Could India block Pakistani ports in case of a war?

[Joe Shearer]

To continue....

It is crucial that a blockade follow a declaration of war (there was none in 1947, in 1965, in 1971 or any other occasion), as otherwise a blockade has questionable legality, meaning that great powers might intervene.

//Until 1827, blockades, as part of economic warfare, were always a part of a war. This changed when France, Russia and Britain came to the aid of the Greek rebels against Turkey. They blockaded the Turkish-occupied coast, which led to the battle of Navarino. War was never declared, however, so it is considered the first pacific — i.e. peaceful — blockade.[8]The first truly pacific blockade, involving no shooting at all, was the British blockade of the Republic of New Granada in 1837, established to compel New Granada to release an imprisoned British consul.//

So a blockade without a declaration of war, a so-called pacific blockade, of the type that blockaded Turkey and later Grenada is no longer possible.

We are left, legally, with @notorious_eagle's preferred option, a 'loose blockade', and a second best, a 'distant blockade'.

I bid you good luck with your complexities and hope you come around to writing the answer soon, I've been eagerly looking forward to your views on the matter and how you think Pakistan would come about neutralizing the threat.

Please do tag me once you get around to it.

I am sorry about the slow pace, and will hurry it up as much as possible. Apologies.

 

[Kaniska]

Yes, certainly; please bear with me, as I am in the middle of some very complicated professional activities and have to balance a number of things. I propose to set the legal background first, then discuss the possible structure and processes that an Indian commander might select, keeping in mind the existing state of Pakistani defences, and finally come to what Pakistan might do to neutralise the threat. I hope that sounds adequate.



True, but I feel that bringing in war objectives may create an overwhelmingly complex scenario. Not one that I can cobble together. I am therefore ignoring those higher objectives and sticking to just a simulation of a blockade and the possible responses.

I understand your point.But i still feel that India and Pakistan will not fight any war with each other. Reason, India do not need to initiate a war as we do not have any serious ambition to occupy any territory of Pakistan...Earlier, there was a possibility of Pakistan to initiate a war due to the control of Non Democratic institutions in their Gov, but with the advent of CPEC, China's influence will prevent Pakistan to waste its energy in any war that does not benifit China in long run...I would rather say, with the progress of CPEC and other China's investment in Pakistan, the chances of military conflict between India and Pakistan will reduce significantly but the usage of Non state actors may increase to score points to each other.

 

[Joe Shearer]

I understand your point.But i still feel that India and Pakistan will not fight any war with each other. Reason, India do not need to initiate a war as we do not have any serious ambition to occupy any territory of Pakistan...Earlier, there was a possibility of Pakistan to initiate a war due to the control of Non Democratic institutions in their Gov, but with the advent of CPEC, China's influence will prevent Pakistan to waste its energy in any war that does not benifit China in long run...I would rather say, with the progress of CPEC and other China's investment in Pakistan, the chances of military conflict between India and Pakistan will reduce significantly but the usage of Non state actors may increase to score points to each other.

Oh, I agree. However, this does not pretend to be anything more than a simulation.

 

[Jackdaws]

Sorry i couldn't help but laugh at this. Not that difficult to create a blockade. You certainly have a great military mind Sir.

How long does India intend to blockade Pakistan so easily?



This seems to be the most likely scenario. A close blockade would result in attrition as PN's coastal batteries have legs of 300km ASM's.

Question is, how long is India willing to establish that blockade?

Don't apologize - I too had to laugh at your question. India does not intend to blockade Pakistan - so your question about duration is futile. I merely said it is possible and not as difficult as some posters here make it out to be. Also, I said its effectiveness may not even make it worth it given that a sea blockage can be circumvented by Pakistan.

 

[Joe Shearer]

The law, elaborated, in point form:

• The UN Security Council decides if a blockade is legal;
• The Security Council can decide on mounting a blockade;
• A blockade can be mounted for self-defence, but must be reported immediately to the Security Council, to ensure maintenance of international peace;
• A blockade cannot stop the passage of ships; it can stop the passage of 'contraband goods'.
• Contraband goods may not be any and every type of goods. There is a permitted list, and selection has to be from that.
• A zone, or area, of blockade must be declared;
• Ships intending to proceed through that are considered to be breaking the blockade;
• The blockading power can stop and inspect such ships, such that
  • The inspection is in the blockaded area;
  • The inspection is in international waters;
  • The inspection is NEVER in the waters of a neutral nation;
• A 'neutral' ship MUST obey the inspection request;
• It may be directed to the nearest port or any other place for inspection;
• Resistance may lead to capture and confiscation;
• Any individuals offering resistance may be lawfully attacked just like any other combatant.

This list of 12 points is a combination of the UN Security Council resolutions and another document called the San Remo Manual, that relates to International Law applicable to Armed Conflicts at Sea, that has not been ratified and serves as guidelines at the moment. It will form the basis for my further posts.

