China's nominal GDP will hit $15 TRILLION in 2018

[Martian2]

In October 2017, the IMF estimated China's 2017 nominal GDP to be 81,132 billion Yuans (see IMF chart below).

The latest data shows China's 2017 nominal GDP was 82,712 billion Yuans.

National Economy Maintained the Momentum of Stable and Sound Development and Exceeded the Expectation | National Bureau of Statistics of China (January 18, 2018)
"According to the preliminary estimation, the gross domestic product (GDP) of China was 82,712.2 billion yuan in 2017, an increase of 6.9 percent at constant price compared with last year. Specifically, the year-on-year growth of GDP for the first quarter was 6.9 percent, 6.9 percent for the second quarter, 6.8 percent for the third quarter, and 6.8 percent for the fourth quarter. The value added of the primary industry was 6,546.8 billion yuan, up by 3.9 percent over the previous year; that of the secondary industry was 33,462.3 billion yuan, up by 6.1 percent; and that of the tertiary industry was 42,703.2 billion yuan, up by 8.0 percent." (second paragraph)

The IMF underestimated China's 2017 nominal GDP by: 82,712 - 81,132 = 1,580 billion Yuans

The IMF projects China's 2018 nominal GDP to be 88,028 billion Yuans.

We have to add in the undercounted 1,580 billions Yuans for 2017.

An updated IMF projection for China's 2018 nominal GDP is 88,028 + 1,580 = 89,608 billion Yuans

The exchange rates is currently 6.32 Yuans per US dollar. We expect the Chinese currency to remain stable or grow stronger against the US dollar, because there is no longer capital flight from China. Large foreign investments by Chinese companies now require Chinese government approval to ensure it is a rational investment.

Without capital flight and having a $422 billion merchandise trade surplus in 2017, China's currency is unlikely to depreciate against the US dollar.

89,608 billion Yuans / 6.32 Yuans per US dollar = $14.18 trillion dollars for China's 2018 nominal GDP

The CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies) 224-page report shows that China's nominal GDP is actually $1 trillion larger if China switches to the modern SNA 2008 accounting method, which all western nations use. Currently, China is still implementing the antiquated SNA 1993 accounting method.

Link to CSIS report: http://csis.org/files/publication/150824_Rosen_BrokenAbacus_WEB.pdf

Since the United States uses the SNA 2008 accounting method (and for an apples-to-apples comparison), we have to add $1 trillion to China's nominal GDP under the SNA 1993 method.

$14.18 trillion + $1 trillion = $15.18 trillion dollars for China's 2018 nominal GDP under modern SNA 2008 accounting method
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5. Report for Selected Countries and Subjects | International Monetary Fund

 

[q12093487q]

Switch to SNA 2008 accounting method could add 1 trilliton dollar？Really？If it is ture，our GDP per capita could surpass 10700 dollars this year，as long as Dollar Yuan exchange rate remains stable

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Switch to SNA 2008 accounting method could add 1 trilliton dollar？Really？If it is ture，our GDP per capita could surpass 10700 dollars this year，as long as Dollar Yuan exchange rate remains stable

Yes, it could actually go even higher if we start counting the same things as developed countries do as part of our GDP.

But I think there is a political benefit to keeping China's GDP lower on paper, which is one reason why China has rejected the use of GDP PPP.

 

[MultaniGuy]

In October 2017, the IMF estimated China's 2017 nominal GDP to be 81,132 billion Yuans (see IMF chart below).

The latest data shows China's 2017 nominal GDP was 82,712 billion Yuans.

