China watches nervously as Taiwan election nears

[Chinese-Dragon]

I would not characterize it as a 'betrayal' because the word impute the action of abandonment in the ultimate degree. That did not happened. The change of recognition as to who represent China in the UN and by extension on the world stage was inevitable. Major components of sovereignty are physical possession and monopoly of authority over said physical possession. Taiwan failed in both when it comes to mainland China. The US continued to support Taiwan politically and militarily since that change so it would be extreme to call it a 'betrayal'.

Well back then, there was the common threat of the Soviet Union to worry about.

But they are long gone. So, do you think America should now switch recognition back to democratic Taiwan, and break ties with the PRC?

 

[gambit]

But they are long gone. So, do you think America should now switch recognition back to democratic Taiwan, and break ties with the PRC?

No. The PRC is too established on mainland China. But if Taiwan declare independence, the US should defend Taiwan.

 

[CardSharp]

Taiwan as we currently know today came from the end of WW II where Chinese Nationalists lost to the communists and fled to the island. The US came to Taiwan's support out of the policy of communist containment. The result is an armed Taiwan that while can be militarily conquered the cost for China will be high, even if the Taiwanese is the only one fighting.

Pretty much right. To conquer Taiwan militarily would mean to be destroy the country and engender generations of bitterness. But there is little need for violence as things are moving towards a peaceful unification under a one country two systems approach.

Of course democratic reform in the PRC, which I believe will happen, can make things a lot simpler, by making the current ROC government in a coequal provincial government.

I would not characterize it as a 'betrayal' because the word impute the action of abandonment in the ultimate degree. That did not happened. The change of recognition as to who represent China in the UN and by extension on the world stage was inevitable. Major components of sovereignty are physical possession and monopoly of authority over said physical possession. Taiwan failed in both when it comes to mainland China. The US continued to support Taiwan politically and militarily since that change so it would be extreme to call it a 'betrayal'.

Agree, Kennedy's go ahead for the ARVN generals to assassinate Diem would be a 'betrayal', this is more a sidelining of the ROC for convenience.

 

[gambit]

Pretty much right. To conquer Taiwan militarily would mean to be destroy the country and engender generations of bitterness. But there is little need for violence as things are moving towards a peaceful unification under a one country two systems approach.

Of course democratic reform in the PRC, which I believe will happen, can make things a lot simpler, by making the current ROC government in a coequal provincial government.

To what degree? If there is sufficient reform to the PRC, three things could happen:

- Taiwan declare independence and the PRC concede.

- The PRC and Taiwan become one China.

- The PRC regress and there is war. Once declaration of independence is public, there is no turning back for Taiwan.

 

[CardSharp]

- The PRC regress and there is war. Once declaration of independence is public, there is no turning back for Taiwan.

Reform usually implies liberalization.

 

[gambit]

Reform usually implies liberalization.

We have seen enough 'reforms' to the other direction so now it is appropriate to look at the word with a bit of cynicism.

 

[CardSharp]

We have seen enough 'reforms' to the other direction so now it is appropriate to look at the word with a bit of cynicism.

How about just using the word as I meant it. I wasn't trying to give cover to a regressive move, when I said democratic reforms, I meant elections and representative democracy.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

We have seen enough 'reforms' to the other direction so now it is appropriate to look at the word with a bit of cynicism.

Reforms in China are necessary, but they are not designed to counter the cynicism of American citizens.

They are meant for us.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Now it seems to be over for DPP as they just chose the wrong candidate.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Unless Mrs.Tsai can just deliberately shoot herself like the former president Chen Shuibian did, so she may have the chance to get some votes from the green sympathizers.

 

[JayAtl]

I have read that regardless of whom is elected- China is deeply entrenched with spies within the high ranks of the taiwan politico. true?

also this has to be a concern for the US , when delaing and giving out these military goodies.

BBC News - Taiwan general Lo Hsien-che held on China spy charges

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

I have read that regardless of whom is elected- China is deeply entrenched with spies within the high ranks of the taiwan politico. true?

This is our problem, regardless you know it or not, it doesn't make any change when it comes to the outcome of the coming presidential election.

 

[gambit]

How about just using the word as I meant it. I wasn't trying to give cover to a regressive move, when I said democratic reforms, I meant elections and representative democracy.

Fine. Assume that the PRC reformed to be a functional democracy, if Taiwan persist in pursuing the independence route, would the PRC concede? Do not try to distract by turning the question onto the American states. None of them have been at war against the federal government since 1865 while Taiwan has been effectively independent in fact if not in name since the end of WW II. Should the PRC object? Yes, I have no problems advocating a truly 'one China'. But if Taiwan persists, then should the PRC go to war? Remember, two major components of sovereignty are possession and monopoly of authority. If the Taiwanese persists in pursuing the independence route, that mean the PRC does not have possession and monopoly of authority over the island. So either let the Taiwanese go or commit to a war to possess and assert authority over the island.