China’s economy will not overtake the US until 2060, if ever

[etylo]

payback for opium war. Let the US worry about genders and LGBT issues while dosing themselves up with narcotics. Drug use and sexual hedonism is the calling sign of every depreciating empire.

US is just making excuses, making China a covenient scapegoat for their uncontrollable thirst for drugs, those bastards govs waged opium wars on China in the past, no comparisons.

 

[beijingwalker]

Eh: What the UK did in centuries past is a truly pathetic justification.

Funny to see a pathetic western cheerleader, a slave cheering for their white masters.

 

[Dalit]

As he embarks on a third term, Xi Jinping’s goal is to make China a mid-level developed country in the next decade, which implies that the economy will need to expand at a rate of around 5 per cent. But underlying trends — bad demographics, heavy debt and declining productivity growth — suggest the country’s overall growth potential is about half that rate.

The implications of China growing at 2.5 per cent have yet to be fully digested anywhere, including Beijing. For one thing, assuming that the US grows at 1.5 per cent, with similar rates of inflation and a stable exchange rate, China would not overtake America as the world’s largest economy until 2060, if ever.
https://www.ft.com/content/cff42bc4-f9e3-4f51-985a-86518934afbe

Growth in the long term depends on more workers using more capital, and using it more efficiently (productivity). China, with a shrinking population and declining productivity growth, has been growing by injecting more capital into the economy at an unsustainable rate.

China is now a middle-income country, a stage when many economies naturally start to slow given the higher base. Its per capita income is currently $12,500, one-fifth that of the US. There are 38 advanced economies today, and all of them grew past the $12,500 income level in the decades after the second world war — most quite gradually. Only 19 grew at 2.5 per cent or faster for the next 10 years, and did so with a boost from more workers; on average the working age population grew at 1.2 per cent a year. Only two (Lithuania and Latvia) had a shrinking workforce.

China is an outlier. It would be the first large middle-income country to sustain 2.5 per cent gross domestic product growth despite working-age population decline, which began in 2015. And in China this decline is precipitous, on track to contract at an annual rate of nearly 0.5 per cent in the coming decades. Then there’s the debt. In the 19 countries that sustained 2.5 per cent growth after reaching China’s current income level, debt (including government, households and businesses) averaged 170 per cent of GDP. None had debts nearly as high as China’s.

Before the 2008 crisis, China’s debts held steady at about 150 per cent of GDP; afterwards it began pumping out credit to boost growth, and debts spiked to 220 per cent of GDP by 2015. Debt binges normally lead to a sharp slowdown, and China’s economy did decelerate in the 2010s, but only from 10 per cent to 6 per cent — less dramatically than past patterns would predict.

China avoided a deeper slowdown thanks to a tech sector boom and, more importantly, by issuing more debt. Total debt is up to 275 per cent of GDP, and much of it funded investment in the property bubble, where all too much of it went to waste.
https://www.ft.com/content/cff42bc4-f9e3-4f51-985a-86518934afbe

Though capital — largely property investment — helped pump up GDP growth, productivity growth fell by half to 0.7 per cent last decade. The efficiency of capital collapsed. China now has to invest $8 to generate $1 of GDP growth, twice the level a decade ago, and the worst of any major economy.

In this situation, 2.5 per cent growth will be an achievement. Sustaining basic productivity growth of 0.7 per cent will barely offset population decline. To hit 5 per cent GDP growth, China would need capital growth rates near those of the 2010s. Most of that money went into physical infrastructure: roads, bridges and housing. Given the scale of the housing bust, it’s likely overall capital growth will fall back to about 2.5 per cent.

Of course, the consensus is that China can achieve whatever target the government sets, but consensus forecasts have fallen short of recognising the pace of China’s slowdown in recent years, including this one, when growth is likely to fall below 3 per cent. Around 2010, many prominent forecasters thought China’s economy was going to overtake the US’s in nominal terms by 2020.

By 2014, some economists were claiming that China already was the world’s largest economy in terms of purchasing power parity — a construct based on theoretical currency values with no meaning in the real world. These theoreticians argued that the yuan was grossly undervalued and bound to appreciate against the dollar, revealing the dominance of China’s economy.
Instead, the Chinese currency depreciated, and its economy is still a third smaller than the US’s in nominal terms. If anything, 2.5 per cent is an optimistic forecast that plays down the risks to growth, including growing tensions between China and its major trade partners, growing government interference in the most productive private sector — technology — and mounting concerns about the debt load.

