China’s export controls on gallium likely to hit US defense industry: experts

[Song Hong]

In so many words you have no idea how much gallium is used in a F-35, and you have no idea what the production capacity of primary and secondary low-purity gallium is outside China. Germany restarted gallium production in 2021, and others will follow if prices go up.
FYI the price of refined high-purity gallium is $500 for 1.000 grams.

How am I suppose to know exactly top secret aerospace defence product? Some people say F35 consume these much that much rare earth, I bet no one knows. All guess work.

 

[dbc]

GAN has almost no alternatives

Not true, cubic boron arsenide is far superior to Gallium Arsenide / Gallium Nitride. The challenge is to produce defect free boron arsenide, a feat accomplished by UCLA researchers in 2018.

 

[Song Hong]

Not true, cubic boron arsenide is far superior to Gallium Arsenide / Gallium Nitride. The challenge is to produce defect free boron arsenide, a feat accomplished by UCLA researchers in 2018.

You can find exotic material surpassing GAN but for engineering reasons, they are not ready for production.

 

[zhxy]

You can find exotic material surpassing GAN but for engineering reasons, they are not ready for production.

The ban from China will help Western countries speed up production and solve any technical problems.

Previously, Obama had banned the export of chips for supercomputers, and a year later, China had domestic chips to replace products from the West. If Obama can see the future, he will continue to sell chips to China. It won't stop China from creating its own products, but it will slow down Chinese research and help American corporations make more money.

Now, China bans the export of gallium. Could it weaken or collapse the US military-industrial system? The answer is "No". It only prompts the US to look for supplies from friendly countries or to research better technologies to replace it.

 

[Song Hong]

The ban from China will help Western countries speed up production and solve any technical problems.

Previously, Obama had banned the export of chips for supercomputers, and a year later, China had domestic chips to replace products from the West. If Obama can see the future, he will continue to sell chips to China. It won't stop China from creating its own products, but it will slow down Chinese research and help American corporations make more money.

Now, China bans the export of gallium. Could it weaken or collapse the US military-industrial system? The answer is "No", it only prompts the US to look for supplies from friendly countries or to research better technologies to replace it.

True for China but I am not sure whether it is true for US.

They need Australia and Canada to set up integrated mining system. The refined ores need to go through process to extract gallium. They need to R&D on process technologies.

All these needs central planning and not individual capitalists.

 

[dbc]

You can find exotic material surpassing GAN but for engineering reasons, they are not ready for production.

Well if GaN isn’t available then businesses will invest in retooling to pivot to alternatives. Also, boranylidynearsane isn’t exotic, it is readily available.

 

[Song Hong]

Well if GaN isn’t available then businesses will invest in retooling to pivot to alternatives. Also, boranylidynearsane isn’t exotic, it is readily available.

No alternative for GAN next 20 years. This is problem.

In some application such as X Band radar, the viable alternative is using Silicon MOSFET pay a big price of 3-5x TR module surface area -- making it impractical for many application.

 

[dbc]

No alternative for GAN next 20 years. This is problem.

Says who?

 

[GreatHanWarrior]

Not true, cubic boron arsenide is far superior to Gallium Arsenide / Gallium Nitride. The challenge is to produce defect free boron arsenide, a feat accomplished by UCLA researchers in 2018.

Relax. Apple still uses Chinese technology.

 

[Song Hong]

Says who?

You are defintely not doing RF.

 

[beijingwalker]

The ban from China will help Western countries speed up production and solve any technical problems.

Same is for the Chinese chip makers, ban is not always bad

 

[hari sud]

US had already fully understood the likely Chinese retaliation after chip hardware manufacturing blockage. Even in this trade episode, the Chinese have not blocked any Rare Element sale, just put some controls on it to block its exports it in the future, if needed.

The Chinese are so afraid of American anger that the Americans if angry, could put 10% or 20% duty on all Chinese imports. That will shutdown most factories in China. That will be a beginning of another revolution in China and overthrow the current Communist Party regime.

I am sure that Chinese will not ban Rare Elements export but control it. They know the bad consequences.

Moreover US needs 3 to 4 years to shift a lot of manufacture out of China. In this matter the US has already warmed up with India. All India needs is FDI on the same scale as was sent to China from 1995 till 2010. Already Technologically, india is very advanced. It needs money and help here and there.

 

[Song Hong]

Miitary grade GAN is easier to make in process technology as it uses very big node, sometimes um or even mm.

Banning gallium will almost certainly put western military radar to death.

China can create own GAN IC, and after a few generation, Western engineer will be lay off and entire companies loss technologies. Meanwhile China will be top RF country.

Actually unlike Silicon, gallium use is very niche and almost always in defence. Banning galium may still affect mobile phone but there are still clumsy alternative.

 

[MH.Yang]

lol you don't think US companies can skirt sanctions like how china does?

Almost all of China's mining companies are state-owned enterprises. They will fully implement the decisions of the Chinese government.

 

[Nan Yang]

Here's my take.

In Semiconductor Industry United States is Strongest, China weakest. If China try to fight in this front it cannot win.
However there are many industry where China is strongest and US is weakest.
This is where China will now open a new front. Gallium and Germanium is this new front.