 

[H!TchHiker]

Sir, how do you take the following into account:

1) The recent tests that the outgoing PN chief did, right before he left.
2) The distance from Karachi to Mumbai is approx 890kms

Best Regards

Along with @Joe Shearer insight we need to hear your and @Rashid Mahmood (i believe he is ex-navy professional) opinion on this too...More than a question of CAN its a potential that IN holds but at what cost or how long ..Will this be held in future too ?
though with passage of time this will become more difficult...once Gawadar port is fully operational which is far away from wrt Karachi just 100 km from India..Interesting point in this blockade what will be the reaction of India "IF" China or lets say Turkey or any other country defy and deny the inspection of vessels and continue there journey to the port ?

 

[Rashid Mahmood]

Along with @Joe Shearer insight we need to hear your and @Rashid Mahmood (i believe he is ex-navy professional) opinion on this too...More than a question of CAN its a potential that IN holds but at what cost or how long ..Will this be held in future too ?
though with passage of time this will become more difficult...once Gawadar port is fully operational which is far away from wrt Karachi just 100 km from India..Interesting point in this blockade what will be the reaction of India "IF" China or lets say Turkey or any other country defy and deny the inspection of vessels and continue there journey to the port ?

This topic has been discussed so many times on this forum with no ending, so i'm not interested in indulging into another debate.

For an effective blockade, the ships are to be physically present to enforce it, which is not possible in our scenario with PN having SLCM subs.

The SLOCs will be re routed in any case.

 

[Joe Shearer]

This topic has been discussed so many times on this forum with no ending, so i'm not interested in indulging into another debate.

For an effective blockade, the ships are to be physically present to enforce it, which is not possible in our scenario with PN having SLCM subs.

The SLOCs will be re routed in any case.

Actually, ships do not have to be physically present in close proximity; they can be offshore. Shipping traffic to Pakistani ports have to be stopped and inspected. Subs have counter-measures; they are not invulnerable, either in their bases or at sea. Strategic sea lines of communication are few and far between; unless cargoes are landed in Bandar Abbas, or Chabahar, and shipped across by land, there are no maritime alternatives.

However, if you believe that this is not feasible, so be it.

Thank you for the inputs.

 

[Ace of Spades]

Many thanks. I hope all interested members will read it. This contribution is such a refreshing change "from those" that begin with "Even after losing every war, how can you black, ugly Hindus think about ..."

Thanks again.

From those? are you referring to me? @Joe Shearer you have quite a habit of claiming and assuming things regarding individuals you have no idea about. "Even after losing every war, how can you black, ugly Hindus think about ..."!!!!

For now, i will not go all out on you. Will give you benefit of doubt; please elaborate what you meant.

 

[Joe Shearer]

From those? are you referring to me? @Joe Shearer you have quite a habit of claiming and assuming things regarding individuals you have no idea about. "Even after losing every war, how can you black, ugly Hindus think about ..."!!!!

For now, i will not go all out on you. Will give you benefit of doubt; please elaborate what you meant.

I paid you a compliment and you take it as a veiled insult!

Please go through other threads; this is the kind of language that is used by green bhakts; the language used by orange bhakts is as ugly. What I complained about has nothing to do with you; on the contrary, I was happy and relieved that someone was making a positive, constructive contribution.

How on earth could you have thought that the reference was to you?

I am truly baffled.

 

[Ace of Spades]

I paid you a compliment and you take it as a veiled insult!

Please go through other threads; this is the kind of language that is used by green bhakts; the language used by orange bhakts is as ugly. What I complained about has nothing to do with you; on the contrary, I was happy and relieved that someone was making a positive, constructive contribution.

How on earth could you have thought that the reference was to you?

I am truly baffled.

So was i. Please check the bold part that i quoted, i comprehended that it was directed at me. Your structure of words and selection is confusing or may be my English is going bad, need a refresher course. My apologies.

I am aware of other members and their views, which indeed are not logic based but are sheer emotions. Anyhow, thanks for your complements.

 

[niaz]

Theoretically all you need is to station a few warships about 20 to 30 miles outside the enemy port and intercept any vessel that tries to enter or leave the port. However this really works when the enemy has naval & air superiority at the natural choke points such as Gibraltar, Strait of Hormuz or the Malacca Strait.

Pak submarines are now based at Ormara and Indian Navy would need to block Karachi, Ormara as well as Gwadar before the blockade really bites.

Having shore based cruise missiles, Sea Kings & Orions armed with Harpoons and Exocet equipped Mirages; complete blockage of Pakistani ports appears to be beyond the capability of the Indian Navy. However, should the hostilities continue for a long time, say more than 3 months and during that period IN manages to neutralize PN’s aviation as well as submarine assets, it may be possible.

 

[Mugwop]

Maybe but only for a limited time.

 

[IceCold]

It has been a pivotal American policy to respect "Freedom of Navigation". Any attempts to block this will draw the ire of the USN, which is the top dog. If IN engages and boards internationally flagged vessels in the open sea, PN would be within its rights to set mines on that path than.

Coming to the point of minig, i dont know where but somewhere i read that US actually patrols this area as to make sure that India or Pakistan does not mine the route.

 

[Vapnope]

How many chinese trucks enter pakistan from china.

Have you ever been to new silk road? of course not.
A couple of months ago i witnessed chinese trucks entering from Khunjerab border, in fact you will find Chines truck in Hunza.