soundwave1987
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I always see TPP as both a challenge and an opportunity for China. Like I once said on this forum, TPP certainly poses negative impacts in short run, like low-end manufacturing flow out of China (which may jeopardise employment), lower market expectation (which may worse the international capital outflow), but in the long run it is definitely an opportunity we must seize: first, most economies in TPP except north american nations actually signed trade agreements with China( that's why ppl fear to lose US market but not others), so if pan-Pacific economy thrill because of TPP, China can enjoy better market opportunity, It's not like China will be isolated from all these economies by TPP treatments; second, China is facing severe market distortion and over capacity in infrastructual departments because of Keynes policy posed in global financial crisis and desperate to upgrade its industrial structure, yet TPP pushes the investment to flow into advanced manufacturing and finance services( fastest growing departments in current China) instead of low end manufacturing and infrastructure; third, China now is pushing hard to globalize RMB, TPP actually offers better opportunity for Chinese capital to invest overseas(especially low end manufacturing that may thrilling in SEAN). I once disgussed this topic with a Viet mumber named Nice Guy, With or without TPP, China must upgrade its economy as possible as we can, if we managed to reach our goals, then TPP poses no threat to our economy, but if we fail, there's no TPP or other agreements can help us, in this case, TPP is actually positive for China to upgrade a better economy(relys on consumption more, invests advancing manufacturing & services)in long run.
Ppl who worried too much about TPP actually still think that China relys on low cost labour force, but if they read the annual reports or academic papers they will see that our cheap labour force is dissipating for many years and what China's real advantages are.
I think China will remain be prudent about participating TPP for three reasons, first, US's agriculture industry is devastating to east asian househood agriculture under TPP rules; second, some TPP treatments may significantly increase the cost of developing countries to catch up technologically; third, developing economies may face the risk of being locked up at the lower end of international industrial chain.I think China's worrying is as much the same as Vietnam's, so I have told Nice Guy that Vietnam must beware of the stake ahead, do not step into the trap and get locked up, one day Vietnam will face the same need of upgrade too, and this is the bigger picture than the short term bankruptcy of househood agriculture.
Ppl who worried too much about TPP actually still think that China relys on low cost labour force, but if they read the annual reports or academic papers they will see that our cheap labour force is dissipating for many years and what China's real advantages are.
I think China will remain be prudent about participating TPP for three reasons, first, US's agriculture industry is devastating to east asian househood agriculture under TPP rules; second, some TPP treatments may significantly increase the cost of developing countries to catch up technologically; third, developing economies may face the risk of being locked up at the lower end of international industrial chain.I think China's worrying is as much the same as Vietnam's, so I have told Nice Guy that Vietnam must beware of the stake ahead, do not step into the trap and get locked up, one day Vietnam will face the same need of upgrade too, and this is the bigger picture than the short term bankruptcy of househood agriculture.
