China’s population shrinks for first time in over 60 years: Official data

[SoulSpokesman]

Men need to pull their wieght. They need to pregnate and lactate (worldwide, not just China)

Regards

 

[tower9]

Yet they still have a limit on 3 kids? Lol

God these people are stupid. They actually kept the one child policy until a few years ago up to when their population was on the verge of collapse.

China is the only country that even has limits on childbirth. How fucking stupid.

 

[Mista]

No one wants to have babies during the pandemic, people worry the health of the new borns due to covid, it'll pick up in the future.

Covid is just one factor. Another important factor is the steep fall in childbearing age woman population.

In the next 10 years, the number of Chinese women aged 23-30 will decrease by 40%, a huge drop in this child-bearing age group

China birth rate: Mothers, your country needs you!

Why ageing China's failure to raise its birth rate poses a crisis for the future.

www.bbc.com

China's birth rate last year was just 6.77 births per 1,000 people, down from a rate of 7.52 births in 2021 and marking the lowest birth rate on record.

The number of Chinese women of childbearing age, which the government defines as 25 to 35, fell by about 4 million, Kang said.

China's first population drop in six decades sounds alarm on demographic crisis

China's population fell last year for the first time in six decades, a historic turn that is expected to mark the start of a long period of decline in its citizen numbers with profound implications for its economy and the world.

www.reuters.com

 

[beijingwalker]

I never worry about China's population, we still has way more people than most countries combined, Chinese population rose and fell sharply numerous times in the history but can always be stablised by themselves and grew.

 

[beijingwalker]

Covid is just one factor. Another important factor is the steep fall in childbearing age woman population.

Or maybe now too many girls spend too much time on learning in school

‘All study, no social life’: mother in China complains high-achieving daughter with PhD just reads and won’t find a man​

‘All study, no social life’: Chinese mum fears daughter with PhD won’t find a man

Mainland social media is enthralled by a worried mother and her academic daughter after a video of the mother fretting over her child’s antisocial behaviour went viral.

www.scmp.com

 

[Song Hong]

The most important factor of having more children is girl must marry early. Suggest China lower the marry age to 16.

 

[Realtalk108]

This is wonderful news! China will start to have more room. And that will push TFR back up in the future.

Yes, a lot of Chinese elderly will die poor. But they have spent their entire lives poor. There isn't much you can do about it.

Once population goes down, it is often quite fast, and very difficult to stop. It is not about Covid or other things. It is about the population structure. The fertile woman percentage is not healthy.

Eventually it will be a reverse pyramid until population suddenly shrink and accelerate at a horrible pace.

Everyone dies. What's so 'horrible' about it?

The thing about 'demographic collapse', is that even if you don't do anything, the 'collapse' vanishes on its own in about 2 generations.

Yet they still have a limit on 3 kids? Lol

They indeed are. I mean what's the point lol? Just allow as many kids as you want.

Although I guess the purpose of the 3-limit may be to stop 'unwanted' section of population having too many kids. So not stupid and based actually?

 

[REhorror]

China already has a lot of ground.
Western China is underdeveloped as f*ck, and it's mainly concentrated in the South East/Middle (Shanghai to Guangdong).

Then again, it's these underdeveloped areas that have high birthrate, until their sons and daughters migrate to the big cities.

 

[Beny Karachun]

Nothing to worry about. By increasing the retirement age from current average 54 to 67, China will gain at least 20-25% workforce.

What the hell? China's retirement age is 54? It's 64 here lol.

 

[Mista]

They actually kept the one child policy until a few years ago up to when their population was on the verge of collapse.

The family planning committee (dissolved in 2018) don't believe the stats and continued the OCP. Some say it's due to vested interest that they continued the policy so that they can keep the department relevant.

