China should ‘worry’ about Taiwan 2027 timeline, J-20 is just ‘OK’ fighter and “isn’t anything to lose sleep over”: US PACAF chief

[nang2]

Lol what are you talking about? China/mao tried several times and failed to take Taiwan, and they gave up because they realised they didn't have the capabilities to invade the island. They had no choice. You think invading a heavily defended large island country is a joke? Lol The hell, even Russia is finding it difficult dealing Ukraine a deadly blow eventhough Ukraine is just the other side of the border to Russia and they have a large land border. Imagine if Russia had to invade Ukraine as an island. Lol they wouldn't stand a chance to be honest. Only country who has the capabilities and track record of doing so around the world is the U.S.
Anyway, Ukraine and Russia are different from China and Taiwan. Ukraine gained independence after the breakdown of Soviet Union, even Russia recognised their independence. Putin invaded Ukraine because he was worried about Kiev getting closer and closer to the West or joining E.U. He considers Ukraine and Much of balcan States and central Asia as Russias sphere of influence where Russia alone should have tital dominion over, just like France considers its african colonies as its sphere of influence that shouldn't be encroached on by other powers. There are all the hallmarks of imperial powers. So I don't understand why you are acting like any one of them is sort of good guy with Morality. Lol
China's case is different to be honest, as Taiwan is merely an unfinished civil war which the CCP WASN'T ABLE TO DEFEAT KMT completely to this day. Lol
The only way I see a peaceful unification is by allowing a multi party ruling coalition, which I know is impossible for CCP to accept. So the only way is by force/war.

China has never attempted on Taiwan. It has only tried on the small islands that are close to the mainland. One terrible failure followed by a success (different islands, in case you wonder).

China gave up then because we knew we didn't have the capability of taking it. Not because Taiwan had a formidable defense by itself. It was because US Navy was blocking the Taiwan strait after North Korea invaded the south. The capability is a relative term in case you are not aware.

 

[SaadH]

You think invading a heavily defended militarised large island country is a joke? Lol The hell, even Russia is finding it difficult dealing Ukraine a deadly blow eventhough Ukraine is just the other side of the border to Russia and they have a large land border(except you believe China is far more powerful than Russia and could do better. Lol ).

So US and their western allies won't mind China dropping a couple of Atomic bombs on Taiwan and threaten to drop more, unless and until unconditional surrender?

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

China has never attempted on Taiwan. It has only tried on the small islands that are close to the mainland. One terrible failure followed by a success (different islands, in case you wonder).

China gave up then because we knew we didn't have the capability of taking it. Not because Taiwan had a formidable defense by itself. It was because US Navy was blocking the Taiwan strait after North Korea invaded the south. The capability is a relative term in case you are not aware.

True, Mao got screwed by Stalin's encouraging of his installed puppet Kim Il-sung to invade the South.

Truman simply parked a bunch of ships in the area which resulted in Mao calling off his invasion plans.

 

[jhungary]

Anyone said Taiwan is a cake walk and Taiwan defence is useless need to have a serious reality check on their Military Knowledge, if they have one.

In term of warfare, Island Campaign (Taiwan is an island by the way) is the hardest of them all, because you will need to pressure not only the island itself, but you also have the ability to command the sea surrounding the island.

If anything we can learn from the Russian - Ukrainian war is that portable missile or semi-portable missile system have a serious impact to invading Navy, seeing how Ukraine sunk 7 Russian ships (One of them a guided missile cruiser by the way) when their Navy are without any surface combatant. That offset should be alarming to any war planer.

And then there are always the factor of whether or not US or its allies will intervene either thru defence article transfer or directly thru their Navy. If that is the case, it would be like WW2 when US taking on Iwo Jima or Okinawa without decimating Imperial Japanese Navy first. If this is the case, it would make the campaign I mentioned before seems like a cake walk.

 

[nang2]

True, the Chinese got screwed by the Soviets encouraging their installed puppet Kim Il-sung to invade the South.

The US simply parked a bunch of ships in the area as a result and Mao had to call off the invasion.

Well, that is just the history that no one can change. Making the best out of the new reality would be more fruitful.

 

[Broccoli]

Taiwan is particularly weak against China. 23 million people compared to 1411 million people. Think Georgia compared to Russia.

If PLA transport ships are sunk PLA gotta swim to Taiwan.

What is this weird 2027 timeline? I remember, China is more looking at 2049. I don't see any action by Chinese before the mid-2030's when US naval strength will have gone down due to decommissioning of older ships and China would have built up much more solid inventory and technology.

I wouldn't worry about that too much... Xi Jinping is following Mao's and Putins footsteps so by 2040 Chinese state is completely gutted by corruption and other problems.

 

[gambit]

Anyone said Taiwan is a cake walk and Taiwan defence is useless need to have a serious reality check on their Military Knowledge, if they have one.

We will get the usual post with massive animated gifs extolling the capabilities of the Dung Fling missiles to 'explain' how Taiwan is that 'cakewalk'.

 

[nahtanbob]

And which other country on this planet has a cyber warfare capabilities as strong as China? The answer is NONE
China is capable of shutting down the whole Taiwan without firing a bullet.
Welcome to the new era of cyber warfare , your old estimates doesn't apply here.

cyber warfare works only if you have a network connection

 

[JohnyD]

fair statement, its funny some ppl see its otherwise...when it comes to Air combat, only USAF can defeat itself, not even the combined air forces of the whole world (non nato)

 

[SecularNationalist]

cyber warfare works only if you have a network connection

And we are all connected these days. Most war systems are computerised or dependent on some kind of network.

