China's workforce falls for the first time in decade

[Holmes]

Due to an ageing population and a decline in the fertility rate, China's labor force in 2011 registered the first decline in its numbers in 10 years, with its population aged between 15 and 64 accounting for 74.4% of the total, a slight drop of 0.1 percentage point, according to data released by the country's National Bureau of Statistics.

The figures send out a warning signal since the supply of labor in China can impact economic growth momentum, the Shanghai-based Oriental Morning Post reports.

According to the data released on the bureau's website, China's labor population experienced its first fall since 2002, while the proportion of urban population surpassed 50% for the first time last year, following rapid urbanization caused by a rise in living standards and the launch of a large number of public construction projects.

The data showed that urban population had reached 51.27% of the total in 2011, up 1.32 percentage points from the previous year. Urban population increased 21 million to 609.08 million, while the rural population was reduced by 14.56 million to 656.56 million.

Li Shi, a professor at Beijing Normal University, said many are concerned that China will lose its "demographic dividend" in the labor force, though it is uncertain how many years it may take for such a complete loss of advantage to occur.

The key for China to maintain its labor force advantage hinges on changes within its existing systems, such as retirement age, Li said. He added that if the country's retirement age could be extended, China could hold its labor force advantage for a longer time.

Li further said that many statistics do not accurately reflect the country's real situation. For instance, the number of migrant workers who registered their households in rural areas was not available.

Echoing Li's view, Ren Yuan, a professor at Fudan University's School of Social Development and Public Policy in Shanghai, also said the level of urbanization was overestimated because a large number of migrant workers in cities were included in the statistics of urban residents. He described the situation as being not fully urbanized.

Since urbanization was a necessary consequence of economic development, the biggest concern is whether the supply of labor can meet the needs of economic development.

China's workforce falls for the first time in decade

 

[wisy]

china is in a big problem
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Chinapop.svg
they got too much old peaple relaing on too little young peaple.

 

[xizhimen]

many developed countries are aging societies,it is not a problem,they just take advantage of low income country labors and use them to work and dont even have to pay for their pensions and medicare,China has so many low income neighbors who have way more extra larbor force they can digest,and their population are very young,those countries may face serious unemployment problems in the future,and China can take a big advantage of that.

 

[xataxsata]

By 2015 it will become a very big difference and at the same time India's demographic will at its peak.

And that phase of India will last till 2035

More people to work less non working people to feed.

 

[xizhimen]

By 2015 it will become a very big difference and at the same time India's demographic will at its peak.

And that phase of India will last till 2035

More people to work less non working people to feed.

i dont know,you better wait and see,and i never mean China will import Indian laborers,they are so different from us and dont mix well with our local Chinese,in the future foreign workforce coming to China for job may most likely come from South Eastern Asian countries.

 

[xataxsata]

many developed countries are aging societies,it is not a problem,they just take advantage of low income country labors and use them to work and dont even have to pay for their pensions and medicare,China has so many low income neighbors who have way more extra larbor force they can digest,and their population are very young,those countries may face serious unemployment problems in the future,and China can take a big advantage of that.

The developed countries have many advantages that china as a developing country don't have:

- As china is still a developing country, china have to invest for at least 2 decades to become a low-middle group developed country

- china don't have technological advantages like developed countries

- china have veru huge population apart from USA most of the developed countries have very small population even USA have 4 times less population then china

- More people more mouths to be feed where is the money honey??

- Developed countries have very good life style, democracy, free society that attracts the cream of the world to them but china is not like that.

- china is depend on cheap labor job but if you import labor that will be doom for economy and local people will be at the receiving end.

The list is very long.

The gist is that the time for china is up and the way downward will start by 2015 at very high speed

 

[xataxsata]

i dont know,you better wait and see,and i never mean China will import Indian laborers,they are so different from us and dont mix well with our local Chinese,in the future foreign workforce coming to China for job may most likely come from South Eastern Asian countries.

No need to worry about India we will be a manufacturing hub and replace china.

India will benefit from the china's doom as your people will grow old and we have young people.

For next 20 years from 2015 India will grow at a very tremendous pace highest in the world and will surpass china.

 

[xizhimen]

I dont know about that 2 decades theory,haha,in one decade China will be the world top economy and China's science and technology just develops as fast if not faster,China last year already hit 5000$ per capita middle upper country level.and China still has a huge population can sustain stable workforce for at least 2 decades.

 

[SinoChallenger]

No need to worry about India we will be a manufacturing hub and replace china.

India will benefit from the china's doom as your people will grow old and we have young people.

For next 20 years from 2015 India will grow at a very tremendous pace highest in the world and will surpass china.

Keep deluding yourself about 20 years from now! You india are so poor all you have are self-delusions.

China's GDP / capita is already 6x that of india! China is passing Latin America and Eastern Europe. While india is still a third world hole with communal violence, high caste corruption, insurgencies and 10% inflation. Get used to the hindu rate of growth.