近一二十年来，各种证据一再显示中国早已经陷入超低生育率陷阱。根据国家统计局的数据，中国2010到2014年的生育率分别为1.18、1.04、1.26、1.24、1.28，平均生育率仅1.2，即使取最高值也只有1.28。但2015年11月5日国家卫计委基层指导司司长杨文庄，依然声称实际生育率介于1.5到1.6。如果说生育率确实有这么高，那意味着2015年耗资不菲的人口小普查所得出的1.05的数据就漏算了1/3的婴儿；普查机构是不是应该为这么大的漏报比例承担责任？

由于都是基于抽样，再加上各种宏观因素影响，各年生育率会有一定波动性，但不可能会相差1/3。问题并不是国家统计局抽样调查的漏报，而是计划生育部门以漏报为理由一而再、再而三地大幅调高生育率数据，严重误导决策层和民众。上个月，湖北宜昌市卫计委等部门联合发出提倡生育二孩的公开信后，我们就关注过当地的生育数据。2015年8月宜昌进行了一项大规模的生育调查；结果显示，当地2015年总和生育率仅有0.81。宜昌的调查是基于30%的育龄妇女，抽样比例是一般生育率调查的30倍，应当非常准确。

宜昌是一个地级市，包括5个县，其中还有少数民族地区，该地的城市化率还略低于全国平均水平。考虑到这些因素，如果说宜昌的生育率仅有0.81，那全国1.05的生育率并不离奇。宜昌的数据也暗示，国家统计局根据人口普查和每年抽样调查所公布的数据，并不像计划生育部门一直宣称的那样严重高估了生育率；而后者对生育率的调整则是刻意的误导。而且，2015年的数据是来自抽样比例较高的小普查，按理应该比之前的几年更准确。

梁建章：中国生育率1.05可信吗_观点频道_财新网

,如果1.05的生育率属实，那中国的生育水平就是全球最低，而不是最低之一。综合判断，2016和2017年生育率会显著反弹，但在此之后，出生人口将面临雪崩

opinion.caixin.com

Can't believe such a committee is allowed to carry on with its erroneous policy for decades without checks and balances.

 

[beijingwalker]

China already has a lot of ground.
Western China is underdeveloped as f*ck, and it's mainly concentrated in the South East/Middle (Shanghai to Guangdong).

Then again, it's these underdeveloped areas that have high birthrate, until their sons and daughters migrate to the big cities.

True, over half of China has very few people, very sparsely populated

The family planning committee (dissolved in 2018) don't believe the stats and continued the OCP policy. Some say it's due to vested interest that they continued the policy so that they can keep the department relevant.

梁建章：中国生育率1.05可信吗_观点频道_财新网

,如果1.05的生育率属实，那中国的生育水平就是全球最低，而不是最低之一。综合判断，2016和2017年生育率会显著反弹，但在此之后，出生人口将面临雪崩

opinion.caixin.com

Can't believe such a committee is allowed to carry on with its erroneous policy for decades without checks and balances.

It's never accurate due to the one child policy, but now it's getting better, every child will be registered, before many rural families only registered boys, didn't register girls.

China just registered 14 million people that never officially existed before

Many of these are women and children.

mashable.com

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

 

[REhorror]

True, over half of China has very few people, very sparsely populated

This is true for most East asian countries and Vietnam, considering our method of development being pumping people into metropolis.
The govt needs to enforce more people to the countryside and less concentration if they want more birthrate.

 

[Mista]

True, over half of China has very few people, very sparsely populated

It's never accurate due to the one child policy, but now it's getting better, every child will be registered

China just registered 14 million people that never officially existed before

Many of these are women and children.

mashable.com

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

But 12-14mil from 2000 to 2010 is nowhere near 1/3 of births.

 

[beijingwalker]

But 12-14mil from 2000 to 2010 is nowhere near 1/3 of births.

I don't just believe a random article, I admit those datas are never very accurate, but if the local goverrnments deliberately faked the numbers , they would make the number smaller but not bigger during the one child policy years, back then lower birth rate meant good job performance for the local officials.

 

[Mista]

Or maybe now too many girls spend too much time on learning in school

But we can't possibly restrict woman from entering universities like the Japanese did in the earlier days...