not a threat neither for Russia nor Iran. Especially considering the fact that there are cold seasons ahead.
But those kinda oil prices (80 $pb) would also put another player out of the economy circle, and who do you think the other one is?
The smuggling oil selling concept would also become no more economical for the ISIS either considering their hard way of producing and transferring system. So the first player reaches it's boundaries in the near future would be ISIS, whom would be deprived of it's major source of income in the near future.
But here comes some interesting scenarios that I'm not gonna explain deeply, a deprived of it's income ISIS would be like a hungry beast, that would have just one option in front. Expansion to reach new sources of income.
3 options available,
1) To invade oil reach region north Iraq, which is not a sane option considering the current US lead coalition to protect those areas.
2) To invade oil reach south Iraq region, which we are seeing some related efforts by ISIS on the news these days, which considering the religion combination of those regions would not be an option in the long run.
3) To invade other remaining oil wells of Syria currently controlled by Assad government:
3-1)The battle would absorb more Assad forces to those areas meaning less Assad forces in other locations which would result to a power vacuum that would help the FSA reviving.
3-2) If ISIS could defeat Assad forces to reach those remaining oil wells it means another major blow to Assad's economical lifeline.
3-3) If ISIS takes the control of those oil wells, it would justify the flattening of those regions by US anti ISIS coalition resulting to a major blow to Assad and ISIS both.
Hence I think the whole idea can be considered a smart move.

Excellent analysis mate, that's a new way to look at it.

I believe IS hasn't been a priority to anyone who is behind the declining oil prices, because they can't put their eggs in IS basket, a group that each and every move of it is unreliable and somehow unpredictable.

Assad doesn't produce that much oil to rely on for his survival, they can even bomb government controlled oil wells 'mistakenly', if you know what I mean, without having to take the risk of losing billions of dollars from their own revenues.

I think the main target of this decline are Iran and Russia, but they are stupid if they think they can do to Russia and Iran what they did to Soviet Union after 1985 which led to its collapse. Oil prices will not remain like this and the demand is going to increase as the winter approaches. Also U.S doesn't want to lose feasibility of shale oil extraction, so 2 scenarios will be ahead: 1) The oil prices will go down further, hence U.S will have to reduce its production to make it economically profitable 2) U.S won't allow oil prices to go down further by different means and it may even increase for the reason you mentioned too: the winter.

So this plan is doomed to fail. Also, countries who are producing more oil are losing more, they can't afford to lose further by losing billions of of dollars more in case things doesn't change for Iran and Russia.

 

[New]

Excellent analysis mate, that's a new way to look at it.

I believe IS hasn't been a priority to anyone who is behind the declining oil prices, because they can't put their bags in IS basket, a group that each and every move of it is unreliable and somehow unpredictable.

Assad doesn't produce that much oil to rely on for his survival, they can even bomb government controlled oil wells 'mistakenly', if you know what I mean, without having to take the risk of losing billions of dollars from their own revenues.

I think the main target of this decline are Iran and Russia, but they are stupid if they think they can do to Russia and Iran what they did to Soviet Union after 1985 which led to its collapse. Oil prices will not remain like this and the demand is going to increase as the winter approaches. Also U.S doesn't want to lose feasibility of shale oil extraction, so 2 scenarios will be ahead: 1) The oil prices will go down further, hence U.S will have to reduce its production to make it economically profitable 2) U.S won't allow oil prices to go down further by different means and it may even increase for the reason you mentioned too: the winter.

So this plan is doomed to fail. Also, countries who are producing more oil are losing more, they can't afford to lose further by losing billions of of dollars more in case things doesn't change for Iran and Russia.

As personally I do believe that the, minimum lower price for Oil, the cold seasons ahead, the difference of the situation from the whole Soviet union situation (existence of oil hungry developing nations like Brazil, India, China, ...) and many other reasons are just too much to believe the fact that the whole idea behind the incident is not intended to make countries like Iran and Russia suffer, rather more like a coordinated move, but all we could do for now is to wait and see what happens in the near future.
But take this prediction from me, ISIS would go mad and wild in the coming weeks and months.


PS: @rmi5 I would be happy to hear your opinion on that sort of analyze too.

