TAIWAN STRAIT NEAR-WAR CRISIS IN JANUARY 2021
More information is coming out from Taiwan itself regarding the United States UN Ambassador Kelly Craft's aborted trip to Taiwan in the last days of the Trump administration.
近日我方軍情及兩岸外交人士，也從多方管道得知不少片段訊息，經拼湊後大致的情況應該是，從1月7日到10日，中國透過外交管道向美方強烈抗議不得要領後，北京高層幾經考慮，決以軍事行動強力回應。11日解放軍透過中美2軍聯繫機制告知美國國防部，無法容忍克拉夫特訪台損及中國主權利益，當美國專機抵近台灣時，解放軍戰機也將會跟隨進入台灣領空，宣示台灣主權屬於中國的立場，若過程中遭遇台灣軍機阻擋，將不排除發生逕行開火等後果。
In recent days our military intelligence and Cross-Strait diplomatic corps have acquired many pieces of information regarding this. After analysis the situation overall went like this: from 7-10 January 2021 China strongly protested via diplomatic channels (regarding the US' UN Ambassador Kelly Craft's planned trip to Taiwan) to no avail.
After deliberation Beijing decided to respond with military force. On 11 January PLA notified Pentagon via military channels that China cannot tolerate Kelly Craft's action as they will damage the sovereignty of China. Once her plane nears Taiwan PLA aircraft will enter Taiwan airspace and declare sovereignty. If Taiwan aircraft were to interfere with this then they may be fired upon.
消息人士透露，當時五角大廈正忙著業務交接，根本沒料到中國軍方反應竟如此激烈，相關官員試圖與解放軍高層溝通但被拒絕。經緊急通知美軍印太司令部評估發現，若要保證克拉夫特專機安全降落台北，只有動用日本沖繩嘉手納基地的空軍第18聯隊F15C戰機護航一途，但美、中2國空軍將有發生軍事對峙的風險。
At the time The Pentagon was busy with the handover and did not expect such a strong response from the PLA. They attempted to contact PLA high command but was refused. Pentagon contacted United States Indo-Pacific Command and was told that the only way to ensure safety of Kelly Craft's plane was to mobilize F-15C from 18th Wing from Kadena Air Base, Okinawa for escort. But such as action risk military confrontation between China and US.
只不過若為避免美中直接衝突，改由台灣戰機全程護航情況可能更加棘手，一旦從共軍戰機大舉跨越中線進逼，恐會與台灣戰機在北台灣空域引爆戰火，屆時美國專機也怕會有安全顧慮，必須被迫轉降駐日美軍基地，這樣一來美軍即使能置身事外，但放任兩岸引燃戰火對美國來說也會是一場政治大災難。
Alternatively to avoid direct military confrontation between US and China, the ROCAF (Republic of China alias Taiwan Air Force) aircraft might be used instead for escort, but such a plan could also be very troublesome as once large number of PLAAF aircraft crosses the midline, there is risk of aerial combat with ROCAF aircraft over northern Taiwan.
Should that happen Kelly Craft's aircraft would be in danger and will be forced to turn and land in US air force base in Japan. Although this means US forces will not be involved in any fighting it will still trigger war between Taiwan and China, and thus cause a political disaster for the US.
美國國防部只好將共軍警告，及美軍相關評估結果告知國務院，並強烈建議克拉夫特應取消訪台，龐畢歐雖大感不滿，但審慎考量後果也同意踩下煞車。為避免外界聯想克拉夫特去不成台灣是因為中國施壓奏效，才以政權交接順利為由，一併取消國務院官員，包括龐畢歐自己的出訪計畫。由於最後克拉夫特沒出發，解放軍也未有挑釁行動，因而台灣朝野對這場北京及華盛頓間的大國角力渾然未覺，更不知已與台海戰火擦身而過。
Thus Pentagon was forced to send both the PLA warning as well as their estimate regarding US forces to the US State Department and recommend Kelly Craft's trip to Taiwan be cancelled. Mike Pompeo was very upset but after considering the consequences that ex-CIA director was forced to hit the brakes.
To avoid giving the impression that the cancellation of the trip was due to pressure from China, he instead used the handover as excuse and to give the better disguise cover not only cancelled the US' UN Ambassador Kelly Craft's scheduled trip to Taiwan, but also his own trip to Europe as well as all other trips by State Department staff.
Thus in the end Kelly Craft did not go to Taiwan and PLA did not implement the threat. Because of this Taiwan's political establishment never realised they were part of this political show of force between Beijing and Washington and how close war brushed by them.
More at this link:
幕後》台海最接近戰爭的1次！美駐聯大使訪台踩紅線，解放軍放話將隨同進入台灣領空
美國拜登政府上台後，在經貿、科技及香港、新疆民主人權議題上，對中國仍持強硬立場，但在敏感的美中台關係上卻相對緩和，既未如川普政府時熱衷打台灣牌刺激中國，反而還重申美國一中政策不變，更多次敦促兩岸重啟對話。
據了解，拜登政府對兩岸爭端力持審慎，似與今年1月間美國政權交接前夕，美國前駐聯合國大使克拉夫特（Kelly Craft）有意訪問台灣，幾乎引爆台海自1967年金門「113空戰」以來最接近開戰的危機有關，即使可能的台海戰火最後因克拉夫特未能成行，終而驚險消弭於無形，但後續效應至今仍在檯面下持續發酵。
美國拜登政府上台後，在經貿、科技及香港、新疆民主人權議題上，對中國仍持強硬立場，但在敏感的美中台關係上卻相對緩和，既未如川普政府時熱衷打台灣牌刺激中國，反而還重申美國一中政策不變，更多次敦促兩岸重啟對話。據了解，拜登政府對兩岸爭端力持審慎，似與今年1月間美國政權交接前夕，美國前駐
www.storm.mg
2021-03-10
Behind the scenes: Taiwan Strait is closest to war! The US ambassador to the United Nations stepped on the red line during her scheduled visit to Taiwan, and the PLA said that they would enter Taiwan's airspace along with her plane
After the Biden administration took office, the United States has maintained a hard line against China on issues of economic and trade, science and technology and democracy & human rights in Hong Kong and Xinjiang. But it has been relatively moderate in the sensitive relationship between China and the US. The new administration does not follow the Trump government's inclination to play out the Taiwan's cards to stimulate China. Instead, it reiterated the US "One-China Policy" remains unchanged and urged the two sides to restart the Cross-Strait dialogue.
It is understood that the Biden administration is very cautious about cross-strait disputes, which appear to be related to the intention of Kelly Craft, a former US ambassador to the United Nations, to visit Taiwan on the eve of the US power handover in January 2021, almost triggered a crisis that is closest to the start of war in the Taiwan Strait since the "113 Air War" in Kinmen Islands (aka. Quemoy) in 1967. Even though the possible war in the Taiwan Strait ultimately disappeared due to Kelly Craft's failure to make the trip, but the follow-up effect still continues to ferment.
