China's population is projected to decline to 800 million, while US goes to 450 million.

[Huan]

Land carrying capacity is limited,1 billion is enough.
I can feel in newspaper,every year the number of Hubei student declines.And many Chinese only want to have 1or2 child,it will keep declining except the life stress ease.

Expand your land territory, annex more land to increase land carrying capacity to 2 billion people...Just look at how big Russia is.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

So you assumption is no change in Chinese policy in managing population growth rate or as you eloquantly put it "no artificial jacking up of fertility rates". I rest my case.

Yes, a timely response can alter the situation. But I don't see it happening.

 

[waz]

Is China going to be hit by a meteorite from outer space? Ok how about a zombie outbreak in China's main cities? Either way I want to know how 600 million will just vanish. Let's take declining demographics into account, the figure can't be 800 million.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

Is China going to be hit by a meteorite from outer space? Ok how about a zombie outbreak in China's main cities? Either way I want to know how 600 million will just vanish. Let's take declining demographics into account, the figure can't be 800 million.

If every household has a child each, don't you see that every generation is getting halved?

Here China has a fertility rate of 1.5

The 800 million number is BS anyway. The OP's link actually lead to an article about textiles instead of population and the graph he linked assume a constant natural fertility rate with no regard to human factor, despite the fact human factor has been the dominant force in China for the past four decades.

I remember reading about a decade ago that Chinese government's goal, at that time, was a population equilibrium at 1.5 billion and I incline to agree with that number.

Oh! I gave the wrong link. This is totally different and you are right.

The link I wanted to give was related to the Pew research and observation on US demographic trends.

 

[waz]

If every household has a child each, don't you see that every generation is getting halved?

Here China has a fertility rate of 1.5

If present trends keep up.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

If present trends keep up.

They would. No country has been able to successfully turn the tide much. Singapore is a very good example due to shared culture etc. and Singapore essentially gave up and started bringing in immigrants.

The thing is as people get richer and better educated, they would want further less kids. Also, since they are rich, economic offerings may not entice them any more.

The 800 million number is BS anyway. The OP's link actually lead to an article about textiles instead of population and the graph he linked assume a constant natural fertility rate with no regard to human factor, despite the fact human factor has been the dominant force in China for the past four decades.

I remember reading about a decade ago that Chinese government's goal, at that time, was a population equilibrium at 1.5 billion and I incline to agree with that number.

Modern Immigration Wave Brings 59 Million to U.S. | Pew Research Center

Here's the link that I want to post. The graph was from this link. Sorry to confuse you.

I was just reading that paper on textiles when I also copied, and perhaps I mixed it up a bit.

 

[Lonely Hermit]

Is China going to be hit by a meteorite from outer space? Ok how about a zombie outbreak in China's main cities? Either way I want to know how 600 million will just vanish. Let's take declining demographics into account, the figure can't be 800 million.

Check out Japans demography

From a perfect pyramid to an Inverted pyramid China is facing a similar situation aggravated by their one child policy
China is basically what Japan was 20 years ago in terms of demographic

Low fertility rate will have adverse impact on these countries.

 

[waz]

Check out Japans demography

From a perfect pyramid to an Inverted pyramid China is facing a similar situation aggravated by their one child policy
China is basically what Japan was 20 years ago in terms of demographic

Low fertility rate will have adverse impact on these countries.

True, that is alarming.

 

[CHN Bamboo]

Expand your land territory, annex more land to increase land carrying capacity to 2 billion people...Just look at how big Russia is.

! what do you mean ?

If every household has a child each, don't you see that every generation is getting halved?

Here China has a fertility rate of 1.5



Oh! I gave the wrong link. This is totally different and you are right.

The link I wanted to give was related to the Pew research and observation on US demographic trends.

In fact,the villagers will have more children and muslim in China.If you only take people in city into account,the number is lower .

 

[tranquilium]

They would. No country has been able to successfully turn the tide much. Singapore is a very good example due to shared culture etc. and Singapore essentially gave up and started bringing in immigrants.

The thing is as people get richer and better educated, they would want further less kids. Also, since they are rich, economic offerings may not entice them any more.



Modern Immigration Wave Brings 59 Million to U.S. | Pew Research Center

Here's the link that I want to post. The graph was from this link. Sorry to confuse you.

I was just reading that paper on textiles when I also copied, and perhaps I mixed it up a bit.

Which again said nothing about China. I would like to see the source that states China's population will decline to 800 million and I will bet that source assumed the current fertility rate doesn't change.