China is already on par with the developed countries in things like space, information technology, supercomputers, ship building, high speed trains, trucks, genetic biosciences, nuclear technology.... while india doesn't even have indoor plumbing.

Chinese brands like Huawei, ZTE, Lenovo, Haier, Great Wall Motors, etc. are recognized around the world. The only thing people around the world know about india is there's more poverty there than Sub-Saharan Africa.

Get used to the bottom india. You'll not going anywhere soon.

 

[Nakki Nair]

Keep deluding yourself about 20 years from now! You india are so poor all you have are self-delusions.

China's GDP / capita is already 6x that of india! China is passing Latin America and Eastern Europe. While india is still a third world hole with communal violence, high caste corruption, insurgencies and 10% inflation. Get used to the hindu rate of growth.

China is already on par with the developed countries in things like space, information technology, supercomputers, ship building, high speed trains, trucks, genetic biosciences, nuclear technology.... while india doesn't even have indoor plumbing.

Chinese brands like Huawei, ZTE, Lenovo, Haier, Great Wall Motors, etc. are recognized around the world. The only thing people around the world know about india is there's more poverty there than Sub-Saharan Africa.

Get used to the bottom india. You'll not going anywhere soon.

China is on par with developed countries in space infotech etc?

Huawei, ZTE and GREAT WALL MOTORS, world renowed brands?

You cant even compare these brands with Tata, Mahindra, Reliance, Airtel and such.

 

[sweetgrape]

The developed countries have many advantages that china as a developing country don't have:

- As china is still a developing country, china have to invest for at least 2 decades to become a low-middle group developed country

- china don't have technological advantages like developed countries

- china have veru huge population apart from USA most of the developed countries have very small population even USA have 4 times less population then china

- More people more mouths to be feed where is the money honey??

- Developed countries have very good life style, democracy, free society that attracts the cream of the world to them but china is not like that.

- china is depend on cheap labor job but if you import labor that will be doom for economy and local people will be at the receiving end.

The list is very long.

The gist is that the time for china is up and the way downward will start by 2015 at very high speed

I am glad that your indian mind still not change.
Yes, china will step to aging society. In your comment, you dodge somthing, but just your so called advantages, democracy, freedom. China don't have the technology, isn't free, strict censorship? Etc.
But could you tell me how to beat china, how to take the advantage of your young population?
China will develop last more than ten years with current advantage, in that time chinese gdp per captial will cross the developed country line. And will still develop than other developed country although slower. And you said we don't have the technology, yes, now compare with USA, Jap and other important developed country, we lack the key technology, but compare with most of developing country, we are more advanced than them, even now indian can't compare woth the 90s china in my opinion, chinese basic industry is much stronger than indian, I know you don't accept it, you can understand the inpoortance of these.
You patient are always there, you are always the second hugest population, why you don't use it before? And your population can't increase unlimitly, you will enter into the aging society, how do you handle these? Think it use your brain, not ***.

 

[N3oN]

We Indians dont have have any problem with u r economy u r gains and losses...
We are best and happy as we are... but most of the world is concerned about us...
we survived succesfully for the past 50 yrs...
devoloped technologies and employment despite of bans...
we dont need any onesconcerns about our economy and norms...
now its our turn to play our cards in coming decade...we are sure that we will be on top of the world,
do what can u do in coming decade...
thats all u have got..

 

[EAsian]

i dont know,you better wait and see,and i never mean China will import Indian laborers,they are so different from us and dont mix well with our local Chinese,in the future foreign workforce coming to China for job may most likely come from South Eastern Asian countries.

We don't need southeast asian labor ，they are too dumb.
their low iq will drag our gdp per capita down like what happened in malaysia.

 

[Holmes]

Pss: China can fill their Ageing population with their Pak fans

 

[lcloo]

I don't know why people think a huge working population is good. No doubt the Chinese population is aging. But what the heck, currently most middle age Chinese have to retired early to to make way for millions of high school and college graduate every year. China can not keep on creating millions of new job year after year.

This is actually good for China, firstly people can continue to work after age 55, even up to age 65 instead of retire early at age 45 or 50. Secondly, Chinese industries will have to move up-stream with more efficient production methods, including semi-auto/full auto manufacturing methods, including development of industrial robots. Thirdly, it is time to eliminate human intensive, low profit margin, low price goods productions which need large number of workers yet with low yeild return. Fourthly, the pressure on the government to keep on creating millions of new job every year.

As for the human intensive industries moving away from China, it has already began many years ago, when foreign factories began to move away from Southern China, to Vietnam, India and other countries offerirng cheap labor. Local Chinese provincial government seem to encourage this trend with increase in minimum wages every few years, Chinese workers now have take-home pay higher than many South East Asian countries.

China does not benefit much in term of taxation from foreigner owned factories becase they tend to make creative accounting to produce net profit margin of 5% to 10%, the foreign holding companies back in their own countries like USA, Japan etc take the major share of profit which in my ex-companies (one was based in New Jersey, another is based in Montreal), their reported published accounts showed 40% to 55% gross profits, many on goods bought from their subsidiary owned factories in China.