China's nominal GDP will hit $15 TRILLION in 2018

[Chinese-Dragon]

Technically the Yuan should always be rising, due to China's consistent trade surplus as well as inward investment. But China balances it out by lending money overseas, buying assets overseas, investing overseas, and buying foreign currency and related assets from overseas.

Which is one of the reasons why China has such enormous currency reserves. China is trying to maintain a managed float of the Yuan's value to prevent it rising too much. But it's not such a problem anymore due to how much money China is lending and investing overseas.

China's economy is definitely underestimated. Just look at the infrastructure, and auto sales, etc., no other country in history has ever achieved this:
https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/chinas-auto-sales-volume-reached-28-88-million-in-2017.540557/

Definitely yes.

However it is not politically useful for China to be seen as the largest economy, otherwise the rest of the world will expect too much from us.

 

[F-22Raptor]

In October 2017, the IMF estimated China's 2017 nominal GDP to be 81,132 billion Yuans (see IMF chart below).

The latest data shows China's 2017 nominal GDP was 82,712 billion Yuans.

National Economy Maintained the Momentum of Stable and Sound Development and Exceeded the Expectation | National Bureau of Statistics of China (January 18, 2018)
"According to the preliminary estimation, the gross domestic product (GDP) of China was 82,712.2 billion yuan in 2017, an increase of 6.9 percent at constant price compared with last year. Specifically, the year-on-year growth of GDP for the first quarter was 6.9 percent, 6.9 percent for the second quarter, 6.8 percent for the third quarter, and 6.8 percent for the fourth quarter. The value added of the primary industry was 6,546.8 billion yuan, up by 3.9 percent over the previous year; that of the secondary industry was 33,462.3 billion yuan, up by 6.1 percent; and that of the tertiary industry was 42,703.2 billion yuan, up by 8.0 percent." (second paragraph)

The IMF underestimated China's 2017 nominal GDP by: 82,712 - 81,132 = 1,580 billion Yuans

The IMF projects China's 2018 nominal GDP to be 88,028 billion Yuans.

We have to add in the undercounted 1,580 billions Yuans for 2017.

An updated IMF projection for China's 2018 nominal GDP is 88,028 + 1,580 = 89,608 billion Yuans

The exchange rates is currently 6.32 Yuans per US dollar. We expect the Chinese currency to remain stable or grow stronger against the US dollar, because there is no longer capital flight from China. Large foreign investments by Chinese companies now require Chinese government approval to ensure it is a rational investment.

Without capital flight and having a $422 billion merchandise trade surplus in 2017, China's currency is unlikely to depreciate against the US dollar.

89,608 billion Yuans / 6.32 Yuans per US dollar = $14.18 trillion dollars for China's 2018 nominal GDP

The CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies) 224-page report shows that China's nominal GDP is actually $1 trillion larger if China switches to the modern SNA 2008 accounting method, which all western nations use. Currently, China is still implementing the antiquated SNA 1993 accounting method.

Link to CSIS report: http://csis.org/files/publication/150824_Rosen_BrokenAbacus_WEB.pdf

Since the United States uses the SNA 2008 accounting method (and for an apples-to-apples comparison), we have to add $1 trillion to China's nominal GDP under the SNA 1993 method.

$14.18 trillion + $1 trillion = $15.18 trillion dollars for China's 2018 nominal GDP under modern SNA 2008 accounting method
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5. Report for Selected Countries and Subjects | International Monetary Fund

Hasn't China already implemented the SNA2008 changes to its GDP calculations?

Article from July 2016:

BEIJING, July 5 (Xinhua) -- China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has adopted a new method of calculating GDP that it says "better reflects the contribution of innovation to economic growth."

Research and development (R&D) expenditures that can economically benefit companies will no longer be calculated as intermediate consumption, but as fixed capital formation, the NBS said in a statement.

The adjustment was made according to the 2008 SNA (System of National Accounts), which was unveiled by five international organizations, including the United Nations, in 2009 to provide a "comprehensive, consistent and flexible set of macroeconomic accounts."

The NBS will use the method for future GDP calculations, and has also recalculated all figures dating back to 1952.

http://eng.chinamil.com.cn/news-channels/2016-07/06/content_7136963.htm

 

[AndrewJin]

Hasn't China already implemented the SNA2008 changes to its GDP calculations?

Article from July 2016:

BEIJING, July 5 (Xinhua) -- China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has adopted a new method of calculating GDP that it says "better reflects the contribution of innovation to economic growth."

Research and development (R&D) expenditures that can economically benefit companies will no longer be calculated as intermediate consumption, but as fixed capital formation, the NBS said in a statement.

