Chinese Foreign Affairs News & Discussions

[gambit]

first of all i wanna say to everyone here,

china is not going to annex anything or anyone it does not claim(ie taiwan excluded), it will NOT be driving into Vietnam, or Mongolia. to suggest otherwise is just trolling.

Do not say that to everyone. Say it to Chinese members who encouraged it.

that said, if the NK suddenly find its self at war with the south and the North is seen as the aggressor, the PLA can still roll into the north claiming that its doing its part of the international security duty, it will be a rush to see who can occupy more territory in the north, the US or China, i doubt those two forces will be shooting at each other(though there could be incidents but it will probably be downplayed) for the precise reason mentioned here, risk or escalation to a conflict between US/China.

In this scenario, China have two very unpalatable choices:

- Virtually annex North Korea, something you said China should not do.

Under this guise of performing her responsibility as a regional power that China would step in and militarily discourage NKR from war, China would have no choice but to install a new government more amenable to Chinese wishes. China would have to economically support NKR to an even greater degree than today and that includes sending reformers to restructure the NKR-ean economic SYSTEM, not just merely relaxing/abandoning a few rules here and there. Even China would not know how long this support will be in spite of going thru the same travails herself.

- Let North Korea go.

The abandonment of NKR will morally force the SKR-eans to %100 shoulder the burden of saving Korea. Not just North or South, but of the entire country as how the world know Korea prior to partition. This would not mean an immediate placement of US military forces on the Korea-China border as some falsely impressed. Just like how China would not know how long it will take to economically salvage that half of Korea, neither would the SKR-ean government, which would now be the Korean government. So there is no reason for the US military to move into northern Korea. Probably not for another decade at the best case for US. Further...The (new) Korean government will not be so friendly to the idea of even partially supporting a US military garrison when so much will be needed to keep the entire Korean economic system from collapsing.

While this second option is still unpalatable to China because it would remove a buffer state between China and the US, the possibility of a less hostile relationship between China and the US over time as the Korean peninsula economically and politically recovers make this second option less unpalatable overall.

Bottom line...

Neither South Korea nor Japan is the 'puppet' state to the US as many would scurrilously like to believe and propagate. Oddly enough, both of these so called 'puppets' have major economic interests in mainland China, so why would they jeopardize these relationships to antagonize China by enhancing US military presence after the (hypothetical) abandonment of NKR by China? Is it possible that by letting NKR go, all three major Asian countries would have even stronger relationships, economically and politically, thereby gradually removing the US from the Pacific, at least militarily anyway?

North Korea have been a political and an economic millstone around China's neck and no matter what South Korea does or does not, NKR will continue to be such a millstone around China's neck. The same cannot be said for South Korea to the US. This is an unspoken embarrassment for China.

 

[applesauce]

Do not say that to everyone. Say it to Chinese members who encouraged it.

no, to everyone, including you, who responds to those bait posts

In this scenario, China have two very unpalatable choices:

- Virtually annex North Korea, something you said China should not do.

Under this guise of performing her responsibility as a regional power that China would step in and militarily discourage NKR from war, China would have no choice but to install a new government more amenable to Chinese wishes. China would have to economically support NKR to an even greater degree than today and that includes sending reformers to restructure the NKR-ean economic SYSTEM, not just merely relaxing/abandoning a few rules here and there. Even China would not know how long this support will be in spite of going thru the same travails herself.

- Let North Korea go.

The abandonment of NKR will morally force the SKR-eans to %100 shoulder the burden of saving Korea. Not just North or South, but of the entire country as how the world know Korea prior to partition. This would not mean an immediate placement of US military forces on the Korea-China border as some falsely impressed. Just like how China would not know how long it will take to economically salvage that half of Korea, neither would the SKR-ean government, which would now be the Korean government. So there is no reason for the US military to move into northern Korea. Probably not for another decade at the best case for US. Further...The (new) Korean government will not be so friendly to the idea of even partially supporting a US military garrison when so much will be needed to keep the entire Korean economic system from collapsing.

While this second option is still unpalatable to China because it would remove a buffer state between China and the US, the possibility of a less hostile relationship between China and the US over time as the Korean peninsula economically and politically recovers make this second option less unpalatable overall.

Bottom line...

Neither South Korea nor Japan is the 'puppet' state to the US as many would scurrilously like to believe and propagate. Oddly enough, both of these so called 'puppets' have major economic interests in mainland China, so why would they jeopardize these relationships to antagonize China by enhancing US military presence after the (hypothetical) abandonment of NKR by China? Is it possible that by letting NKR go, all three major Asian countries would have even stronger relationships, economically and politically, thereby gradually removing the US from the Pacific, at least militarily anyway?

