China should ‘worry’ about Taiwan 2027 timeline, J-20 is just ‘OK’ fighter and “isn’t anything to lose sleep over”: US PACAF chief

[Vapnope]

Chinese will unify Taiwan peacefully by 2027. Like it or not but they will do it.

 

[Genghis khan1]

lol, it's like saying "if Russia can achieve air Superiority in Ukraine" then there are nothing flowing in and out and Ukraine would be done deal.

Taiwan is an Island, it's hard to completely cut off Sea Line of Communication. Bear in mind the Territorial Sea area of Taiwan (sea border extended out 12 nautical mile) is roughly 37,000 sq kilometers. Which mean a complete blockade would mean if we put the entire Chinese Navy on it and and each of the 450 ship Navy (From tug boat to Aircraft Carrier) would have to cover toughly 100 Sq kilometer to be able to completely block it off, and then that's before Taiwan Anti-Ship missile come into play. And that's also assume US will not intervene with their own Navy...

Chinese cannot sit outside Taiwanese port like Russian did to Odessa because Taiwan is a peer enemy with capable missile, and if Ukraine manage to sink 7 ships from Black Sea Fleet, you can imagine what kind of disaster waiting for the Chinese if they sit on Taiwanese port like the Russian did,.

US will not engage Chinese navy. US wasn’t able to stop weapon supply to Taliban despite total air superiority and troop on the ground. How do you expect Russians to achieve that in much larger country and from air.

Unlike land, Ocean is open and featureless. There are no cover and concealment. Naval surveillance aircraft can detect moving object 500 km away. Taiwan is indefensible and US is well aware of this fact.

 

[jhungary]

US will not engage Chinese navy. US wasn’t able to stop weapon supply to Taliban despite total air superiority and troop on the ground. How do you expect Russians to achieve that in much larger country and from air.

Unlike land, Ocean is open and featureless. There are no cover and concealment. Naval surveillance aircraft can detect moving object 500 km away. Taiwan is indefensible and US is well aware of this fact.

All I can say is, you probably need to read up on how Japan hides their 4 carriers task force in the ocean during WW2.

I mean, you can believe what you want to believe, but as a person who actually did my time with surveillance in Air, Land and Sea, I can tell you, No......it's not as easy as you claim......

 

[nahtanbob]

I would imagine a massive bombing (mostly through missiles and artillery) campaign to knock out most if not all of Taiwan's military and civilian infrastructure, followed by equally massive para drops coupled with WWII shore landings consisting of hundreds or ships and comprising of hundreds of thousands of men with close air support ought to do the trick. Would have to use the Powell doctrine instead of half-assed Putin one.

massing of troops in such concentrations would be picked by spy satellites. the element of surprise is zero

 

[etylo]

China accepted Taiwan as a pygmy neighbor until uncle SAM started to stir shit in the region. Just like Russia had no problems with Ukraine until the US meddled there.
Even a blind can tell in all aspects if a war happens Taiwan is a clear loser in front of China. Ukraine is suffering because you took Russia weak, now you are taking China weak. Please don't make the people of Taiwan suffer.

Evil US doesnt care if taiwan got destroyed in a war as long as it can be used to weaken and vilify China around the world. The real problem is taiwanese like ukrainians are too stupid willing to be used by americans as tools against their big and powerful neighbours. Their fate are preordained.

 

[SecularNationalist]

in event of war the physical connections can be severed

Ok General Arm Chair

 

[nahtanbob]

Ok General Arm Chair

it is hard to penetrate something that you do not have a physical connection to

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2012/12/01/how-easy-is-it-to-shut-off-a-countrys-internet/

 

[gambit]

Unlike land, Ocean is open and featureless. There are no cover and concealment. Naval surveillance aircraft can detect moving object 500 km away. Taiwan is indefensible and US is well aware of this fact.

Imagine this is a slice of the ocean:
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Each '+' equals to 100 km. If you are capable of 'seeing' 500 km, how long would it take you sift thru that entire line?

Each camera have a limited view. Each radar sweep have a limited scan. Each method have a limited resolution based upon the technology.

