China Unlikely to Confront United States Military Intervention in PakistaN

[Rafi]

Did u even know tht we had a nuke untill we blew up the chagai moutain? did u even know we had A-100s till some guy took a pic frm some ex-, did u even knew we had a tactical nuke MLRS till we showed it on national tv,did u even know tht we were woring on an MRV till head of NESCOM mistakenly talked abt it on TV........ There r lots of thing kept in secret by the establishment.

We were effectively a nuclear power in the mid eighties when we conducted our first cold test.
Thanks for reminding us PN bro.

 

[Manticore]

we've got nukes saved safely for roughly 3 decades now -- i dont think the scientists are sitting idle for the past 3 decades , they would be enhancing the old tech and venturing into more ''interesting'' programmes

 

[Rafi]

we've got nukes saved safely for roughly 3 decades now -- i dont think the scientists are sitting idle for the past 3 decades , they would be enhancing the old tech and venturing into more ''interesting'' programmes

Exactly right - and we have had the entire cycle for Pu as well including heavy water facilities, reactors, reprocessing plants, tritium plants, and we have a good sized natural Uranium to be mined. So all in all our programme is in good health.

 

[T-Rex]

Does it mean, China does not need to intervene in case ucle sam jumps the gun on Pakistan?

 

[Tshering22]

Why would Pakistan care about the Arabs if we are at war with the US and under threat of being destroyed?

The 'Samson Option' by Israel in fact fits perfectly into a potential Pakistani deterrent against any war imposed on Pakistan by NATO - such a war would not stay limited to Pakistan, and Pakistan would try and ensure the world pays a very, very high price in terms of economic damage (oil infrastructure, devestated regional Gulf, Israeli, Indian economies), and therefore try and ensure that the world attempts to influence the US to not impose war on Pakistan to begin with.

How high would the price of oil skyrocket if the Israelis launch nukes at the Gulf States (or even if there is a threat of that) and Pakistan destroys/threatens to destroy a significant chunk of the Gulf/Iranian/CAR Oil and Gas production and transport infrastructure?

So basically, you'd go to the extent of risking even Saudi Arabia (vis a vis Mecca) for nukes? Are you serious? Now come on, it is easy for Israel not to take it out when they know that they won't exist, but would it be easy for you to ignore the same? I don't think so. Please remember that the oil threat would negatively affect your own war machinery as well. It won't affect USA because 90% of its supplies come from Canada and South America. It will affect everyone in the region as a result of which you will incur more enemies, who were previously not.

If you are thinking that the Americans are going to come with their guns blazing into Pakistan, you're wrong. Infact you are so wrong about their entrance itself. They've already entered in other ways which are far more destructive than a conventional military strike.

because of big daddy USA!!,,,,, what isaid is basically that a war now between US and pakistaan could vvery well result in a world war.

Firstly, not just because of US but because Israel is very heavily nuclear armed. And the US war has already started. There are more than one ways of starting a war that US knows very well. They will never enter your country with tanks and jets directly as they did in Iraq and Afghanistan. In fact, you're still predicting their entry while they've already entered deep without even you guys knowing.

 

[Tshering22]

Doubtful that that would happen. Israel has nothing to gain by this. No Arab state would stand by Pakistan in any case, least of all in a warlike situation. The closest that would come would be KSA, even then they would offer to mediate or whatnot.

You don't get the context, Malay. The reason why Israel would do that was due to an avowed policy of NEVER AGAIN that any country affiliated with any other through any significant means (religion, culture, military alliance etc) that invades and tries to destroy Israel shall suffer the Samson option. This means that Arabs don't have to participate to incur the nukes of Israel on them as well. For example, in case they are attacked by an Islamic country having deep strategic ties including military ties with Islamic nations around, whether Arab or not, will incur Israeli nukes, as Israel has nothing to lose when it already has been selected as a target of complete annihilation. This was taken in view based on military-strategic-cultural etc close relations of countries that have a joint bid in attempt to destroy Israel like in those times there were Axis and Allies.

Now, when i say 'take out' the nukes, most people would assume a spec ops kind of thing - all razzle and dazzle. But they could go for a variety of options, they could incite rebellion in Pakistan, have one general take over, or have a politician take over and assert authority over the military to an economic meltdown with money comming in exchange for things. You have to know that US it the numero uno player in Pakistan. Or it could be something much more subtle that i cant think of. But the point remains that were the US to decide on waging war, they would only do it once they take the nukes out of use.

Hit the nail on the right spot. That's what I am trying to explain everyone here. US knows more than one ways to start a war. And judging by the scenario here, I guess it has already started the war long back.

 

[muse]

These kinds of articles and threads seem so, desperate - While we are exposed to a wide variety of Indian opinion, I must say that what we are exposed to at Defense.pk is rather sorry - this paranoia, this almost rabid desperation about Pakistan and China seems to have unhinged a section of opinion, at least going by the kinds of threads some Indian posters have found compelling.

I mean consider the depth of problem:

The crucial question to be considered is that in such an eventuality whether China would step in militarily in favor of Pakistan to confront the United States, something which the Pakistan Army would ardently hope for.

Nowhere in the piece is there an evidence that China seek to do this or that the Pakistan Armed Forces would welcome such an eventuality -- and Will the US really want to make their 100K troops in Afghanistan a target?, because they could then resupply these from ----? And if it could what has prevented them from opting for this for the last ten years? The Russians no doubt will welcome a war between the US and Pakistan, it will be a Hollywood, sorry, made in Bollywood kind of irony??

And what might happen to India and Billions of dollars invested there - for a clue examine what happened to US investment when the US pulled out it's personnel during the border showdown - these points alone diminish the credibility of the piece above.

 

[unicorn]

Dr. Subhash Kapila
Writer of this article

Dr Subhash Kapila is a graduate of the Royal British Army Staff College, with a Masters in Defence Science (Madras University) and a PhD in Strategic Studies (Allahabad University) Combines a rich experience of Army (Brigadier) and diplomatic assignments in major countries. He writes extensively on foreign policy issues and strategic affairs for think-tanks and professional journals. He has participated in many national seminars and interviews by CNN, BBC etc. He is also the author of a book "India's Defence Policies and Strategic Thought: A Comparative Analysis".

 

[footmarks]

All the guys here predicting world war III & total destruction, please let me know atleast a month beforehand, so that I can live my remaining life to the fullest before getting evaporated.