China at 2.5 per cent growth has major implications for its ambitions as an economic, diplomatic and military superpower. A lesser China is more likely than the world yet realises.

China’s economy will not overtake the US until 2060, if ever

The consensus that Beijing can achieve whatever target it sets ignores the pace of slowdown in recent years

www.ft.com

Does it need to overtake US economy? I like Chinese wisdom. 2nd place is good enough. Operate in stealth and continue to prosper without triggering anyone. Yet, daddy America is still triggered LOL I wonder why.

 

[VCheng]

US is just making excuses, making China a covenient scapegoat for their uncontrollable thirst for drugs, those bastards govs waged opium wars on China in the past, no comparisons.

USA had absolutely NOTHING to do with the Opium Wars.

 

[Beast]

The US economy grew 2.6% in Q3, and near $26T in GDP.

With Chinas economic and demographic decline, it’s looking exceedingly unlikely China will surpass US GDP, if ever.

You are delusion. Biden already mention he is going to make USA into recession to fight inflation. You pull this data from your rear? You against Biden. Must be commie boy. CIA will come knock on your door.

Does it need to overtake US economy? I like Chinese wisdom. 2nd place is good enough. Operate in stealth and continue to prosper without triggering anyone. Yet, daddy America is still triggered LOL I wonder why.

Of cos it matter. Becos @F-22Raptor will jump into the well and killed himself becos USA is no more supapowa.

 

[etylo]

USA had absolutely NOTHING to do with the Opium Wars.

American Merchants and the China Opium Trade, 1800–1840 | Business History Review | Cambridge Core

American Merchants and the China Opium Trade, 1800–1840 - Volume 42 Issue 4

www.cambridge.org

5 Elite Families Who Made Their Fortunes in the Opium Trade

There's dirty money buried in the basement of some of America's wealthiest and most powerful families.

www.alternet.org

 

[VCheng]

American Merchants and the China Opium Trade, 1800–1840 | Business History Review | Cambridge Core

American Merchants and the China Opium Trade, 1800–1840 - Volume 42 Issue 4

www.cambridge.org

5 Elite Families Who Made Their Fortunes in the Opium Trade

There's dirty money buried in the basement of some of America's wealthiest and most powerful families.

www.alternet.org

LOL. Revisionism at its finest. That is all, and even then a few families with links to British companies. BFD. And USA still had nothing to do with any of the Opium Wars. Your anger belongs on the other side of the Atlantic, if that is possible for acts of centuries gone by.

 

[beijingwalker]

China makes excess Fentanyl as an instrument of war. Let there be no doubt about that.

Lol, I know US cheerleaders will blame US drug problems on China, and because ammunitions in China are also mainly supplied by China, US can also blame China for US gun violence.

 

[etylo]

LOL. Revisionism at its finest. That is all, and even then a few families with links to British companies. BFD. And USA still had nothing to do with any of the Opium Wars. Your anger belongs on the other side of the Atlantic, if that is possible for acts of centuries gone by.

its not just few nobody drug dealers, its five of the representatives of American opium dealers who made fortunes in the dealings. You have to blame the British for their revisionist history if thats the case in their presentation.

So, you think Chinese being the victims of the crimes cant talk or raise the subject because it happened a century ago or its unjustied anger on Chinese side ? What is your crap logic that the victims should shout up and the criminals reputations should be protected, are your ancestors one of the drug dealers too for you to have such view ? And, what the worst war criminals and drug dealers countries have done anything to retribute their wrongs that deserve the Chinese stop speaking about it ?

 

[VCheng]

its not just few nobody drug dealers, its five of the representatives of American opium dealers who made fortunes in the dealings. You have to blame the British for their revisionist history if thats the case in their presentation.

So, you think Chinese being the victims of the crimes cant talk or raise the subject because it happened a century ago or its unjustied anger on Chinese side ? What is your crap logic that the victims should shout up and the criminals reputations should be protected, are your ancestors one of the drug dealers too for you to have such view ? And, what the worst war criminals and drug dealers countries have done anything to retribute their wrongs that deserve the Chinese stop speaking about it ?