 

[Jlaw]

The 800 million number is BS anyway. The OP's link actually lead to an article about textiles instead of population and the graph he linked assume a constant natural fertility rate with no regard to human factor, despite the fact human factor has been the dominant force in China for the past four decades.

I remember reading about a decade ago that Chinese government's goal, at that time, was a population equilibrium at 1.5 billion and I incline to agree with that number.

@Hu Songshan , it's against PDF policy to link articles to a fake source. Please ban this Bussard Ramjet troll.

Expand your land territory, annex more land to increase land carrying capacity to 2 billion people...Just look at how big Russia is.

True, can expand southbound.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

If you want sources, hear the WEF debate on Chinese demographics.

I can't emphasize enough, how much of a blunder China is doing, giving up its demographic strength.

In comparison, even Pakistan would have a higher population if the low case scenario were to be taken to be true.

Do you realize number of people is perhaps the most appropriate way to measure the size of the country?

@AndrewJin @Shotgunner51 @cirr

Also, people here were talking earlier about total strength. It seems India will exceed in total economic strength compared to China, since India's population will be anywhere between 3-4 times that of China. Even today China has per worker GDP that is around 3 times that of India.

The difference in per worker GDP would only decrease, making Indian GDP around 2-3 times that of China.

 

[TeesraIndiotHunter]

India would have 1.6 billion people by 2100 and China might have 1 billion.

These are all projections however. We don't know for real what's gonna happen.

There are two ways you can have population growth for a sustain period of time.


1- Extreme, extreme poverty (mainly the case in sub-saharan Africa only)
2- Superior cultural traits and discipline (Sexual discipline, strong family structure, decent marriage rates, and so on---this is most visible in Islamic World where average income is $11,000 per capita (PPP) but healthy population growth still happening due to superior cultural traits and discipline).

In real world, both of the above factors are at play however.

As china is achieving material strength--it's losing its traditional cultural traits due to extreme competition, young people wanting to enjoy their new found wealth, and increased Westernization etc. Plus, the one child policy is now showing it's trade offs. In case of India, there's a lot of poverty and traditional culture is still present to a certain extent--driving its population growth.

Islamic Civilization has been the largest, most global, and one of most influential civilization of human history. Going forward, the gap between Islamic World and others will only increase as Islamic World is on path to have around 30% of total humanity living within its rule/borders.

 

[Centurion2016]

NOT CONVINCED HOW POPULATION WILL DROP BY 600 MILLION IN just 4 generations

Not without a MASSIVE nuclear WAR

I CAN SEE chineae population falling but not that DRASTICALLY

This is a FORCAST by 2050

It has India & China virtually the Same at 1.5 BILLION http://www.photius.com/rankings/world2050_rank.html

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

India would have 1.6 billion people by 2100 and China might have 1 billion.

You are quoting two different things. You are citing China's largest population estimate for 2100, with India's lowest one for 2100.

If you look at the median estimates for both, you would have China at around 800 million people, and India at around 2 billion people.

These are all projections however. We don't know for real what's gonna happen.

Of course they are, but projections demonstrate what would happen if things don't change. And they are very useful indicators.

NOT CONVINCED HOW POPULATION WILL DROP BY 600 MILLION IN just 4 generations

Not without a MASSIVE nuclear WAR

I CAN SEE chineae population falling but not that DRASTICALLY

This is a FORCAST by 2050

It has India & China virtually the Same at 1.5 BILLION http://www.photius.com/rankings/world2050_rank.html

China stands right now at fertility rates hovering around 1.2.
This means that after every generation the number of people would decrease. There are too few children being born in China for its size. You would be shocked to hear that India has around 1.8 times as many children being born compared to China with almost the same size of population.

It has India & China virtually the Same at 1.5 BILLION http://www.photius.com/rankings/world2050_rank.html

Every random article on the net is not correct.

There are three flaws with this data:

1. It is old. Since 2001, there has been a further decline in fertility rates.
2. It is based on UNFPA estimates. These overestimate the fertility rates.

The stats I cited were according to leading Chinese social scientists.

NOT CONVINCED HOW POPULATION WILL DROP BY 600 MILLION IN just 4 generations

Not without a MASSIVE nuclear WAR

I CAN SEE chineae population falling but not that DRASTICALLY

This is a FORCAST by 2050

It has India & China virtually the Same at 1.5 BILLION http://www.photius.com/rankings/world2050_rank.html

One other problem will be that not only the population would have reduced a lot, the population would also have aged, which means that the work force would see a more sharp contraction.