China's 2021 GDP might exceed 17.5 trillion dollar

[ChineseTiger1986]

The GDP of Q1-Q3 for 2021 was 82.3131 trillion yuan, and the Q4 for 2021 would likely hit 32 trillion yuan.

With an annual exchange rate of 6.45, China's actual GDP might beat the forecast by 1 trillion dollar.

 

[beijingwalker]

中国国2021年全年GDP或将突破17.5万亿美元，而美国或将达23万亿美元，同时中国将在2028年左右成功赶上美国。
China's GDP in 2021 may exceed 17.5 trillion U.S. dollars, while the United States may reach 23 trillion U.S. dollars. China will successfully catch up with the United States around 2028.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

中国国2021年全年GDP或将突破17.5万亿美元，而美国或将达23万亿美元，同时中国将在2028年左右成功赶上美国。
China's GDP in 2021 may exceed 17.5 trillion U.S. dollars, while the United States may reach 23 trillion U.S. dollars. China will successfully catch up with the United States around 2028.

China's 2021 GDP will be more than the US 2014 GDP, but slightly less than the US 2015 GDP.

With a strong RMB policy, there is a chance for China's 2022 GDP to exceed 20 trillion dollar which will be roughly equal to the US 2018 GDP.

 

[shi12jun]

Calculated in U.S. dollars, the GDP of mainland China this year is estimated to be around 17.8 trillion U.S. dollars. Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan together exceed US$1 trillion

 

[letsrock]

If 17.5 were to be 20T in one year then growth rate must be around 15 percent . Assuming 6 percent real gdp growth and 2-3 percent inflation then you need currency to appreciate by 7-8 percent. Or reach at 6 yuan per usd. Right now its close to 6.4 (6.37). So it will need to go to 5.6 by 2022 year end to arrive at an average of 6.0.

 

[Titanium100]

Calculated in U.S. dollars, the GDP of mainland China this year is estimated to be around 17.8 trillion U.S. dollars. Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan together exceed US$1 trillion

Is that nominal or PPP?

 

[Shotgunner51]

Is that nominal or PPP?

Nominal

 

[Shotgunner51]

With a strong RMB policy

There isn't any strong RMB policy, in fact the CEFC has urged banks to limit speculative foreign-exchange trading after RMB climbed to a six-year high recently, a sign that Beijing has grown uncomfortable with the rapid ascent which is driven by strong current account surplus as well as capital inflow. The US Treasury on Dec 3 also announced that they will continue to keep China on "monitoring list" over currency practices, despite no accuse was made of manipulating RMB to gain a competitive advantage, yet.

Chinese banks told to limit speculative trading as yuan surges

The currency has reached a 6-year high and is the best performer in emerging markets this year.

www.scmp.com

US closely monitoring China, Switzerland currency policies

WASHINGTON: The US Treasury said Friday (Dec 3) it will keep a close eye on China's economic policies and actions to influence the value of its currency, along with those of Vietnam, Taiwan and Switzerland. While no country was accused of manipulating its currency to gain a competitive...

www.channelnewsasia.com

US keeps Japan, China on 'monitoring list' over currency practices - The Mainichi

WASHINGTON (Kyodo) -- The Treasury Department said Friday that Japan and China remain on a list of countries it monitors over potentially

mainichi.jp

 

[siegecrossbow]

The GDP of Q1-Q3 for 2021 was 82.3131 trillion yuan, and the Q4 for 2021 would likely hit 32 trillion yuan.

With an annual exchange rate of 6.45, China's actual GDP might beat the forecast by 1 trillion dollar.

The exchange rate game is not really important since there has been a large devaluation of USD. Hard metrics such as power generation and automobile sales is a better indicator.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

There isn't any strong RMB policy, in fact the CEFC has urged banks to limit speculative foreign-exchange trading after RMB climbed to a six-year high recently, a sign that Beijing has grown uncomfortable with the rapid ascent which is driven by strong current account surplus as well as capital inflow. The US Treasury on Dec 3 also announced that they will continue to keep China on "monitoring list" over currency practices, despite no accuse was made of manipulating RMB to gain a competitive advantage, yet.

Chinese banks told to limit speculative trading as yuan surges

The currency has reached a 6-year high and is the best performer in emerging markets this year.

www.scmp.com

US closely monitoring China, Switzerland currency policies

WASHINGTON: The US Treasury said Friday (Dec 3) it will keep a close eye on China's economic policies and actions to influence the value of its currency, along with those of Vietnam, Taiwan and Switzerland. While no country was accused of manipulating its currency to gain a competitive...

www.channelnewsasia.com

US keeps Japan, China on 'monitoring list' over currency practices - The Mainichi

WASHINGTON (Kyodo) -- The Treasury Department said Friday that Japan and China remain on a list of countries it monitors over potentially

mainichi.jp

The US is now printing the USD like no tomorrow.

Without a strong RMB, China would get engulfed by their inflation.

Now China can strongly control the entire supply chain, so it won't need to implement any weak RMB policy like the pre-pandemic era.

 

[Shotgunner51]

The US is now printing the USD like no tomorrow.

Without a strong RMB, China would get engulfed by their inflation.

Now China can strongly control the entire supply chain,

Yes, these are realities

so it won't need to implement any weak RMB policy like the pre-pandemic era.

Can't conclude it that way. Fundamentals like strong current account surplus & capital inflow will only drive up RMB, not drive down. China policymakers must prevent RMB from appreciating too fast which may induce excessive volatility/speculation as well as other negative impact on normal trade, not to mention China still hold massive amount of USD-denominated assets. Hard landing of dollar is unfavorable if not disastrous to Chinese national interests. RMB neither can go too fast nor too slow, pacing is critical.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Yes, these are realities

Can't conclude it that way. Fundamentals like strong current account surplus & capital inflow will only drive up RMB, not drive down. China policymakers must prevent RMB from appreciating too fast which may induce excessive volatility/speculation as well as other negative impact on normal trade, not to mention China still hold massive amount of USD-denominated assets. Hard landing of dollar is unfavorable if not disastrous to Chinese national interests. RMB neither can go too fast nor too slow, pacing is critical.

If China can firmly control the entire supply chain with the successful zero covid strategy, the RMB will remain rock solid.

The US has to financially attack other currencies to keep the USD in shape.

A weak USD will worsen the current inflation woe that is currently impeding Biden's presidency.

However, a strong USD is simply killing off the remaining manufacturing base of the US.

This predicament is simply driving the US nut.

 

[Paul2]

Yes, these are realities

Can't conclude it that way. Fundamentals like strong current account surplus & capital inflow will only drive up RMB, not drive down. China policymakers must prevent RMB from appreciating too fast which may induce excessive volatility/speculation as well as other negative impact on normal trade, not to mention China still hold massive amount of USD-denominated assets. Hard landing of dollar is unfavorable if not disastrous to Chinese national interests. RMB neither can go too fast nor too slow, pacing is critical.

Capital is chicken running through unconventional channels at a record pace. But the huge counterflow is countering it for now.

 

[TigerOfMysore]

Nominal GDP is not as good a measure as PPP adjusted GDP. PPP adjusted GDP is a truer measure.

 

[chengdusudise]

Is that nominal or PPP?

we Chinese never talk about PPP

Nominal GDP is not as good a measure as PPP adjusted GDP. PPP adjusted GDP is a truer measure.

France will not agree you buy their Rafael with PPP dollars