How to Make an Aircraft Carrier Vanish

WASHINGTON (AP) _ U.S. Navy aircraft carriers, despite their incredible size, are becoming adept at a form of magic. Utilizing weather, speed, advanced logistical planning and high-tech tomfoolery, several carriers in recent months have managed to vanish from antagonist's eyes into the...

apnews.com

And just over a month ago, a much lengthier case of a ″missing″ carrier occurred during an exercise named RIMPAC 86. The USS Ranger, although the target of an intense search that included satellite reconnaissance, escaped detection for two weeks while sailing across the Pacific.​

​

The performance was considered all the more remarkable by an Australian admiral who monitored the exercise because the carrier’s planes were flying sorties throughout the period, staging mock attacks against surface ships, submarines and land targets.​

That was in 1986. The Ranger executed Emission Control (EMCON) protocol Alpha, meaning non. The carrier conducted air operations using hand signals. For two weeks, the Ranger's air wing conducted 'attacks' on Hawai'i while the defenders searched for her. Because the Ranger's fighters made it to Hawai'i, the defenders have a good idea of how far away is the ship, and yet for two weeks, they could not find her. See the highlighted -- satellite surveillance. That mean whatever satellite snapshot was taken, for the sake of the exercise, that satellite imagery was prioritized for processing to find the carrier. And yet for two weeks, the Ranger 'attacked' Hawai'i.

 

[huanghong]

lol, it's like saying "if Russia can achieve air Superiority in Ukraine" then there are nothing flowing in and out and Ukraine would be done deal.

Taiwan is an Island, it's hard to completely cut off Sea Line of Communication. Bear in mind the Territorial Sea area of Taiwan (sea border extended out 12 nautical mile) is roughly 37,000 sq kilometers. Which mean a complete blockade would mean if we put the entire Chinese Navy on it and and each of the 450 ship Navy (From tug boat to Aircraft Carrier) would have to cover toughly 100 Sq kilometer to be able to completely block it off, and then that's before Taiwan Anti-Ship missile come into play. And that's also assume US will not intervene with their own Navy...

Chinese cannot sit outside Taiwanese port like Russian did to Odessa because Taiwan is a peer enemy with capable missile, and if Ukraine manage to sink 7 ships from Black Sea Fleet, you can imagine what kind of disaster waiting for the Chinese if they sit on Taiwanese port like the Russian did,.

Why do warships need to sit outside Taiwanese port?
All ports on Taiwan's west coast are under radar on the other side, and anti-ship missiles have enough range to destroy any ship approaching a Taiwanese port.
Ports on the east coast of Taiwan can be handed over to submarines and mines.

 

[jhungary]

Why do warships need to sit outside Taiwanese port?
All ports on Taiwan's west coast are under radar on the other side, and anti-ship missiles have enough range to destroy any ship approaching a Taiwanese port.
Ports on the east coast of Taiwan can be handed over to submarines and mines.

That's because Radar won't work on the other side of Taiwan.

I don't know why people don't know the fact that this earth is NOT FLAT. If you are talking about an ocean around 100 miles from you, using the degree of curvature formula

D = 36,000 / 2πR

Using R = 100 mile = 520,000 ft

That mean a ship 100 miles from your radar would appear around 1 mile BELOW your radar. Which mean your radar CANNOT pick up that ship because it would not be in the Radar LOS. Unless the ship is 1 mile tall over the waterline (that's 1615 meters tall by the way) , your radar won't be able to pick that up.

Let alone your ground radar in China have to beam thru everything over every building in Taiwan, then good luck try to pick up a ping on the incoming ship in Taiwan., well, I should say good luck looking at pings because there would be thousand, if not tens of thousands of ping of just about anything on the island.

And the closest point between China and Taiwan East Coast is 235 miles, you do the maths.

And ALL THAT IS BEFORE the fact that you are looking at a ping on your radar screen, not a ship, it could be anything reflective, it could be natural, or it could be men made to trick your radar.

 

[huanghong]

That's because Radar won't work on the other side of Taiwan.

I don't know why people don't know the fact that this earth is NOT FLAT. If you are talking about an ocean around 100 miles from you, using the degree of curvature formula

D = 36,000 / 2πR

Using R = 100 mile = 520,000 ft

That mean a ship 100 miles from your radar would appear around 1 mile BELOW your radar. Which mean your radar CANNOT pick up that ship because it would not be in the Radar LOS. Unless the ship is 1 mile tall over the waterline (that's 1615 meters tall by the way) , your radar won't be able to pick that up.

