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I don't understand why people get the idea that China can overtake the US or EU.
China has that middle-income trap and the local government debt problems to escape first.
There is no Twitter in China, as I recently confirmed with the co-founder of Twitter, Biz Stone. Facebook does not function, and the Internet and all online news is censored. Chinese citizens will increasingly face an asymmetric information gap as they struggle to compete with other large developing countries such as India, which allow the free flow of information.
The Republic of Korea comes to my mind.and which country doesnt have local government debt problem
Local governments defaulting on loans means Chinese banks incur massive losses and stop lending to businesses. Private businesses already resort to loan sharks charging 25~50% interest today.and how is that to trap China in to a 'mid-income' trap?
Mongolia is protected by Russia.I'm still surprised how North Korea and Mongolia are not Chinese provinces yet.
And ROK government has the one of the lowest debt load in the developed world.The government of South Korea itself looks like a local government to me.
The Republic of Korea comes to my mind.
Local governments defaulting on loans means Chinese banks incur massive losses and stop lending to businesses. Private businesses already resort to loan sharks charging 25~50% interest today.
As for North Korea, China risks the resumption of Korean War where it has to sacrifice half a million troops or more again. At least Chairman Mao had the decency to sacrifice his eldest son before asking Chinese families to sacrifice their sons; Xi Jinping doesn't have a son to sacrifice in the second war.
Unlike the last time, China has trillions to lose this time around.
Why are you laughing at my analysis.
Mongolia has culture that is very close to China's. In fact China has a province called inner Mongolia. Maybe Mongolians in Mongolia would like to be united with their families in China.
Easy solution: Mongolia merges with China. Problem solved!
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My analysis is valid.
Pakistan has culture that is very close to India's. In fact Pakistan used to be a part of India. Maybe some Pakistanis (a.k.a. "Muhajirs") in Pakistan would like to be united with their families in India.
Easy solution: Pakistan merges with India. Problem solved!
Maybe Chinese media doesn't tell its citizens about those ghost cities that were constructed with loans but nobody lives there.Local government will only default on loans if the property market goes sharply downward.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/14/b...loan-sharks-come-knocking.html?pagewanted=allAnyway, I doubt those taking money from loan sharks are genuine private businesses.
Who will then have to battle Futenma Marines and ROKMC troops who already took out the nukes. Thanks to NK's nukes, the war plan calls for an automatic invasion when anything resembling a civil war breaks out in NK to seize nukes and chemical weapons. This is similar to the US military threats against Pakistani nuke sites, except that the ROK and US military do drill this invasion every year with 50K troops participating.China is not going to send a million soldiers marching across the Yalu river just like that. There will be an 'internal power struggle' within NK . One of the factions will make a public request for China to move in and China will oblige in the name of securing weapons of mass destruction.
Because it's so stupid??Why are you laughing at my analysis.
That shows you know absolutely nothing about Mongolia. Mongolians aren't even as same race as the Chinese, who are of Southeast Asian origin.Mongolia has culture that is very close to China's.
Which is the land that China took from Mongolia, the land that will revert back to Mongolia upon the collapse of the china communist party.In fact China has a province called inner Mongolia.
Yes, Mongolians want their Mongolian brothers in Inner Mongolia to reunite with the motherland.Maybe Mongolians in Mongolia would like to be united with their families in China.
1. Mongolians want nothing to do with China.Easy solution: Mongolia merges with China. Problem solved!
And NK pays China back by distributing billion dollar worth of high quality drugs and supernotes. 4% of dollar bills circulating in China are NK supernotes, and unknown % of yuan bills in China are also NK supernotes.North Korea is basically a Chinese Protectorate.
Actually they are trying to flee "through" China to go to the ROK or the US, because they are automatically guaranteed a citizenship and asylum if they manage to get out of China to reach a foreign embassy in Russia, Thailand, and Vietnam. Why would NKers want to stay in China when they are guaranteed a citizenship in ROK or a green card in the US?Many North Koreans go to China to flee poverty and for opportunities.
Maybe Chinese media doesn't tell its citizens about those ghost cities that were constructed with loans but nobody lives there.
Who will then have to battle Futenma Marines and ROKMC troops who already took out the nukes. Thanks to NK's nukes, the war plan calls for an automatic invasion when anything resembling a civil war breaks out in NK to seize nukes and chemical weapons. This is similar to the US military threats against Pakistani nuke sites, except that the ROK and US military do drill this invasion every year.
The only way that China can avoid an all out war is to stay out of NK. Because the moment PLA decide to enter NK, they must battle hundreds of thousands of ROK and US troops already in NK and face air attack from 1000 allied airforce jets and bombers.
Okay, please consider the following as a measure of just how INVALID your analysis really is:
I would say your analysis is just plain WRONG.
Local government will only default on loans if the property market goes sharply downward. Large banks will suffer losses and the central government will most likely set an artificially low saving interests rate so banks can recover. This can be thought of as a saving tax to subsidize infrastructure and cheap housing. Not the perfect outcome, but hardly catastrophic.
Anyway, I doubt those taking money from loan sharks are genuine private businesses. They look more like private speculators to me. Anyone who think running a real businesses can make enough profits for a 25% -50% loan deserve to be feed to the sharks.
China is not going to send a million soldiers marching across the Yalu river just like that. There will be an 'internal power struggle' within NK . One of the factions will make a public request for China to move in and China will oblige in the name of securing weapons of mass destruction. I don't see the U.S having the stomach to get involved in something like this.