National Economy Maintained the Momentum of Stable and Sound Development and Exceeded the Expectation | National Bureau of Statistics of China (January 18, 2018)
"According to the preliminary estimation, the gross domestic product (GDP) of China was 82,712.2 billion yuan in 2017, an increase of 6.9 percent at constant price compared with last year. Specifically, the year-on-year growth of GDP for the first quarter was 6.9 percent, 6.9 percent for the second quarter, 6.8 percent for the third quarter, and 6.8 percent for the fourth quarter. The value added of the primary industry was 6,546.8 billion yuan, up by 3.9 percent over the previous year; that of the secondary industry was 33,462.3 billion yuan, up by 6.1 percent; and that of the tertiary industry was 42,703.2 billion yuan, up by 8.0 percent." (second paragraph)

The IMF underestimated China's 2017 nominal GDP by: 82,712 - 81,132 = 1,580 billion Yuans

The IMF projects China's 2018 nominal GDP to be 88,028 billion Yuans.

We have to add in the undercounted 1,580 billions Yuans for 2017.

An updated IMF projection for China's 2018 nominal GDP is 88,028 + 1,580 = 89,608 billion Yuans

The exchange rates is currently 6.32 Yuans per US dollar. We expect the Chinese currency to remain stable or grow stronger against the US dollar, because there is no longer capital flight from China. Large foreign investments by Chinese companies now require Chinese government approval to ensure it is a rational investment.

Without capital flight and having a $422 billion merchandise trade surplus in 2017, China's currency is unlikely to depreciate against the US dollar.

89,608 billion Yuans / 6.32 Yuans per US dollar = $14.18 trillion dollars for China's 2018 nominal GDP

The CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies) 224-page report shows that China's nominal GDP is actually $1 trillion larger if China switches to the modern SNA 2008 accounting method, which all western nations use. Currently, China is still implementing the antiquated SNA 1993 accounting method.

Link to CSIS report: http://csis.org/files/publication/150824_Rosen_BrokenAbacus_WEB.pdf

Since the United States uses the SNA 2008 accounting method (and for an apples-to-apples comparison), we have to add $1 trillion to China's nominal GDP under the SNA 1993 method.

$14.18 trillion + $1 trillion = $15.18 trillion dollars for China's 2018 nominal GDP under modern SNA 2008 accounting method
----------

5. Report for Selected Countries and Subjects | International Monetary Fund

Good news, the rise of China is in the best interests of the world.

 

[faithfulguy]

Switch to SNA 2008 accounting method could add 1 trilliton dollar？Really？If it is ture，our GDP per capita could surpass 10700 dollars this year，as long as Dollar Yuan exchange rate remains stable

Just because Supa Powa 12 use adjustment in GDP calculation to bolster its numbers doesn’t mean China should. Growth should be for the benefit of the people, not for online trolling like you know who.

There is still a lot of room for improvement in China. It’s people still need to work hard and focus on developing its economy. If there is a number that can be use for comparison, Its GDP per capita in PPP. Sp12 use total PPP to measure its national power. China should use it to measure the progress of its people. By that measurement, China still has a long way to go.

 

[Rasengan]

Continue the good work China and forget about those western individuals who forecast the collapse of China.

 

[Martian2]

Switch to SNA 2008 accounting method could add 1 trilliton dollar？Really？If it is ture，our GDP per capita could surpass 10700 dollars this year，as long as Dollar Yuan exchange rate remains stable

CSIS said China's nominal GDP would be $1.1 trillion larger (on page 223) under SNA 2008, but I rounded it down to $1 trillion for my convenience.

CSIS said China's 2014 nominal GDP would have been $11.5 trillion under SNA 2008, instead of the reported $10.4 trillion under SNA 1993. The difference is $1.1 trillion for the two different SNA accounting methods.
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CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies) 224 page report that China's nominal GDP is actually 15% larger than reported.

Link: http://csis.org/files/publication/150824_Rosen_BrokenAbacus_WEB.pdf

 

[faithfulguy]

On page 223, CSIS actually said $1.1 trillion larger but I rounded it down to $1 trillion for convenience.

CSIS said China's 2014 nominal GDP would have been $11.5 trillion under SNA 2008, instead of the $10.4 trillion under SNA 1993.
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CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies) 224 page report that China's nominal GDP is actually 15% larger than reported.

