China's work force is set to decline 30% by 2050

[CHN Bamboo]

It's okay if the population fall to Eight hundred million

 

[Jlaw]

It's okay if the population fall to Eight hundred million

Young people are just too selfish these days.

 

[Sasquatch]

Raise the retirement age for men and women to 65, one child policy is being fully altered to a two child policy, in my opinion scrap it fully in the next 5 years. Encourage couples to have up to 2-3 children provide cash and other incentives as Russia has done to achieve it's recent population boom. CPC can force people to have more kids it will be difficult but it can be achieved. Robots will replace most lower factory jobs.

I'm in favor of having a population boom just enough to replace the older population.

Curious on whats the opinion of allowing immigration only from East Asian developed countries like South Korea, Japan, Singapore and possibly other developed countries. I know immigration is unpopular.

@Jlaw @AndrewJin @rcrmj @TheTruth @TaiShang @cirr @Sommer @Fattyacids @rott ? Thoughts.

 

[Dungeness]

Raise the retirement age for men and women to 65, one child policy is being fully altered to a two child policy, in my opinion scrap it fully in the next 5 years. Encourage couples to have up to 2-3 children provide cash and other incentives as Russia has done to achieve it's recent population boom. CPC can force people to have more kids it will be difficult but it can be achieved. Robots will replace most lower factory jobs.

I'm in favor of having a population boom just enough to replace the older population.

Curious on whats the opinion of allowing immigration only from East Asian developed countries like South Korea, Japan, Singapore and possibly other developed countries. I know immigration is unpopular.

@Jlaw @AndrewJin @rcrmj @TheTruth @TaiShang @cirr @Sommer @Fattyacids @rott ? Thoughts.

You can't implement a discriminatory Immigration policy without causing international uproar, and you open a new can of worms. Incrementally raising the retirement age is the most feasible way to solve the potential labor shortage.

 

[TheTruth]

Raise the retirement age for men and women to 65, one child policy is being fully altered to a two child policy, in my opinion scrap it fully in the next 5 years. Encourage couples to have up to 2-3 children provide cash and other incentives as Russia has done to achieve it's recent population boom. CPC can force people to have more kids it will be difficult but it can be achieved. Robots will replace most lower factory jobs.

I'm in favor of having a population boom just enough to replace the older population.

Curious on whats the opinion of allowing immigration only from East Asian developed countries like South Korea, Japan, Singapore and possibly other developed countries. I know immigration is unpopular.

@Jlaw @AndrewJin @rcrmj @TheTruth @TaiShang @cirr @Sommer @Fattyacids @rott ? Thoughts.

Other East Asian countries - Mongolia, Indian occupied Tibet, Koreas, Japan etc.

Other Chinese would be fine as well.

A few elite migrants if they truly love China from others.

 

[Jlaw]

Raise the retirement age for men and women to 65, one child policy is being fully altered to a two child policy, in my opinion scrap it fully in the next 5 years. Encourage couples to have up to 2-3 children provide cash and other incentives as Russia has done to achieve it's recent population boom. CPC can force people to have more kids it will be difficult but it can be achieved. Robots will replace most lower factory jobs.

I'm in favor of having a population boom just enough to replace the older population.

Curious on whats the opinion of allowing immigration only from East Asian developed countries like South Korea, Japan, Singapore and possibly other developed countries. I know immigration is unpopular.

@Jlaw @AndrewJin @rcrmj @TheTruth @TaiShang @cirr @Sommer @Fattyacids @rott ? Thoughts.

i don't think that is an issue to implement such policies. If one child can be implemented, a multiple children policy can be enacted. Like you mentioned, monetary incentives can be given to people who have more than one children. In one of the provinces in Canada, there are a lot of child benefits for people with multiple children.

Raising retirement age is not a good solution. Raising this will mean higher youth unemployment.

China when the time is right, can implement such policies. I'm against immigration as that will change the demographics of China and its rich culture.

You can't implement a discriminatory Immigration policy without causing international uproar, and you open a new can of worms. Incrementally raising the retirement age is the most feasible way to solve the potential labor shortage.

That is BS. There will be international uproar regardless what China does. Were you around when one child policy was implemented? The western media constantly demonized China for that.

 

[Dungeness]

i don't think that is an issue to implement such policies. If one child can be implemented, a multiple children policy can be enacted. Like you mentioned, monetary incentives can be given to people who have more than one children. In one of the provinces in Canada, there are a lot of child benefits for people with multiple children.

Raising retirement age is not a good solution. Raising this will mean higher youth unemployment.

China when the time is right, can implement such policies. I'm against immigration as that will change the demographics of China and its rich culture.



That is BS. There will be international uproar regardless what China does. Were you around when one child policy was implemented? The western media constantly demonized China for that.

We are talking about the labor shortage here, so youth unemployment is not even an issue here. All major economies in the world have much higher retirement age, what makes China so special that they have to have much longer retirement life than anyone else? I'm against immigration too, especially discriminatory immigration.

We are talking about the labor shortage here, so youth unemployment is not even an issue here. All major economies in the world have much higher retirement age, what makes China so special that they have to have much longer retirement life than anyone else? I'm against immigration too, especially discriminatory immigration.

Allow overseas China, especially 2nd or 3rd generation, to have dual citizenship will help too.

 

[Sommer]

Mark and answer tomorrow.

