We're looking forward for that moment...how many your warships we have sunk "provocatibly"?[/QUOTE
Thi Lang to be sunk first.
News page Hong Kong's Asia Times Online on 17 / 8 deducted the article of naval strategist of Australia, Mr. Phil Radford. He said that the carrier owns no help China maintain the advantage in the dispute over the South China Sea. Here are the main contents of analysis of Phil Radford:
This carrier is not a tool to resolve the current dispute, the issue of East Sea of Vietnam is the most headache problem for China. Carrier itself is diplomatic tool rather than a military machine.
China has conducted the first test for carriers Thi Lang after a long renovation. Once the aircraft is completed, it will be able to carry 40 fighter J-15 on the ship, about 20 helicopters, including anti-submarine helicopter of the Russian Ka-28 helicopter or a Chinese domestic producers.
The carrier owns and form groups of combat aircraft can strongly alter the balance of power on the East Coast. Thi Lang carrier will address the specific strategic issues, enabling China beyond the strategic direction of the sea, to protect "core interests" in the South China Sea. However, this advantage is not clear with the challenges that carriers may face with.
The presence of the carrier Thi Lang led to the emergence of mass anti-ship missiles in Southeast Asian region, there is antiship missile system K-300P ultrasonic Bastion.
According to Phil Radford, the Chinese owned carrier has accidentally created a silent concurrence to purchasing of all arms in the ASEAN region. Since China carried out reform carrier Varyag, countries in the region is beginning to move ahead to prepare countermeasures.
In addition to the fleet of six submarines of Vietnam, Thi Lang carriers will have to deal with the submarine fleet by no less complicated. Thi Lang carriers will have to confront with the Scorpene class submarines of the Royal Malaysia Navy, submarines of the Navy Singapone Archer, possibly a submarine is on the payroll of the Indonesian Navy.
But more dangerous for carriers Thi Lang from the system advanced anti-ship missiles and will use in Southeast Asia in the near future. Vietnam along with Indonesia are the two first countries outside Russia owned anti-ship missile systems, P-800 supersonic Yakhont. Supersonic anti-ship missile BrahMos is a threat too large for carriers Thi Lang.
News page in Dutch: De Volkskrant said, Vietnam is very close to owning missile BrahMos supersonic anti-ship. The purchase of anti-ship missiles which require the consent of both Russia and India. But this is not so big problem, the present relations between Vietnam and India and Russia are strategic partners in range. India has shown efforts to relieve east China's pressure in the Indian Ocean.
The sale of anti-ship missile systems, advanced to Vietnam is quite likely to happen. India has also committed to helping Vietnam to modernize the navy, to share experience to build and operate the submarine fleet. BrahMos anti-ship missile is the fastest in the world today, with the Mach-3 and a range of 300km, BrahMos is actually a deadly threat to any warship does.
Mr. Phil Radford identified even when fully formed carrier combat groups, the force is too thin to create a great advantage if a conflict occurs. Thi Lang carriers unable to operate aircraft deployed commanders and airborne early warning. This means that the aircraft carrier combat groups with limited experience in detecting threats from the skyline. It will be a big challenge for Chinese radar system to guide the production of rocket ships for HHQ-9 not intercept supersonic anti-ship missiles. This is a difficult problem for the system to intercept U.S. Aegis superior. Underwater protection systems for aircraft carriers is also not really safe, anti-submarine warfare capability of China is very limited. Communications system to coordinate between the submarine warfare and surface ships are not really good.
Even if this capacity is improved, still can not guarantee the safety of aircraft operating Thi Lang on the East Coast. A raid by missiles from the air would be a disaster for the carrier Thi Lang.
China's hard to use carrier Thi Lang on the East Coast as a tool to put pressure on the dispute on the East Coast. End of the article Phil Radford concludes "East Sea will be the most dangerous for the carriers Thi Lang."