North Korea have been a political and an economic millstone around China's neck and no matter what South Korea does or does not, NKR will continue to be such a millstone around China's neck. The same cannot be said for South Korea to the US. This is an unspoken embarrassment for China.

like you said, it does not have good choices IF the war break out, that why the chinese government doesnt want war, it wants status quo. but if its stuck between the bad choices it must choose the least bad one. between virtually annexing NK and simply letting korea go without demands(ie: potential us forces sitting at the border), it would rather prop up a new government in NK and spend the necessary funds rather than the alternative. that said, the ideal situation is to work out a quick deal with SK and the U.S after the war(which hopefully wont have too many casualties)

and the bottom line for such a deal is, a guaranteed removal of US forces from korea, its contribution to reconstruction is welcomed however. perhaps they can get a deal where both us and china will withdraw at the same time leaving SK in control.

now you might say the US would leave if nk problem is solved anyways. that however is not a guaranteed, leaving room for the US to change its mind at any time. a treaty or public promise is much more binding and believable.

 

[gambit]

no, to everyone, including you, who responds to those bait posts

The annexation sentiment is not 'bait'. It is heartfelt desire.

like you said, it does not have good choices IF the war break out, that why the chinese government doesnt want war, it wants status quo. but if its stuck between the bad choices it must choose the least bad one. between virtually annexing NK and simply letting korea go without demands(ie: potential us forces sitting at the border), it would rather prop up a new government in NK and spend the necessary funds rather than the alternative. that said, the ideal situation is to work out a quick deal with SK and the U.S after the war(which hopefully wont have too many casualties)

and the bottom line for such a deal is, a guaranteed removal of US forces from korea, its contribution to reconstruction is welcomed however. perhaps they can get a deal where both us and china will withdraw at the same time leaving SK in control.

If there is a second Korean War and partition remains, the US will not leave at the end of such war.

now you might say the US would leave if nk problem is solved anyways. that however is not a guaranteed, leaving room for the US to change its mind at any time. a treaty or public promise is much more binding and believable.

Nothing is guaranteed. But if Korea is whole again under Seoul's leadership, there would be no credible reasons for the US to remain.

 

[applesauce]

The annexation sentiment is not 'bait'. It is heartfelt desire.

still doesnt mean his sentiment is shared by any significant amount of ppl nor does it mean u must respond, itll only degrade the quality of threads

If there is a second Korean War and partition remains, the US will not leave at the end of such war.

then neither will china, simple as that. if the US wants the partition gone, then it must leave, i suppose we are at an impasse. and as u say if SK is not a puppet, this need not even directly involve the US, if the SK want half the country back and financial assistance in rebuilding, perhaps it can be persuaded to demand the US leave. if not well then like i said, a new regime is going to be installed in the north.

Nothing is guaranteed. But if Korea is whole again under Seoul's leadership, there would be no credible reasons for the US to remain.

and you would be right but again like i said, that's not a guaranteed thus not good enough to risk it. not to mention there are other examples in the world. Germany also faces direct threat yet the US run bases there, based on that example alone, "no credible reason" is not good enough

 

[gambit]

still doesnt mean his sentiment is shared by any significant amount of ppl nor does it mean u must respond, itll only degrade the quality of threads

In no way does that opinion degrades the quality of the discussion. It does not insult anyone. That sentiment simply is one option for China worthy of debate.

then neither will china, simple as that. if the US wants the partition gone, then it must leave, i suppose we are at an impasse. and as u say if SK is not a puppet, this need not even directly involve the US, if the SK want half the country back and financial assistance in rebuilding, perhaps it can be persuaded to demand the US leave. if not well then like i said, a new regime is going to be installed in the north.

Partition under North Korea? Not going to happen.

and you would be right but again like i said, that's not a guaranteed thus not good enough to risk it. not to mention there are other examples in the world. Germany also faces direct threat yet the US run bases there, based on that example alone, "no credible reason" is not good enough

No one is saying the withdrawal will occur immediately. Since the end of the Cold War, the US have been steadily withdrawing our military presence there.

 

[applesauce]

In no way does that opinion degrades the quality of the discussion. It does not insult anyone. That sentiment simply is one option for China worthy of debate.

if you cant see why you shouldnt respond to those kinds of posts, i have nothing more to say about it. we shall drops this here then.