 

[Lure]

These are mathematical predictions, not probabilistic, but definite.

These have very few variables. The only things that you need are TFR, Infant mortality rates, and death rates. These are all publicly available, and don't have much variance in their reporting.

This prediction is very different from the economic kind of predictions that are usually way off.

Have you ever created any mathematical model in your life? No, I'm gonna change the question. Have you ever seen any mathematical model in your life?

Every mathematical model, every single one, that predicts the future is probablistic unless it's a law of nature. Quantum mechanics showed us that, even mathematical models regarding laws of nature are probablistic. And let me give you a hint, population models are hardly laws of nature, and they are proven to be extremely divergent from actual values many times in the past.

And this one clearly, one of the worse employment models I have ever seen. I might think that, a very ignorant person has prepared this, if this is not a propaganda work.

Let's look at the birth rate graphs. I will use South Korea, Japan and Germany as benchmarks since these countries are among the lowest birth rate countries.

As it's clearly seen China persistantly had a higher birth rates from the benchmark countries since 1982.

Now let's have a look at the labor force graphic of the benchmark countries.

Oh my God!? A straight line!? There is no bell shaped curve that indicates a demographic nighmare and an economic apocalypse.

And let's make it a little bit more complicated. Let's have a look at Russian Birth Rates, and compare with benchmark countries.

But how can this be? What kind of sorcery is this? Russia had lowest birth rate in 1999, but in 2013 it's way higher.

Bottom line is, population dynamics can be changed pretty quick. And in none of the countries of againg population there is a bell shaped curve like this in the labor force graphic. What you've posted is pure nonsense.

 

[Obambam]

We don't even know for sure what tomorrow brings let alone in 35 years time.

Frankly speaking, we won't lose appetite over some silly line graphs or bar charts. Our level of determination, will power and persistence are what got us here today on the world stage. The world has witnessed our success over and over, and they will witness it some more.

India on the other hand, has an economy that is at least 5 times dearer, and a population already similar to ours, I'd hate to be in their shoes in 35 years time though.

I will say this just to entertain the Indian. Yes China will collapse....








only if we all sat down doing nothing but to suck on our thumbs

 

[CHN Bamboo]

Young people are just too selfish these days.

I cant understand u..

 

[Sommer]

This is oringinal:

If you make all the data in one coordinate system.

There was never such a big country like China to realize industrialization in history, that's why I don't think you can compare it to any other country easily, on the other hand, India can learn a lot from chinese experience.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

Have you ever created any mathematical model in your life? No, I'm gonna change the question. Have you ever seen any mathematical model in your life?

Every mathematical model, every single one, that predicts the future is probablistic unless it's a law of nature. Quantum mechanics showed us that, even mathematical models regarding laws of nature are probablistic. And let me give you a hint, population models are hardly laws of nature, and they are proven to be extremely divergent from actual values many times in the past.

And this one clearly, one of the worse employment models I have ever seen. I might think that, a very ignorant person has prepared this, if this is not a propaganda work.

Let's look at the birth rate graphs. I will use South Korea, Japan and Germany as benchmarks since these countries are among the lowest birth rate countries.
View attachment 260236

As it's clearly seen China persistantly had a higher birth rates from the benchmark countries since 1982.

Now let's have a look at the labor force graphic of the benchmark countries.

View attachment 260237

Oh my God!? A straight line!? There is no bell shaped curve that indicates a demographic nighmare and an economic apocalypse.

And let's make it a little bit more complicated. Let's have a look at Russian Birth Rates, and compare with benchmark countries.

View attachment 260239

But how can this be? What kind of sorcery is this? Russia had lowest birth rate in 1999, but in 2013 it's way higher.

Bottom line is, population dynamics can be changed pretty quick. And in none of the countries of againg population there is a bell shaped curve like this in the labor force graphic. What you've posted is pure nonsense.

To your answer, yes I literally work to do this.

Next you are correct, in almost all things.

Finally, I mentioned that prediction with population is relatively easy because there are fewer variables, and less noise. Yet, as you mentioned even those variables may change. That is why I have explicitly mentioned that this will happen if nothing is done to counter the trend.

Till now, very little has been done to counter. The one child policy was relaxed, yet only slightly.

I think by the end of the year China should completely lift the policy of birth control. Wait for 2-3 years to see response, and if things don't pan out, than try to encourage more births.

This is oringinal:
View attachment 260322

If you make all the data in one coordinate system.
View attachment 260325

There was never such a big country like China to realize industrialization in history, that's why I don't think you can compare it to any other country easily, on the other hand, India can learn a lot from chinese experience.

China in many ways is a scaled up version of Japan.

 

[Sommer]

To your answer, yes I literally work to do this.

Next you are correct, in almost all things.

Finally, I mentioned that prediction with population is relatively easy because there are fewer variables, and less noise. Yet, as you mentioned even those variables may change. That is why I have explicitly mentioned that this will happen if nothing is done to counter the trend.

Till now, very little has been done to counter. The one child policy was relaxed, yet only slightly.

I think by the end of the year China should completely lift the policy of birth control. Wait for 2-3 years to see response, and if things don't pan out, than try to encourage more births.



China in many ways is a scaled up version of Japan.

If you say so.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

If you say so.

Can you give me the excel sheet where you have have the tabulated data for the population chart that you have just posted?