Russia and Iran may try to block efforts across the Caspian, which is why the Uzbeks are leading the effort for the Trans-Afghan Railway. Russia and Iran are both being confronted by the west more vociferously these days, so their acquiescence to western transit over the Caspian will be limited to the bare minimum.
Pakistan being at the end of the route and in dire economic straits may be compelled to go along with any initiatives that build it back up to the west’s only reliable access to Central Asia. The Afghans, seeking international and especially western recognition, will also need to go along with access.
If China doesn’t compete for projects along this corridor, it will go to western companies, at the expense of Chinese efforts and decades of investment. The success of BRI depends on Central Asia. Russia is also having trouble giving Central Asians jobs. If China can Integrate the Central Asian (total population only 80 million), Afghan, and a sizable portion of the Pakistani workforce into Chinese industrial enterprises along the route, it could significantly push back on any other powers influence in the region, and create the profits to be exported via Gwadar or over land to Chinese ports on the Chinese coast. If China helps Central Asian efforts to rebuild the Aral Sea, it could also go a long way in winning soft power with them.
Millions of immigrants fill key sectors in Russia’s economy, help offset its demographic challenges, and support origin communities, particularly in Central Asia. Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, many have also been pressured into joining the military, and meanwhile face continued...
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