Partition under North Korea? Not going to happen.

the south will still be the south, the north will get a new Chinese control regime, not a damn thing the US can do about it. that is if they don't agree to a simultaneous withdraw of forces leaving control of both koreas to SK

No one is saying the withdrawal will occur immediately. Since the end of the Cold War, the US have been steadily withdrawing our military presence there.

so what? the US is still there, and thats the whole point, they have NOT left.
if the US takes 30 years after the war to leave korea, then it will take 30 years for china to leave as well, simple as that.

 

[gambit]

the south will still be the south, the north will get a new Chinese control regime, not a damn thing the US can do about it. that is if they don't agree to a simultaneous withdraw of forces leaving control of both koreas to SK

Both the US and SKR are happy to have NKR continue to be the economic and political millstone around China's neck, if that is what you want for China. So in essence, the US does not have to do anything.

so what? the US is still there, and thats the whole point, they have NOT left.
if the US takes 30 years after the war to leave korea, then it will take 30 years for china to leave as well, simple as that.

Withdrawal is dependent upon perception of threat. The bottom line here is still economics. Russia is not supporting anyone while China continues to support NKR, a true 'failed state'. This is a 30 yr investment with no returns.

 

[shuttler]

French president starts China visit


English.news.cn | 2013-04-25 11:04:34 | Editor: Zhu Ningzhu

French President Francois Hollande (L) is greeted by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi upon his arrival in Beijing, capital of China, April 25, 2013, for a state visit to China. (Xinhua/Zhang Duo)

BEIJING, April 25 (Xinhua) -- French President Francois Hollande arrived in Beijing on Thursday, starting his state visit to China.

During his trip, President Xi Jinping will hold talks with Hollande. Premier Li Keqiang and Zhang Dejiang, chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, will also meet with him.

At Xi's invitation, Hollande will visit China from April 25 to 26.

 

[applesauce]

Both the US and SKR are happy to have NKR continue to be the economic and political millstone around China's neck, if that is what you want for China. So in essence, the US does not have to do anything.

what makes you think NK(new) will somehow be a economic millstone around china's neck? its perfectly acceptable for china to ship a few billion dollars to (new)nk and in return it gets a million man army as a buffer, thats down right cheap, heck it can even have nk undergo slow economic reforms. and a Nk under the indirect control of china is anything but a political dead weight, its very useful in fact(unlike currently were Nk doesn't listen to anyone). and you act like SK enjoys having a divided country, threatened with nuclear annihilation, being provoked all the time and having limited options to respond. like i said making the US leave can be done through SK, there is almost no down side to for SK to demand everyone leave korea.

Withdrawal is dependent upon perception of threat. The bottom line here is still economics. Russia is not supporting anyone while China continues to support NKR, a true 'failed state'. This is a 30 yr investment with no returns.

and whether that threat will remain is determined by whether or not the US withdraws, like i said we are at an impasse where you think the government wouldn't accept the very fair deal of simultaneous withdrawal, and again i say that US withdrawal does even have to involve direct negotiations with the US, Assuming SK isnt a puppet of course.

looking at this from a SK POV,
it can:

call for withdrawal of both powers
>>removes the only real threat to them(nk)
>>full independence (no foreign forces on their lands, no dependence on external power for basic national security)
>>finally uniting their country/peoples
>> possibly reconstruction fund from both powers

us refuses to leave, SK allows this
>>still a threatening regime to the north
>>continued dependence on external powers
>>country remains divided
>>country now devastated for next to no changes in situation

 

[xuxu1457]

China and Bangladesh peacekeepers hold joint exercises in Sudan

 

[Viet]

nice propaganda pictures. Can you also post how you try to intimidate other nations in SE Asia, such as right now the Philippines?

 

[Fsjal]

^show us your mighty army then^

 

[xuxu1457]

China-ASEAN exercises in Brunei， total 2000 troops

 

[xuxu1457]

????????????_????_???
920 type Ocean Medivac No.866 Peace Ark left Zhoushan port in 10th June, start "Harmony Mission -2013".
The mission, the hospital ship will visit Brunei and participate in the "10 +8" ASEAN humanitarian aid relief joint field exercises;
Go Gulf of Aden sea area to carry out medical itinerant services;
VisitBrunei, Maldives, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Indonesia, Cambodia, and provide the provision of medical services;
Go Indonesia to participate in multinational joint rounds and maritime parade.

"Peace Ark" hospital ship 866, enter service in 2008, 14300tons

 

[xuxu1457]

Ocean Medivac No.866 Peace Ark at Brunei, start "Harmony Mission -2013".
The mission, the hospital ship will participate in the "10 +8" ASEAN humanitarian aid relief joint field exercises
open to the public at Brunei 16th June