Let alone your ground radar in China have to beam thru everything over every building in Taiwan, then good luck try to pick up a ping on the incoming ship in Taiwan., well, I should say good luck looking at pings because there would be thousand, if not tens of thousands of ping of just about anything on the island.

And the closest point between China and Taiwan East Coast is 235 miles, you do the maths.

And ALL THAT IS BEFORE the fact that you are looking at a ping on your radar screen, not a ship, it could be anything reflective, it could be natural, or it could be men made to trick your radar.

Strange, I never said that ground-based radar needs to look at targets on the east coast?
You don't seem to see that I specifically divide the target into East Coast and West Coast?
For the target attack on the east coast, mines and submarines lurking in the channel should be completed, and the surveillance target should be derived from the early warning aircraft and long endurance drones in the air.
I don't know if you are a person who has experience in maritime transportation. You can ask the seafarers that there are not many ports that can be berthed by maritime transportation.

 

[jhungary]

Strange, I never said that ground-based radar needs to look at targets on the east coast?
You don't seem to see that I specifically divide the target into East Coast and West Coast?
For the target attack on the east coast, mines and submarines lurking in the channel should be completed, and the surveillance target should be derived from the early warning aircraft in the air.
I don't know if you are a person who has experience in maritime transportation. You can ask the seafarers that there are not many ports that can be berthed by maritime transportation.

I am just explaining to you it won't work in East Coast Port, if it doesn't work in East Coast Port, then you cannot enforce a complete blockade.

And lol, you probably watched too much TV. MIne and Submarine won't work on a Peer Navy.

First of all, Mine have little to no offensive capability, mine are traditionally a defensive weapon, because you need to lay it, and there are only two place you can lay mine to gain offensive capability, ie to deny the use of the port, the entrance to the harbor and the approach to the shipping lane. Problem is Taiwan East coast are facing the entirety of the Pacific Ocean, which mean there are no approach, because there is no dedicated shipping lane, well, it's an open ocean.

So the only way China can lay mine is to mine the entrant to the Harbor, sure, I am pretty sure Taiwan will let you do it without challenging you. It mean your mine layer have to come up to the shore and just outside their harbor to lay mine to denied the use of their harbor, so either you do it alone, or you do it with escort, you are most likely going to be greeted by Surface to Ship Missile or Air-Launched Anti-ship Missile, and your escort cannot move when your mine layer is laying mine, which make them and your mine layer a pretty target.

On top of that, Taiwan can demine, either sending in demining ship or engineer to physically demine an area, which mean unless you have eyes and ears on those mines, it's pointless. Even if you can lay them, they can demine them if you are not there on the watch 24/7.

Second, how do you deploy your loitering submarine? And how do they detect surface target? Submarine don't have radar, well, they do, but then they would have to surface, if you deploy radar, your Submarine will have to surface and wait for the ship that may or may not come their way, depends on how far you post your sub, too close and Taiwan can detect a surfaced Sub and attack them with ASM, too far it is pointless on an open ocean.

Okay, what about loitering submerge? Sure, then how do you know there are ship incoming? Sub cannot detect ship by itself naturally, and being underwater, Radar don't work, periscope can't make much different because you can only scan a very small area. The only way your sub can detect incoming target is to go active sonar, or actively ping your target, but then when you are submerged, how do you know ship pass by to turn on the active sonar? The answer is, you don't, which mean you either need to depend on passive sonar (like launching sonar buoy) or you literally have to turn on active sonar 24/7 to monitor traffic, Taiwan can attack those sonar Buoy because it would be on the surface, and if you turn on your active sonar 24/7, you literally give away your position, which mean you can be attacked by Taiwanese sub, ship and MPA.

On top of that, how are you going to execute a blockade? In most case, you broad the ship and turn it around, you can't do that with Mine and Sub. And you can't sink them, because UNLCOS dictate that ship in high sea is the sovereign of the flag they fly, sure, you can sink civilian freighter that fly the flag of Liberia or Panama, but if US is actively supporting Taiwan when China attack or blocking them, the US will use its own flagged Merchant Navy ship, attacking those ship, according to the law of the sea, is the same as attacking US.

