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@Martian2
Given America's beligerent stance on the SCS, would it better if China came out and told the world that they actualy possess enough thermonuclear weapons to annihilate the US if they dare to send troops to aid Japan, Phillipines or Taiwan? It appears China is very secretive about the size of its nukes.
Right now it appears the US does not believe China has enough nukes to destroy US land unlike Russia. That is why American is poking their nose in China's affairs.
What is your take?
You are asking one of the most important questions in modern military affairs. I have been intentionally staying away from this complex question. However, since you asked it, I will give you my best answer.
Firstly, I believe the United States has a very good classified estimate of China's nuclear forces (through spy satellites, electronic intercepts, spies, counting ICBMs as they leave the factory, etc.). That is why the U.S. government always refuses to officially comment on Chinese ICBM launches. The U.S. government knows what's going on, but won't tell the public.
Secondly, unless a person is an idiot, it should be obvious that China has a lot more than the 200-400 warheads that the Pentagon has been claiming since 1985 (which was 30 years ago).
A quick estimate shows the ridiculousness of the Pentagon's low-ball estimate.
China has at least three brigades of DF-5 missiles. Assuming all three brigades have been modernized, that's 360 thermonuclear warheads with a half-megaton on each warhead.
3 brigades DF-5B ICBM x 12 missiles per brigade x 10 MIRVs per missile = 360 thermonuclear warheads carried on DF-5B ICBMs
7 brigades DF-31A ICBM (since 2007 introduction and adding one brigade per year) x 12 missiles per brigade x 3 MIRVs = 252 thermonuclear warheads carried on DF-31A ICBMs (assuming NO RELOAD missile per TEL; if you assume ONE reload missile per TEL then you double the number of warheads to 504 thermonuclear warheads)
The first known/reported DF-41 ICBM launch was on July 24, 2012. It has been 17 months since the first known launch. Assuming a production rate of two DF-41 ICBMs per month (which roughly matches the 20 annual Long March rocket launches), China should have 34 DF-41 ICBMs.
34 DF-41 ICBMs x 10 MIRVs per missile = 340 thermonuclear warheads carried on DF-41 ICBMs
There are three important caveats. It is more effective to build one reload missile per TEL. This means the number of DF-41 ICBMs could be 68. Also, the military in every country is usually very well funded compared to the civilian sector. Thus, we would not be surprised at a DF-41 production rate that is double or triple the production of Long March rockets.
Finally, there is a huge uncertainty over the initial date of production of DF-41 ICBMs. I started my estimate on July 24, 2012. However, the earliest picture of the DF-41 ICBM is dated March 21, 2007. If China started production of DF-41 ICBMs years earlier then the Chinese DF-41 ICBM is considerably larger.
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Now, I will answer your question directly.
The best guess is that the United States is trying to force China to announce/confirm the massive size of the Chinese thermonuclear arsenal. The strategic goal of the United States is to use worldwide public pressure to force China into the strategic arms reduction negotiations and sign a treaty.
There is no way China will ever permit foreign inspectors to examine every Chinese nuclear facility and count the ICBMs. That's not going to happen.
Thus, we live in the strange limbo of today. The United States pretends China's massive thermonuclear arsenal doesn't exist and is at the level of 1985. China won't agree to foreign verification of the Chinese thermonuclear arsenal. China will not permit a foreigner to examine the secret 3,000-mile Underground Great Wall. This leaves China with leaks by its generals to wipe out the United States in a thermonuclear strike/retaliation.
Another important reason that China can't announce the real size of its thermonuclear arsenal is it would scare everyone around the world. This is a problem for China's business image. First and foremost, China is a business-oriented country and exports over $2 trillion of goods each year. Customers worldwide might be scared if they learn the true size of the Chinese thermonuclear arsenal.
In conclusion, China knows the United States is aware of China's real thermonuclear arsenal size. However, due to business considerations and to protect its secret facilities, China cannot reveal the size of its thermonuclear arsenal. Having the freedom to build as many warheads as it likes is in China's strategic interest and a good reason to stay out of arms reduction talks.
The islands in the East and South China Sea are small potatoes. They have historic and emotional interest to China, but they are not important. China is doing the right thing by staying secretive and protecting its strategic interests in a closely-guarded Chinese thermonuclear capability.
Thanks man. That was very informative. In that case, let's keep China's nuclear arsenal a secret.
However one thing I wasnt' clear of was allowing one of the underground nuclear tunnel as a tourist attaction. Wouldnt that give away some secret should foreign spies disguise as a tourist visit that site?
keep up the good fight.
what's the point of making more nukes? having x amount versus y amount doesn't matter. long as you have a few dozen you are pretty much untouchable.
only a insane person would actually use them.
There is a misconception by some people that claim their country have enough nukes to destroy the world 9x over, which is BS.
The asteroid impact that killed the dinosaurs was equal to over 1b atomic bombs dropped at H&N (combined 36 kt). That asteroid impact equal over 36 billion kt of TNT. You can take all the earth's nukes which is a fraction of the 36b kt, thus impossible to destroy the earth.
China should continue and build more thermonuclear long range weapons