The current deadly military clashes between the Indians and Chinese at Ladakh and other Indian occupied areas have surprised many of us. But, given the consistently aggressive, expansionist, and illegal actions by extremist Hindus-lead Modi government, these clashes are certainly not entirely unexpected. In fact, India has followed a well calibrated policy of gaining prolonged time under lame excuses and using that time to slowly but steadily taming down Kashmiri resistance and changing the status of Indian occupied sate of J&K. Indians slowly reduced the role of UN military observers deployed on their side of the LOC and then removed them (even though they are still deployed on Pakistani side) in an attempt to change the natures of the dispute from international to bilateral one and then finally to start calling it an internal Indian matter. By doing so, Indians were effectively renegading on all their promises made at the UN to the people of occupied J&K and the world community at large. In parallel, Indian government followed a well-planed strategy for removing the resentment in the people of occupied land by using strategies of stick and carrot, divide and conquer, and discrediting the freedom struggle by labeling it as terrorism. After Modi became the Indian prime minister, that well calibrated policy was replaced with a fascist approach to kill and crush the freedom struggle by using brutal force of more than 700,000 personnel. On 5 August 2019, Modi government also revoked the Indian constitution's article 370 that gave a special status to the state as a lollypop due to its disputed and sensitive nature. Modi took that action while completely failing in comprehending its far-reaching legal, political, and geostrategic consequences.
By unilaterally changing the status of a disputed territory, which is claimed by multiple parties, Modi government not only completely turned rogue on the UN resolutions but also, and more importantly so, effectively backed out of multiple bilateral agreements that India had signed with Pakistan and China in the past. In other words, Indians have effectively nullified the India-China agreement of 1993 that actually defined the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Similarly, by revoking the article 370, dividing the occupied state of J&K into multiple regions, and then making them a regular part of India, Modi has reneged on multiple agreements with Pakistan too, thus, rendering the LOC non-existent. The Modi gang probably planned for keeping the best of both sides (of bigotry and agreements) by expecting China and Pakistan to keep the 'sanctity' of LAC and LOC while India formally declares the disputed territory as its part. Only brainless idiots could think of that.
Emboldened by any effective opposition to unilateral Indian actions, Modi and his gang of fascist Hindu fanatics then embarked on a rather bigger misadventure of challenging the combined power of China and Pakistan by occupying Pakistan's northern areas of Gilgit-Baltistan and militarily disrupting CPEC route. Indians have been building the required military infrastructure over the past several years and now the final stage was fast approaching after formally annexing the occupied state of J&K. Their plan probably was to occupy the target areas before the harsh winter season sets in so that any counter attack by Pakistan and China would practically be impossible. Indians also had big plans to ignite and fuel an insurgency in certain Chinese provinces after getting hold of Gilgit-Baltistan area. Chinese have not only effectively pre-empted the Indian move but also turned the tables on Indians by roping in Nepal on their side too. On top of that scores of Indian soldiers are getting killed by Chinese. Modi is in desperate need of action to save his 56" chest image built painstakingly among Indian masses. Any action, however, will bring more humiliation to Indian military and Modi. Repeated Indian requests to Chinese for their withdrawal from the 'Indian areas' haven't paid off so far either. The extent of Modi's humiliation can be gauged by the fact that not even a single statement from any world power (or even a small country) in Modi's support has come out.
Regardless of what Indians claim, the disputed territory is still a disputed one. If anything, Modi's expansionist and illegal actions have rendered India’s bilateral agreements with Pakistan and China ineffective, thus, reverting the status of the disputed state back to pre-LAC and pre-LOC era. It is there a totally invalid claim by Indians that Chinese have occupied their land. It is not their land. It is a disputed land. There is no violation of the sanctity of LOC by Chinese because there is legally no LOC in existence anymore. Chinese are now justified to revert back to their pre-LAC claim as spelled out in a letter written by the then Chinese premier, Zhou Enlai, on 7 November 1959 to Jawaharlal Nehru who was then the Indian prime minister. If Indians think that things would go back to pre-revocation of article 370 stage, they will be making a grave miscalculation. Pakistan and China cannot trust Indians anymore. Indians have proved themselves as an untrustworthy rogue nation that can renegade on any bilateral or international agreement, treaty, or instrument without a shame. Indians have followed a heavy-handed approach against their smaller neighboring countries and grown bolder to challenge China too. Now the butcher of Gujrat, Modi, is facing the heat, getting thoroughly humiliated, and tasting an international isolation and disgrace. He is currently struggling on a slippery slope. Modi will certainly issue empty threats to China and Pakistan. But Modi will turn into a pussy cat against China in all likelihood. What is more probable from his stupidity, Modi will indulge in a misadventure against Pakistan. But we all hope that, unlike 27 Fab. 2019, this time there will be no restrain from Pakistani side.
The current fluid situation at the global stage generally and in South East Asia particularly is causing rapid changes in the geopolitical and geostrategic spheres. Of course, the events currently taking place in our region are interlinked with the global great game and it is quite possible that, due to the turns of events, we find ourselves in the eye of a bigger storm. That brings challenges and opportunities as well. To take a note, challenges are nothing new to us as a nation; we’ve been continuously dealing with one after the other over the last 73 years since the creation of our nation-state in 1947. By the grace of Allah Almighty (SwT), we have risen stronger after every challenge. Yet once more, we are at a crucial juncture that requires us to make visionary decisions and take bolder actions.