 

[raptor22]

@Serpentine, hey dude lets go through the situation on an academic approach.
Oil prices are going down, but how much is it possible for the oil prices to decline?
Analysts suggest that the current american shale reserve production would become no more economically viable for the oil prices below 82 $pb. Hence the minimum price for the oil in a long perspective would be something around 80 $pb.
Such state of oil prices is not a threat neither for Russia nor Iran. Especially considering the fact that there are cold seasons ahead.
But those kinda oil prices (80 $pb) would also put another player out of the economy circle, and who do you think the other one is?
The smuggling oil selling concept would also become no more economical for the ISIS either considering their hard way of producing and transferring system. So the first player reaches it's boundaries in the near future would be ISIS, whom would be deprived of it's major source of income in the near future.
But here comes some interesting scenarios that I'm not gonna explain deeply, a deprived of it's income ISIS would be like a hungry beast, that would have just one option in front. Expansion to reach new sources of income.
3 options available,
1) To invade oil reach region north Iraq, which is not a sane option considering the current US lead coalition to protect those areas.
2) To invade oil reach south Iraq region, which we are seeing some related efforts by ISIS on the news these days, which considering the religion combination of those regions would not be an option in the long run.
3) To invade other remaining oil wells of Syria currently controlled by Assad government:
3-1)The battle would absorb more Assad forces to those areas meaning less Assad forces in other locations which would result to a power vacuum that would help the FSA reviving.
3-2) If ISIS could defeat Assad forces to reach those remaining oil wells it means another major blow to Assad's economical lifeline.
3-3) If ISIS takes the control of those oil wells, it would justify the flattening of those regions by US anti ISIS coalition resulting to a major blow to Assad and ISIS both.
Hence I think the whole idea can be considered a smart move.

ISIL sells its oil in black marketl for 30~40 $ per barrel which in comparison by 80$ is nothing and as far as ISIS controls most of the oil fields in eastern Syria ( 60% of Syria’s oil fields) right up to the northeast which is near Turkey borders it costs zero for them to smuggle.

 

[New]

30~40 $ per barrel which in comparison by 80$ is nothing and as far as ISIS

As per the reports they are selling the oil on something around 50 $pb price, considering the points of delivery and the risk factors due to lack of the insurance factors, they are costing for the buyers something around 75 to 85 based on the available reports.
I think the income sources of the ISIL would be the most impacted here.

 

[rmi5]

As personally I do believe that the, minimum lower price for Oil, the cold seasons ahead, the difference of the situation from the whole Soviet union situation (existence of oil hungry developing nations like Brazil, India, China, ...) and many other reasons are just too much to believe the fact that the whole idea behind the incident is not intended to make countries like Iran and Russia suffer, rather more like a coordinated move, but all we could do for now is to wait and see what happens in the near future.
But take this prediction from me, ISIS would go mad and wild in the coming weeks and months.


PS: @rmi5 I would be happy to hear your opinion on that sort of analyze too.

Well, the rumors that i have heard is the same. It's about USA talking with KSA to make oil prices lower. Russian oil wells, have high costs to produce oil unlike cheap extracted ME oil.It would hurt Russia the most, who I believe is the main target. dropping oil prices was what happened during Iran-Iraq war as well, which had a huge negative impact on Soviet Union. Anyway, I doubt oil prices go below 70$ since it causes oil shale production and some Russian oil wells to stop working.

PS. I did not receive alerts for your mentioning. I don't know what's wrong with it.

 

[atatwolf]

Even if ( and a big if ) Azerbaijan agrees, Iran would still require Turkey's acquisence to use BTC Pipeline, which would never come as long as Erdogan , the great sunni Khalifa, is in power in Turkey.

That is right... Iran has ruined their relationship with Azerbaijan and Turkey pretty bad. I don't rule out anything but Iran will be the one who kneels if it wants to be part of the club.

 

[New]

Well, the rumors that i have heard is the same. It's about USA talking with KSA to make oil prices lower. Russian oil wells, have high costs to produce oil unlike cheap extracted ME oil.It would hurt Russia the most, who I believe is the main target. dropping oil prices was what happened during Iran-Iraq war as well, which had a huge negative impact on Soviet Union. Anyway, I doubt oil prices go below 70$ since it causes oil shale production and some Russian oil wells to stop working.

So you are not going for the ISIS being the main target here, too. Then what is your answer to the question about the time of the project. Why the start of the cold season. You know Russia usually reduces it's oil export in the coming seasons due to the domestic need. I think the start of the project in these seasons and time period just means one thing, that it's all being a coordinate move.