Link: http://csis.org/files/publication/150824_Rosen_BrokenAbacus_WEB.pdf

Nominal GDP figure is use by the west to measure the hard economic power of a country. But that is not the full story. As a matter of fact, that is of less importance.

What is more important is the focus on quality of its people’s life and it’s living standards. The education, health, energy and security of its people. China have been improving but it’s still a long way to go.

 

[Martian2]

Nominal GDP figure is use by the west to measure the hard economic power of a country. But that is not the full story. As a matter of fact, that is of less importance.

What is more important is the focus on quality of its people’s life and it’s living standards. The education, health, energy and security of its people. China have been improving but it’s still a long way to go.

Are you able to read English and the thread title?

The topic is about nominal GDP, not nominal GDP-per-capita.

If you want to discuss GDP-per-capita, go start your own thread and stop trolling my thread.

There's nothing more annoying than a troll that comes into my thread and says: "hey, I don't think nominal GDP is important!" "I think nominal GDP-per-capita is the real issue."

That's called hijacking someone's thread.

I want to discuss China's $15 trillion nominal GDP for 2018 and compare it to other Top 5 world economies in nominal GDP.

I couldn't care less about nominal GDP-per-capita, which is a completely separate topic.
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Just a few years ago, China's nominal GDP was about 60% of the United States.

At the end of this year (2018), China's nominal GDP when measured under the same SNA 2008 will be 75% of US nominal GDP.

China is catching up to the US in nominal GDP.

US 2018 nominal GDP: $20 trillion
China's 2018 nominal GDP using SNA 2008: $15 trillion

 

[Kiss_of_the_Dragon]

US is a 19 trillions and we're 15 Trillions: We could certainly afford to reach nuclear parity with US and conventional military parity to US in Asia, US just chose wrong partners in Asia and that will cost them a lot in the future for making strategic miscalculation.

 

[Kai Liu]

China's economy is definitely underestimated. Just look at the infrastructure, and auto sales, etc., no other country in history has ever achieved this:
https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/chinas-auto-sales-volume-reached-28-88-million-in-2017.540557/

 

[q12093487q]

China's economy is definitely underestimated. Just look at the infrastructure, and auto sales, etc., no other country in history has ever achieved this:
https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/chinas-auto-sales-volume-reached-28-88-million-in-2017.540557/

Well，I have said before，I strongly believe if not yuan is undervalued or dollar is overvalued right now，china could have an already larger GDP than USA

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Well，I have said before，I strongly believe if not yuan is undervalued or dollar is overvalued right now，china could have an already larger GDP than USA

Well, China has a stronger production capability than the US, so it is indeed the case.

And China has yet to reach its real potential.

 

[Martian2]

For nominal GDP, there is also the issue of central bank intervention.

For example, Taiwan only has 23 million people and a huge annual trade surplus of $57.9 billion.

Yet, Taiwan's currency remains unchanged at 30 New Taiwan Dollars per US dollar.

How does this happen? Shouldn't a large trade surplus push the Taiwanese currency higher?

The trick is central bank intervention.

If the Taiwanese central bank decides to print and sell unlimited New Taiwan Dollars (NT$) at the exchange rate of 30 NT$ for one US dollar then it is impossible for the exchange rate to rise above 30:1.

If there were no central bank intervention, the private market would demand a better exchange rate because there would only be a limited number of sellers at 30:1.

Central bank denies foreign exchange intervention report | Focus Taiwan (December 11, 2017)
"Dec 11, 2017 - Taipei, Dec. 11 (CNA) Taiwan's central bank on Monday rejected a Bloomberg report that accused the bank of engaging in foreign exchange manipulation to keep the Taiwan dollar cheaper than other regional currencies."
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It is unknown whether mainland China's central bank intervenes in the foreign exchange markets. If it does, the extent and frequency are unknown.

 

[Farbeyonddriven]

that's dope,bro