The current regional geopolitical environment, perturbed by expansionist and fascist policies of RRS-lead Indian government, is a direct and logical consequence of illegal Indian occupation of the state of J&K in clear violation of UN resolutions and against the wishes of the people of the occupied state. The failure of Indian government to fully suppress the voice of Kashmiri people and crush the freedom movement forced India to act desperately. Combined with perpetual Indian desire to dominate the regional countries and the rise of fascist Hindu party RSS in Indian politics only exacerbated the regional geopolitical landscape. As a reminder, it might be useful to note that Mahatma Gandhi was killed in cold blood by an activist of RSS and celebrated by the RSS cadre just because the Hindu fanatics abhorred Gandhi for having a soft corner for Indian minorities, especially the Muslims. The terrorist Hidu outfit, the RSS, follows the Hindutva ideology that asks for the establishment of a pure greater Hindu state by eliminating non-Hindus. The terrorists of RSS have committed numerous heinous crimes against Muslims since its emergence in the subcontinent more than a century ago. The effective use of Akhand Bharat slogan turned that group of RSS terrorists into a major political force in India. Its political front, the ruling BJP party, rose to the power for the first time in late 1970s. Since then, BJP has ruled India several times.
Under Modi, the Hindutva ideology started unfolding in the form of Indian state policies. Back in 1920s, Hindutva leaders were deeply impressed by contemporary ideology, Nazism, but Hindutva ideology is, in fact, more evil than Nazism in the sense that latter followed extreme racist and authoritarian views for Nazi supremacy over other races. Whereas Hindutva aims at eliminating non-Hindu population. The real ugly face of the largest democracy of world started exposing during the current Modi government. The expansionist and fascist Modi policies are now creating strategic ripples having far reaching effects much beyond our region. We need to use those ripples and counter ripples to our advantage.
As expected, soon after coming to power for the second term, Modi revoked the article 370 of Indian constitution on 5 August 2019 for unilaterally changing the status of Indian-occupied state and practically annexed the disputed state into India in clear violation of UN resolutions and multiple bilateral agreements Indians signed in past with Pakistan and China. Since then the occupied state is under a non-stop military lockdown causing the people face acute shortages of food, medicines, and other necessities. More than that, people are subject to a much more brutal and uglier oppression by the occupying Indian forces. Those forces are using pellet guns against children, encircling and isolating individual residential areas in the name of search operations on daily basis, picking up youths, brutalizing children, women, and elderly, and demolishing their homes. The kidnapped youths are later killed by Indian forces in fake encounters while labeling them as terrorists. There is no law and no justice for the victims of Indian state terrorism. The humanity is under a brutal and bloody siege in the Indian-occupied J&K particularly since August 5, 2019. All these actions of occupying Indian forces constitute what is known as grave war-crimes against humanity. The world at large has chosen to shamelessly close its eyes, stay quiet, and remain indifferent to the grave war-crimes being perpetuated by Indian forces even in the twenty-first century. It is a real shame. A shame for world bodies like UNO and world powers who falsely claim to care about human rights globally. Shame on all of them.
Pakistan cannot remain indifferent to these serious Indian war crimes against the oppressed people of Indian-occupied J&K. The people living that state are real blood relatives of people living in Azad Kashmir and in Pakistan especially Lahore, Sialkot, Rawalpindi, etc. How can we allow the continued Indian war-crimes against our own people? Pakistan must follow a pro-active policy.
First of all, Pakistan must be more active at the diplomatic front. It is said that diplomacy is the first line of defense and that the war is the last resort. That is not fully true in the context of the Kashmir dispute. In the face of illegal Indian occupation of J&K in a continued violation of UN resolutions for more than 70 years and the brutal oppression of the people of the occupied state, especially since 5 August 2019, the diplomacy has consistently disappointed the oppressed people of J&K. Sadly, the world conscience has been outweighed by commercial interests of world powers. That is a new low for humanity but that is the reality of current world of twenty-first century. In our case, given the world apathy towards the grave war-crimes being committed by Indian forces in occupied J&K, the military option appears to be the first resort for us. Our diplomatic effort needs to focus on solely guarding our narrative rather than focusing on a futile effort to mobilize the world powers for forcing India to resolve the dispute. No world power is able or willing to do that for us.
It is just a coincidence that Modi is fast running on self-destructive Hindutva policies while the world at large is embracing for a new world order with new global strategic alignments. Pakistan can create and utilize new opportunities to its advantage. Luckily Pakistan’s national interests are overwhelmingly overlapping with those of our great iron brother, Chine – a potential superpower of the future multipolar world. In the context of current China-India border clashes, this is the time for Pakistan to follow a more proactive strategy. We have great experience in Afghan guerilla wars and occupied J&K offers the most suitable terrain for launching such a war. With almost 100% population support in the Indian-occupied state, Pakistan must fight its own war. I am not a military expert, but I still need to understand why Pakistan has not yet crippled enemy movement in the Indian-occupied state. Why the freedom fighters are not targeting enemy convoys in and outside of that state? If a few young Kashmiri freedom fighters are embracing martyrdom while getting holed-up in a building and surrounded by a whole enemy battalion, why the same fighters don’t go and target the enemy convoys while getting martyred but sending scores of enemy soldiers to the hell at the same time? Our leadership needs to get some courage, have a solid trust in Allah (SwT), and provide effective support to our oppressed brothers, sisters, mothers, and elderly. The world is not going to support them in any form. It’s indeed solely our duty. And we need the diplomacy to fend off the hypocritic cries of those shameless world powers when the enemy starts feeling the heat under his butts.