The adjustment was made according to the 2008 SNA (System of National Accounts), which was unveiled by five international organizations, including the United Nations, in 2009 to provide a "comprehensive, consistent and flexible set of macroeconomic accounts."

The NBS will use the method for future GDP calculations, and has also recalculated all figures dating back to 1952.

http://eng.chinamil.com.cn/news-channels/2016-07/06/content_7136963.htm

No.

 

[Kiss_of_the_Dragon]

However it is not politically useful for China to be seen as the largest economy, otherwise the rest of the world will expect too much from us.

As largest economy, we can rewrite the international economic rule that will be fair for China and the world and not unilaterally benefit only US, I think US should expect this day to come.

 

[F-22Raptor]

No.

My source, the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics, says otherwise. Do you have a government source that counters mine?


GDP revision reflects real picture of China's economy

BEIJING - China's statistics authority altered the way quarterly GDP data are calculated, a move analysts have called a step toward meeting international standards and improving accuracy.

Research and development (R&D) expenditures that can economically benefit companies will no longer be calculated as intermediate consumption, but as fixed capital formation, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced on Tuesday.

That will add $131 billion to last year's GDP figure, the NBS said.

Cheng Zilin, head of the NBS's Department of National Accounts, said the revision better reflects the contribution of innovation to economic growth.

In recent years, China has promoted science, technology and creative development, with rapid growth in R&D expenditures and an increasingly important role for R&D in economic growth.

However, the old calculation method failed to reflect the importance of R&D, as intermediate consumption only measures value of goods and services that are transformed or entirely used up in the course of production.

According to the System of National Accounts 2008 (SNA 2008), an international standard for measuring a country's economic activity, R&D expenditures that yield economic benefit should not be considered "completely used up in the accounting period," and thus should be recorded as fixed capital formation, which is part of GDP.

This methodology, introduced in 2009, has been adopted by most member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), including the United States, Canada and Australia.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2016-07/07/content_26000072.htm

US is a 19 trillions and we're 15 Trillions: We could certainly afford to reach nuclear parity with US and conventional military parity to US in Asia, US just chose wrong partners in Asia and that will cost them a lot in the future for making strategic miscalculation.

This is not accurate. First off, its unlikely China reaches $15 trillion this year. An second, the US economy is already at $19.8 trillion now. Considering estimated IMF growth figures for the US in 2018, the US economy should grow to around $20.5-20.7 trillion by the end of the year.

 

[Kiss_of_the_Dragon]

This is not accurate. First off, its unlikely China reaches $15 trillion this year. An second, the US economy is already at $19.8 trillion now. Considering estimated IMF growth figures for the US in 2018, the US economy should grow to around $20.5-20.7 trillion by the end of the year.

Does it make any big difference, with such GDP, we can certainly afford to acquire Nuclear and Conventional Parity over Asia to deal with US, Soviet got bankrupted because with their weak economy, they kept continue arm race during the Cold war and quest for global domination against US but China learn the lesson, we don't need to compete with US for world domination but make sure that US will win no war in Asia against China and let US bleeding elsewhere such as in Middle East.

And as I said before, US is not China historical enemy but choose the wrong Partners in Asia by picking China as adversary, the useless India and Japan have less to offer compare to what China can offer: China most bordered nation of the world and connect to more than half population on earth, as a world factory we could offer US corporations such as Apple and Ford...a great deal of using China as manufacturing bases and trade route to distribute American products to entire Asia continent and ensure US a centuries of prosperity but it's a shame that US seen China as a potential competitor than potential partner.

 

[Khanate]

Interesting times ahead.

 

[TaiShang]

My source, the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics, says otherwise. Do you have a government source that counters mine?


GDP revision reflects real picture of China's economy

BEIJING - China's statistics authority altered the way quarterly GDP data are calculated, a move analysts have called a step toward meeting international standards and improving accuracy.

Research and development (R&D) expenditures that can economically benefit companies will no longer be calculated as intermediate consumption, but as fixed capital formation, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced on Tuesday.

That will add $131 billion to last year's GDP figure, the NBS said.

Cheng Zilin, head of the NBS's Department of National Accounts, said the revision better reflects the contribution of innovation to economic growth.

In recent years, China has promoted science, technology and creative development, with rapid growth in R&D expenditures and an increasingly important role for R&D in economic growth.

However, the old calculation method failed to reflect the importance of R&D, as intermediate consumption only measures value of goods and services that are transformed or entirely used up in the course of production.

According to the System of National Accounts 2008 (SNA 2008), an international standard for measuring a country's economic activity, R&D expenditures that yield economic benefit should not be considered "completely used up in the accounting period," and thus should be recorded as fixed capital formation, which is part of GDP.