Sure, US may or may not get involve directly if China attack Taiwan, but the moment you attack US traffic, and US flagged ship and US sailor started to go down, that's another story, that's why at the beginning of the Battle of the Atlantic, Hitler have to be mindful of what they can sink or risk dragging US into the war, or do you think US will let you kill American sailor and sink US flagged ship without consequence? This is most likely draw US into the war if they had not been by this stage already. Then you will have to ask, can PLA win an open ocean fight with the might of USN?

Just so you know, my entire Family are full of seafarer, which make my decision for going into the Army extra tragic, my dad was in the Navy for 16 years, my brother was a US Marine Officer, 1 of my cousins was actually a submariner, and one of my other cousins is a serving CPO with the US Coast Guard. So, what's your experience in sea faring??

 

[huanghong]

I am just explaining to you it won't work in East Coast Port, if it doesn't work in East Coast Port, then you cannot enforce a complete blockade.

And lol, you probably watched too much TV. MIne and Submarine won't work on a Peer Navy.

First of all, Mine have little to no offensive capability, mine are traditionally a defensive weapon, because you need to lay it, and there are only two place you can lay mine to gain offensive capability, ie to deny the use of the port, the entrance to the harbor and the approach to the shipping lane. Problem is Taiwan East coast are facing the entirety of the Pacific Ocean, which mean there are no approach, because there is no dedicated shipping lane, well, it's an open ocean.

So the only way China can lay mine is to mine the entrant to the Harbor, sure, I am pretty sure Taiwan will let you do it without challenging you. It mean your mine layer have to come up to the shore and just outside their harbor to lay mine to denied the use of their harbor, so either you do it alone, or you do it with escort, you are most likely going to be greeted by Surface to Ship Missile or Air-Launched Anti-ship Missile, and your escort cannot move when your mine layer is laying mine, which make them and your mine layer a pretty target.

On top of that, Taiwan can demine, either sending in demining ship or engineer to physically demine an area, which mean unless you have eyes and ears on those mines, it's pointless. Even if you can lay them, they can demine them if you are not there on the watch 24/7.

Second, how do you deploy your loitering submarine? And how do they detect surface target? Submarine don't have radar, well, they do, but then they would have to surface, if you deploy radar, your Submarine will have to surface and wait for the ship that may or may not come their way, depends on how far you post your sub, too close and Taiwan can detect a surfaced Sub and attack them with ASM, too far it is pointless on an open ocean.

Okay, what about loitering submerge? Sure, then how do you know there are ship incoming? Sub cannot detect ship by itself naturally, and being underwater, Radar don't work, periscope can't make much different because you can only scan a very small area. The only way your sub can detect incoming target is to go active sonar, or actively ping your target, but then when you are submerged, how do you know ship pass by to turn on the active sonar? The answer is, you don't, which mean you either need to depend on passive sonar (like launching sonar buoy) or you literally have to turn on active sonar 24/7 to monitor traffic, Taiwan can attack those sonar Buoy because it would be on the surface, and if you turn on your active sonar 24/7, you literally give away your position, which mean you can be attacked by Taiwanese sub, ship and MPA.

On top of that, how are you going to execute a blockade? In most case, you broad the ship and turn it around, you can't do that with Mine and Sub. And you can't sink them, because UNLCOS dictate that ship in high sea is the sovereign of the flag they fly, sure, you can sink civilian freighter that fly the flag of Liberia or Panama, but if US is actively supporting Taiwan when China attack or blocking them, the US will use its own flagged Merchant Navy ship, attacking those ship, according to the law of the sea, is the same as attacking US.

Sure, US may or may not get involve directly if China attack Taiwan, but the moment you attack US traffic, and US flagged ship and US sailor started to go down, that's another story, that's why at the beginning of the Battle of the Atlantic, Hitler have to be mindful of what they can sink or risk dragging US into the war, or do you think US will let you kill American sailor and sink US flagged ship without consequence? This is most likely draw US into the war if they had not been by this stage already. Then you will have to ask, can PLA win an open ocean fight with the might of USN?

Just so you know, my entire Family are full of seafarer, which make my decision for going into the Army extra tragic, my dad was in the Navy for 16 years, my brother was a US Marine Officer, 1 of my cousins was actually a submariner, and one of my other cousins is a serving CPO with the US Coast Guard. So, what's your experience in sea faring??

