In recent weeks, Indian and Chinese officials have raised expectations of significant progress on the long-running boundary dispute ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s expected May visit to China.
But a Chinese strategic expert on Tuesday delivered a sharp reminder of the obstacles still looming before any progress on the issue, telling India that any “breakthrough” would be impossible without concessions on Arunachal Pradesh.
Responding to comments made by External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj to reporters during her February 1-2 visit to Beijing suggesting that Modi and President Xi Jinping, as two strong leaders, may enable an “out-of-the-box” approach to solving the border dispute, strategic affairs expert Lan Jianxue told the Communist Party-run Global Times newspaper: “If there is an ‘out-of-box solution,’ it is highly likely a breakthrough over the eastern part of the border, which contains the most controversial area between China and India”.
Lan, who earlier served in the Chinese Embassy in New Delhi and is an expert on India-China relations, said the “illegal McMahon Line… is at the heart of the boundary dispute”.
“This is a line that China has never accepted. If India won’t make concessions or adjustments over the line, there will be no suggestion that the two sides are any closer to agreeing.”
Adjustments
His comments reiterate the Chinese view that a boundary settlement will require adjustments in all the sectors - western, middle and eastern. India sees China as occupying at least 38,000 sq-km in the western sector in the Aksai Chin region, and will demand settlement on that front.
China has, since the late 1980s, voiced claims to 90,000 sq-km in the eastern sector in Arunachal Pradesh. Lan cautioned that “it might be too soon to anticipate that this solution will be reached in May during Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s first visit to China since assuming office”.
He said the Modi government had shown “a tougher attitude” by beefing up border patrols and pushing long overdue moves to improve infrastructure.
While he expressed optimism that Swaraj’s comments showed that India was “making efforts in showing flexibility and creating a favourable atmosphere on resolving the issue”, he added: “However, to this day, the Indian government has not given us a reply or any signal of goodwill for adjustment over this issue. In the light of this, the ball is in India’s court to adopt a more proactive approach,” suggesting that an adjustment in the eastern sector was China’s starting demand.
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