Let me just say this and stop: It is ALWAYS inappropriate to judge history of centuries past by modern day standards, for ANY country or civilization.

 

[etylo]

Let me just say this and stop: It is ALWAYS inappropriate to judge history of centuries past by modern day standards, for ANY country or civilization.

Just stop talking nonsense and stop making excuses to escape you peoples responsibilities to history. So, its inappropriate to talk and make jugement on the sins your ancestors did, LMAO, you just want to silence prople from talking what your ancestors did wrong, committed the henious crimes. Whats more self serving than this crap logic that we should not talk and judge the crime becos it happened century ago, then why do we need study world history for, and by the same logic we should not judge what Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan did their crimes in WW II becos they happened more than 70 years ago, long time ago too ? This is your crap logic just to cover up your ancestors crimes, you should go back to school to have your logic and morality iron out.

So, don't be a history revisionist yourself and don't try to lecture Asians on the morality of drug dealings as The British shamelessly trying to do now to Asians:

Singapore reads Branson the drug history

Opium trade was a common tool the colonialists adopted in their expansions in the 1700s and 1800s. That's why Singapore, just as China, strictly prohibits drug trafficking by imposing penalties as high as death.

global.chinadaily.com.cn

 

[GiantPanda]

Does it need to overtake US economy? I like Chinese wisdom. 2nd place is good enough. Operate in stealth and continue to prosper without triggering anyone. Yet, daddy America is still triggered LOL I wonder why.

The fact is China has already overtaken the US:

China Has the World's Largest Economy: Get Over It

It's the world's largest economy and has been since 2017.

cepr.net

The only reason people think otherwise is because Westerners prefer to use nominal GDP which is dependent on exchange rate in US dollars even though the IMF and the CIA use PPP to measure real gross domestic product:

Real GDP (purchasing power parity) Comparison - The World Factbook

www.cia.gov

But if you look pass exchange rates and financial mumble jumble and look at what China is buying and producing and what the US is buying and producing then you know exactly who is the larger economy.

Car Production by Country 2024

worldpopulationreview.com

Top 10 Car Producing Countries in the World (OICA 2021)*​

1. China — 26.08 million
2. United States — 9.17 million
3. Japan — 7.85 million

And this is how much steel China consumes compared to the US: 1000M tons to 100M tons:

How likely is it that China that produces more than 2.5 times more cars and consumes 10 times more steel than the US somehow ends up with a smaller gross domestic produce? lol

 

[firohot4321]

General public dont take important decisions.
Ruling elites does.

China (ruling elite) can't live without buying Western things.

Life expectancy of rich and powerful Chinese would decrease one decade without Western health products/services.

Then, how much important is GDP when you only manufacture cheap things?

Which specific healthcare services sonny
Getting bone marrow organs from poor white. Crackheads ??

If you check majority of world active pharmaceutical compounds made in china
USA imports big chunk of its pharma from china
Chinese elite got all the best in the world
And even their general public got much better and affordable healthcare then American public

What they can't get they copy

Or go to third countries like EU UAE to get it

But this is not even issue of contention between em

The main issue is chips technology

And even there China is closing gap

 

[BHAN85]

Which specific healthcare services sonny
Getting bone marrow organs from poor white. Crackheads ??

If you check majority of world active pharmaceutical compounds made in china
USA imports big chunk of its pharma from china
Chinese elite got all the best in the world
And even their general public got much better and affordable healthcare then American public

What they can't get they copy

Or go to third countries like EU UAE to get it

But this is not even issue of contention between em

The main issue is chips technology

And even there China is closing gap

Even in clothes that is easy to copy, Rich Chinese Elite choose Western brands.

So imagine in the rest that China can't copy.



The only opportunity for China to achieve a real powerful GDP is infect the West with Huawei core networks and steal all the Western know-how.

But without it, they can grow GDP, but they wont never be powerful, because ruling elites of all world, including the Chinese, will still wish luxury Western things.

 

[beijingwalker]

he only opportunity for China to achieve a real powerful GDP is infect the West with Huawei core networks and steal all the Western know-how.

But without it, they can grow GDP, but they wont never be powerful, because ruling elites of all world, including the Chinese, w

US depends on China, not the other way around, you keep saying "elites", are you one of them or you just talking through your hat? can you provide any data or facts on it?