You seem to have forgotten about the establishment of a "Maritime Exclusion Zone" 200 miles (322 kilometers) around the Malvinas Islands?
You don't seem to know that due to geographical conditions, there are few ports on the east coast of Taiwan?
A vast coastline doesn't mean you have a ton of targets to dock.
And it's hard to fathom how someone with extensive family navy experience would think that minelaying cannot be carried out by submarines and aircraft, but must be carried out blatantly with escort? The Americans themselves officially had planes and submarines to mine Taiwan on a large scale during World War II

Even stranger, when you mention Taiwan's minesweepers, you seem to think that minelaying are threatened by missiles, and minesweepers with more difficult tasks are not? Early warning and long-endurance drones seem to have suddenly lost their ability to monitor the port? ?

 

[jhungary]

You seem to have forgotten about the establishment of a "Maritime Exclusion Zone" 200 miles (322 kilometers) around the Malvinas Islands?
You don't seem to know that due to geographical conditions, there are few ports on the east coast of Taiwan?
A vast coastline doesn't mean you have a ton of targets to dock.
And it's hard to fathom how someone with extensive family navy experience would think that minelaying cannot be carried out by submarines, but must be carried out blatantly with escort?
Even stranger, when you mention Taiwan's minesweepers, you seem to think that minelaying are threatened by missiles, and minesweepers with more difficult tasks are not? Early warning and long-endurance drones seem to have suddenly lost their ability to monitor the port? ?

Are you seriously comparing Falkland to Taiwan??

I am using a single port as an example, less port = easier to defend, because you can have more material density. Ie if you have 8 Harpoon launcher to protect 4 ports, you get 2 per port, but if you have 8 harpoon launchers to protect 2 ports, you get 4 per.

And how many mine a submarine can hold? Can you even tell me that number? In a US Sub, that number is 25 Mk 60 Captor Mine on 12 tubes launch configuration, maybe you can hold 1000 mine per sub for Chinese sub? I don't know. And do you know how many mines you need to put a harbor in defensive role? It takes 19 casemates of mine to defend a normal harbor, each casemate has up to 300 mine, good luck trying to mind a harbor with your sub.

Submarine mines in United States harbor defense - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

And where is the Chinese missile come from? I already said you will need to have eyes and ears 24/7 to monitor the mine, and in the previous post, I have already said YOU CANNOT DO THAT WITH GROUND RADAR. Which mean you will not have complete picture 24/7. And how about Engineer? You can demine a naval mine field with Specialist diver, are you going to target those divers with missile as well?? LOL

And again, all these are moot point, US would most definitely uses Merchant Navy to support Taiwan, or even MSC (Military Sealift Command) which mean any sinking of US Merchant Navy ship or MSC ship would equal to a declaration of war to the US, again, if so, then the question you need to ask is whether or not China can win a fight with USN on open ocean.

 

[huanghong]

Are you seriously comparing Falkland to Taiwan??

I am using a single port as an example, less port = easier to defend, because you can have more material density. Ie if you have 8 Harpoon launcher to protect 4 ports, you get 2 per port, but if you have 8 harpoon launchers to protect 2 ports, you get 4 per.

And how many mine a submarine can hold? Can you even tell me that number? In a US Sub, that number is 25 Mk 60 Captor Mine on 12 tubes launch configuration, maybe you can hold 1000 mine per sub for Chinese sub? I don't know. And do you know how many mines you need to put a harbor in defensive role? It takes 19 casemates of mine to defend a normal harbor, each casemate has up to 300 mine, good luck trying to mind a harbor with your sub.

Submarine mines in United States harbor defense - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

And where is the Chinese missile come from? I already said you will need to have eyes and ears 24/7 to monitor the mine, and in the previous post, I have already said YOU CANNOT DO THAT WITH GROUND RADAR. Which mean you will not have complete picture 24/7. And how about Engineer? You can demine a naval mine field with Specialist diver, are you going to target those divers with missile as well?? LOL

Strange, I said from the beginning that for east coast targets, the surveillance mission is by AWACS and long-endurance UAVs, yet why do you keep saying ground-based radar, why is that?