This is Pakistan! Musharraf divides GHQ and Raiwind
Wajahat S. KhanTuesday, April 08, 2014
From Print Edition
154 11 59 1
For division, one always needs two. There are two cabinets: One wants Pervez Musharraf sent to Mommy Musharraf so that this government can move on to more pressing priorities. Practical as they are, these same guys would prefer to avoid an entanglement with the army under the ‘Back to Business’ banner.
The other cabinet wants our former dictator hung out to dry and thinks that justice is the foremost priority of this government. The first business of the state, our honourable cabinet members portend, is the state itself.
Mian Sahib enjoys this cabinet split. His is like Lincoln’s diametrically opposed war cabinet, but with a Raiwindian watermark: He feeds on it, devouring it for ideas and energy, and lets the rest of us have the crumbs — like the caustic harangues and tirades of the Khwaja Asif and Khwaja Saad Rafique — which keep us aptly confused about whether Musharraf’s is a legal trial that just went political or a political drama that is being played out legally.
Meanwhile, Nawaz’s soft-touch/hard-hit spokesperson, Pervez Rasheed, who’s got the silver-tongue of a battle-axe yielding used-car salesman, tells us earnestly that this trial wasn’t a priority for this government in the first place; that much like the pains of the energy crisis, circular debt, the war on terror, etc, the Shers got this trial as “inheritance” from the previous administrations, in fact, as an order from the Supreme Court of Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, and that they would rather do nothing but govern this ungoverned land than play politics.
Of course, the man whose initials spell “PR” makes complete sense, on paper. But then, the Khwajas of the world make sense, too. And thus, the diametrically opposed Lincoln-Sharif cabinet keeps us thinking: Law or expediency? We can’t tell, as bets are made over fancy brunches that the ECL shall be shafted and an exit strategy chiseled out, soon enough.
Then, there are the two Nawaz Sharifs: One focusing on how to make a legal liability look less political than it really is; how the law must stay above all else during this process despite pressures; how his legacy as a democrat and even a dynast will be tainted if he lets Musharraf slide; how weathering the storm today will spare his brother, his daughter, his son, his in-laws, his nephew and other heir apparent the taunts of scribes, anchors and opponents for years after this government is done. Thus, this is Nawaz’s Nuremburg: a test of his executive superpowers versus his legal ethics versus his political pragmatism.
But the other Nawaz is calculating how he will handle the media and opposition’s onslaught — and even some internally placed puritans/rebels — if this “Musharraf’s fate-is-in-Nawaz’s-hands” narrative is allowed to morph from a general impression to an actionable pardon. Thus, the back and forth for time: writing vague letters with typos to Musharraf and throwing the ball in the court of the courts.
Will Sharif dig in, or bail out? Will he look to the Saudis, who would rather have him let Musharraf go? Surely, he sees a monarchy there that can perhaps be emulated, but never replicated, because Pakistanis are no pushovers. The press will have him if the Zardaris and Imrans don’t. He would rather do what the Turks have done under his man-crush Erdogan: strip, strip and strip away at the army, one general after the other, via the system, the courts, the media, et al. Meanwhile, generate an efficiency buzz, bring in the big bucks via the IMF, royal friends, the Chinese or whoever, and neutralise the brass on the governance narrative by claiming that it was the Sher that forced an end to the drones, convinced the TTP to extend ceasefire after ceasefire, and strengthened the rupee, all in his first year. Brilliant.
This Nawaz is more hard-edged, and more or less like the Nawaz we know. He wants the law but he wants his way, too. Thus, the Khwajas have been allowed to unleash and do their thing: Storm troopers sniping away at the Musharraf no-accountability halo. This is understandable, as the historical angst of the PML-N must be channeled, and who better than Saad and Asif? — made-for-screen critics of the former dictator — to keep the TV tickers ticking.
Of course, the very fact that, technically, Defence Minister Khwaja Asif is the duly elected boss of General Raheel Sharif makes this high-wire act even more provocative. This is Nawaz, living dangerously. This is Nawaz imagining and maybe even getting a world where with judicial, parliamentary and media muscle — the perfect world, really — as well as some silent foreign friends, he could take on the brass.
But storm troopers are a different breed than quarter guards, and Raiwind’s masters at arms — the legal maestros, the spin doctors, the inner circle of relatives and the more pensive cabinet members — have forced Raiwind into a silent pause with their deliberations. So silent that last Friday, had the PM, the COAS, the DG-ISI and the interior minister not met, I would have been writing a very different story.
That story would cite senior GHQ sources as well as officers from the frontlines becoming frustrated with the House of Sharif. “Bashing by our own Defence Minister, of all the people?” would ask one source. “What happened to that ‘forward thrust’ we were going for? Why are we looking back?” would question another officer. “The Civ-Mil divide’s last gap is Musharraf. Why not fill it or cross it, why keep it there?” another general would inquire. “This is classic Nawaz: vindictive and selective,” would assess a mid-level commander.
That story was never written. There wasn’t much to add, except the predictable: the brass, with a new leader who isn’t firmly established yet, was getting restless, across the board: The “pressure from within on the new Chief, all the way up the ranks is severe” and would be testing for anyone, it was forewarned by a GHQ source.