This methodology, introduced in 2009, has been adopted by most member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), including the United States, Canada and Australia.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2016-07/07/content_26000072.htm



This is not accurate. First off, its unlikely China reaches $15 trillion this year. An second, the US economy is already at $19.8 trillion now. Considering estimated IMF growth figures for the US in 2018, the US economy should grow to around $20.5-20.7 trillion by the end of the year.

No, Indian friend, the new methodology has been only partially adopted. China does not want to be seen another SP12 of yours.

 

[F-22Raptor]

No, Indian friend. the new methodology has been only partially adopted. China does not want to be seen another SP12 of yours.

Still obsessed with that Indian nonsense LP?

An partially adopted? Let me know when that phantom $1 trillion shows up.

Meanwhile:

1.5 Related Laws and Regulations

GDP accounting was strictly complying with the provisions of the Statistics Law of the People's Republic of China. At present, China's GDP was measured in accordance with the requirements of the China's System of National Accounts (CSNA) (2016), which has adopted the basic accounting principles, contents and methods of the United Nation's System of National Accounts (SNA) 2008.

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/201710/t20171023_1545167.html

 

[AndrewJin]

Continue the good work China and forget about those western individuals who forecast the collapse of China.

Welcome back!

Still obsessed with that Indian nonsense LP?

An partially adopted? Let me know when that phantom $1 trillion shows up.

Meanwhile:

1.5 Related Laws and Regulations

GDP accounting was strictly complying with the provisions of the Statistics Law of the People's Republic of China. At present, China's GDP was measured in accordance with the requirements of the China's System of National Accounts (CSNA) (2016), which has adopted the basic accounting principles, contents and methods of the United Nation's System of National Accounts (SNA) 2008.

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/201710/t20171023_1545167.html

It has not.

Even now, only some cities do.

 

[F-22Raptor]

Welcome back!


It has not.

Even now, only some cities do.

4.4 Comparability of Data

China's System of National Accounts (2016) adopted the basic accounting principles, contents and methods of the United Nation's System of National Accounts (SNA) 2008，therefore the GDP data are internationally comparable.

After the national economic censuses have been carried out, or the calculation methods and classification criteria have been changed, historical quarterly GDP data have been revised. Therefore, time series data of quarterly GDP are comparable since the first quarter of 1992.

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/201710/t20171023_1545167.html

This is straight from your own government!

 

[Kiss_of_the_Dragon]

No, Indian friend, the new methodology has been only partially adopted. China does not want to be seen another SP12 of yours.

Oh he's Indian...what a waste of my precious time...LMAO

 

[cirr]

4.4 Comparability of Data

China's System of National Accounts (2016) adopted the basic accounting principles, contents and methods of the United Nation's System of National Accounts (SNA) 2008，therefore the GDP data are internationally comparable.

After the national economic censuses have been carried out, or the calculation methods and classification criteria have been changed, historical quarterly GDP data have been revised. Therefore, time series data of quarterly GDP are comparable since the first quarter of 1992.

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/201710/t20171023_1545167.html

This is straight from your own government!

Listen dude, don't make an utter fool of yourself just because you dont read Chinese

Here it is from the horse's mouth:

http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjgz/tzgb/201708/t20170823_1527059.html

Check it out!

PS Leaving out exorbitant legal fees, wanton healthcare expenses, questionable owner-occupier housing expenditure, greedy stock options, revenues from trades such as prostitution drugs and betting, etc etc etc....your adopted country's GDP is ...

 

[AndrewJin]

4.4 Comparability of Data

China's System of National Accounts (2016) adopted the basic accounting principles, contents and methods of the United Nation's System of National Accounts (SNA) 2008，therefore the GDP data are internationally comparable.

After the national economic censuses have been carried out, or the calculation methods and classification criteria have been changed, historical quarterly GDP data have been revised. Therefore, time series data of quarterly GDP are comparable since the first quarter of 1992.

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/pressrelease/201710/t20171023_1545167.html

This is straight from your own government!

pls refer to Chinese source.

Until now most statistics are still using the old one.

 

[zeronet]

china took only R&D into GDP calculation, and added 1.3% GDP by doing that. under sna2008, China still miss the biggest part: house rent calculation. in old way (sna1993), house value is listed by its construction cost, in sna 2008, however, it is listed by its real market value, u see the huge boost in the GDP calculation considering china's soaring property market in the past decades. usually sna 2008 will give u 5～6% gdp boost for normal countries, china is not there yet. but i doubt they will do it in the near future