 

[nahtanbob]

And we are all connected these days. Most war systems are computerised or dependent on some kind of network.

in event of war the physical connections can be severed

 

[SaadH]

Anyone said Taiwan is a cake walk and Taiwan defence is useless need to have a serious reality check on their Military Knowledge, if they have one.

In term of warfare, Island Campaign (Taiwan is an island by the way) is the hardest of them all, because you will need to pressure not only the island itself, but you also have the ability to command the sea surrounding the island.

If anything we can learn from the Russian - Ukrainian war is that portable missile or semi-portable missile system have a serious impact to invading Navy, seeing how Ukraine sunk 7 Russian ships (One of them a guided missile cruiser by the way) when their Navy are without any surface combatant. That offset should be alarming to any war planer.

And then there are always the factor of whether or not US or its allies will intervene either thru defence article transfer or directly thru their Navy. If that is the case, it would be like WW2 when US taking on Iwo Jima or Okinawa without decimating Imperial Japanese Navy first. If this is the case, it would make the campaign I mentioned before seems like a cake walk.

I would imagine a massive bombing (mostly through missiles and artillery) campaign to knock out most if not all of Taiwan's military and civilian infrastructure, followed by equally massive para drops coupled with WWII shore landings consisting of hundreds or ships and comprising of hundreds of thousands of men with close air support ought to do the trick. Would have to use the Powell doctrine instead of half-assed Putin one.

 

[jhungary]

I would imagine a massive bombing (mostly through missiles and artillery) campaign to knock out most if not all of Taiwan's military and civilian infrastructure, followed by equally massive para drops coupled with WWII shore landings consisting of hundreds or ships and comprising of hundreds of thousands of men with close air support ought to do the trick. Would have to use the Powell doctrine instead of half-assed Putin one.

might have work in 1940s when fortification and command structure are put above ground. Nowadays, it's very easy to have bomb proof bunker to host such facilities.

And then how big is your bomb run going to be? China is close but there is no way they can achieve that number of sorties, facing peer anti-air defence system no less. That would have been a slaughterhouse for the incoming bomber. Again, if anything we can learn from Russian-Ukraine war, you will see nowadays air defence network can be asymmetrical, it's not Putin doing halfass Air Campaign, it's mostly because Ukrainian Anti-Air Asset is very well hidden and Russian cannot find them so they can't go all in with Air Superiority.

And finally, you can only paradrop light infantry without much support and those drops are going to be scattered, being a former 82nd Airborne guy myself, I would not like those odd these scattered Airborne troop face off with Combine Arms Regiment they are facing once they had landed.

And Powell Doctrine only works if you have multiple nation support, can China launch 113,120 aerial sorties a month to neutralise Taiwanese Air and Land defence like Powell did back in Desert Storm? I don't think even US alone can pull this off, and USAF is a lot bigger than PLAAF.

 

[Genghis khan1]

People are bring in Ukraine without realizing Ukraine has a open land route for reinforcements of weaponry and large numbers of trained contractors. Initially Russians were clearly in charge of the situation. It wasn’t until western satellite start picking Russian armored and logistics blunders and start sending trained professional, along with Intel and weapons to take them out.

In Taiwan scenario. Once SLOC are blocked by China, Taiwan is a done deal. All China needs to do is enforce Naval blockade from safe distance and Use cheap artillery. Strike strategic targets and defenses with drones. No rush, just wait and pound.

It’s a matter of time before Taiwan surrender without an invasion.

 

[jhungary]

People are bring in Ukraine without realizing Ukraine has a open land route for reinforcements of weaponry and large numbers of trained contractors. Initially Russians were clearly in charge of the situation. It wasn’t until western satellite start picking Russian armored and logistics blunders and start sending trained professional, along with Intel and weapons to take them out.

In Taiwan scenario. Once SLOC are blocked by China, Taiwan is a done deal. All China needs to do is enforce Naval blockade from safe distance and Use cheap artillery. Strike strategic targets and defenses with drones. No rush, just wait and pound.

It’s a matter of time before Taiwan surrender without an invasion.

lol, it's like saying "if Russia can achieve air Superiority in Ukraine" then there are nothing flowing in and out and Ukraine would be done deal.

Taiwan is an Island, it's hard to completely cut off Sea Line of Communication. Bear in mind the Territorial Sea area of Taiwan (sea border extended out 12 nautical mile) is roughly 37,000 sq kilometers. Which mean a complete blockade would mean if we put the entire Chinese Navy on it and and each of the 450 ship Navy (From tug boat to Aircraft Carrier) would have to cover toughly 100 Sq kilometer to be able to completely block it off, and then that's before Taiwan Anti-Ship missile come into play. And that's also assume US will not intervene with their own Navy...

Chinese cannot sit outside Taiwanese port like Russian did to Odessa because Taiwan is a peer enemy with capable missile, and if Ukraine manage to sink 7 ships from Black Sea Fleet, you can imagine what kind of disaster waiting for the Chinese if they sit on Taiwanese port like the Russian did,.