But then, late Monday morning,
a young SSG officer in Tarbela put the man who some challenge for being the PM’s “handpicked army chief” in a spot: Why do they hate us, despite all our hard work, asked the Special Forces officer in a Q&A session. Obviously, the context was Musharraf inaction and the Khwajas’ diatribes. The COAS, according to the ISPR press release, responded with alarming vagueness: “‘Pakistan Army upholds the sanctity of all institutions and will resolutely preserve its own dignity and institutional pride’ the COAS said while responding to the concerns of soldiers on undue criticism of the institution in recent days.”
We don’t know whether the optics — the COAS visiting Musharraf’s old formation, the SSG, and particularly the Special Operations Task Force, a unit Musharraf deployed at will during his regime — were spun over the weekend by the chief’s secretariat and ISPR or were pre-planned. But we do know that this is the first time the COAS has spoken, post-indictment. Interestingly, General Raheel’s statement was abstract enough for the hawks to fly high with and the doves to land softly on.
And that brings us to the final two: The two armies.
As the Musharraf crisis unfolds, we have the choice of two armies. First, there is the old school, knee-jerk, conventional army. This army understands that even Hosni Mubarak can go to trial, then to jail, then the Muslim Brothers can get voted in, but then Sisi can always take over. This army is thick-skinned. This army wants this whole trial business to end, magically and immediately. Much like Musharraf, this army sees the trial as hypocritical. This army reasons that treason equals to spying for the Indians or selling secrets to the Americans, not abrogating the Constitution to ‘save the system’. Finally, this army thinks that democracy will best flourish on an inter-institutional ‘give and take’ and ‘consultation’.
Gave and took for the TTP talks, we did, claims this army. Gave and took for major foreign policy moves, like aligning with the GCC camp and ending drones which wouldn’t be possible without us, claims this army. So where’s the give and take, the consultative back and forth, for the Musharraf trial, they ask.
“Don’t cross the line, don’t ridicule the institution. Keep off the institution, and that especially goes for serving ministers,” said a senior GHQ source after the Tarbela/SSG warning on Monday, which was meant particularly for Raiwind to restrain the outspoken Khwajas.
“Since General Raheel has assumed office, he’s been sincere with this government. He’s worked hard for the big picture, and he hasn’t said a thing which is controversial,” said the general officer, flatly. “With so many critical issues on so many fronts, wouldn’t you want to move on from this front?”
A little late for itself, this army is beginning to realise where it slipped: Once upon a time, soon after Musharraf had left us for safer lands, there was a contrived yet modest ‘civilians in the lead’ narrative which Kayani established, that Zardari didn’t dare grapple with but that Nawaz took advantage of.
Raiwind took over slowly; first, by keeping all of us guessing about GHQ’s new boss till the last minute, last fall. Then, insisting on the talks with the Taliban at all costs, last winter. Then, hurtling us towards new foreign policy and economic fronts, this spring.
For their part, the army and Aabpara had long wanted some governance, and were beginning to see it in action. Thus, for governance purposes, the civilians-in-the-front approach was largely working for GHQ. And so, while Chaklala’s new boss settled in, Raiwind’s old hand led away, and by the book, too. Consultations were made on major moves where the army was a stakeholder; there were no complaints from GHQ, either. All was going according to plan.
And then, the problem morphed; Musharraf’s trial dates appeared, first on registrar’s calendars and then on news tickers. And thus came the new GHQ’s first political problem with the new government.
The ‘civvies in the front’ formula couldn’t be made applicable here, according to the transactional expectations of this army. The math was simple and reciprocal: Earlier allowances were made for Raiwind so that eventual allowances are made for Musharraf. Period.
But no such reciprocity from a democratically robust Raiwind came. No special allowances would be made. As the days of judgment came and went, with Musharraf unilaterally holed up in the AFIC and army doctors writing him note after note, the tensions began in earnest. The media clearly chose sides, and it wasn’t Musharraf’s corner they went to. Thus began the Musharraf emergency, many thanks to expectations of the old school, knee-jerk army, as well as a Raiwind arrogant enough to think that it could pummel through this, too.
Now, the indictment has happened. And the army is communicating directly through harshly worded press releases. But there is hope, yet.
That’s because there is a new school army out there. This army sees the light at the end of the long-term tunnel. This army is strategic enough to hush up the “we’re all very angry” narrative and let Raiwind make a move, instead. This army is preparing to tactically move away from the crime scene that is Musharraf. That’s because this army understands that democracy and justice at all costs, even at the expense of its own pride and glory — and a convicted, ‘treasonous’ former chief — will only help Pakistan, and even the army itself, too.
If Musharraf goes down, if Nawaz doesn’t blink, if the law prevails, if special conditions are not created, and if unusual circumstances are not used to grant Musharraf an exit, this army will move fast to include its former chief as yet another martyr on its list of thousands of shaheeds. A political Nishan-e-Haider, who took one for the team. This will be spun, and rightly so, as the army’s biggest sacrifice for democracy.
In the perfect world, Musharraf would get tried, and then either convicted or let off. Mian Sahib would let justice prevail, whatever the pains of the due process. And this second army would kick into gear, respecting any decision, saving the institution while sacrificing the man.
Except that this isn’t the perfect world. This is Pakistan. And there is a chance, a distinct and strong probability, that this second, more tolerant and broad-minded army will get beaten down by the first, more conventional and old-fashioned one, for there can only be one army. That’s when GHQ will move on from the press release. And that’s when bad things will happen to Pakistan’s polity.
This is Pakistan!Musharraf divides GHQ and Raiwind - thenews.com.pk