Domestic kudos for Obama, but foreign efforts trickier
Published: 2015-1-23
Illustration: Liu Rui/GT
US President Barack Obama made his penultimate State of the Union speech on Tuesday night. Facing a GOP-occupied Congress and counting his remaining two years in the Oval Office, Obama has shown unexpected assertiveness in both internal and external affairs, asserting his desire to "turn the page." The question is, will his blueprint for the rest of his tenure be simply a gesture or able to take real effects?
In retrospect, Obama's biggest source of pride in the past six years might be his efforts to put the US economy back on track and drag it out of the mire it was in in 2008. The US unemployment rate has dropped to 5.6 percent in 2014 from 9.3 percent when he took office. His efforts, his Robin Hood-style package of plans, such as raising taxes on wealthy US investments and financial institutions, implementing comprehensive healthcare system reform, and easing immigration restrictions, have won him favor from the middle class and ordinary people. That is probably why his approval rate has returned to over 50 percent lately.
Obama knows his advantages, and he keeps using economy-related advances to endorse his performance in the past years. In his speech, he has highlighted important topics, and even come up with some new catchy slogans such like "middle class economics." In short, Obama will continue on the path he has been on for six years.
Although he is believed to have entered the "lame duck" period much earlier along with the Democrats losing both Houses in last year's midterm elections, it is not the case that Obama can do nothing real before the 2016 presidential elections.
As for internal affairs, especially economic and social issues, Congress will think twice before they try to discourage the president's will, which to some extent is in tune with voters' desires. As for external affairs, Obama has the upper hand due to the US' recent rapprochement with Cuba, and his insistence on coming to terms with Iran over nuclear issues without further sanctions has put him on a moral high ground. That is why in order to play the last tune well, Obama will be more engaged in his undertakings regardless of Congress' constraints, though by wielding the veto pen.
Fruits could be borne from Obama's endeavors in domestic affairs, but some of his attempts to protect US interests overseas are probably not going to be smart moves. In his speech, he mentioned China three times, describing it as a competitive challenger who is eager to "write the rules for the world's fastest growing region."
Although the "pivot to Asia" was not mentioned in his speech, it doesn't mean Washington will reduce US influence in the region.
It could be assumed that Obama's focus on the region in the next two years will aim to promote US-led trade deals with Asia in a bid to "level the playing field," where China has been regarded by the US as a rule-maker.
Obama's words have demonstrated that the US has recognized the fact that China is more like a rival on an equal footing than a chaser still falling behind. In 2014, China became the second country whose GDP had surpassed $1 trillion. The Trans-Pacific Partnership will be Obama's flagship policy, with which he wants the US to sustain its competitive advantage in the region and counterbalance China's growing economic clout. But Obama gives too much emphasis to the competitiveness of rule-making and ignores the potential cooperativeness involved.
Although it exceeded $500 billion in 2013, bilateral trade between China and the US still lacks effective channels of communication, which means there are no effective rules which are agreeable to both sides. Problems involving trade protectionism, intellectual property rights and the yuan's exchange rate keep haunting both countries. If the US' resolution is confined in extruding China's presence in the rule-making process, its unilaterally beneficial trade system will arouse more uncertainties.
Obama could do better in the following two years in expanding the US interests. But the first thing he has to do is to learn how to cooperate and compromise. He doesn't have to be a wheeler-dealer.
The article was compiled by Global Times reporter Liu Zhun based on an interview with Sun Zhe, director of the Center for US-China Relations at Tsinghua University. liuzhun@globaltimes.com.cn
