China-Pakistan railway ‘worth it’ at estimated US$58 billion: study

[Indos]

Better build train route from Lahore into Northern Pakistan.

 

[Maula Jatt]

I seriously doubt it would cost $58-100 billion. At the moment we are in the final stages to negotiate a deal to rehabilitate the Karachi-Peshawar ML-1 (1,687 km ) line which is estimated to be at around $10 billion. That will be our priority first. It is something like 3 billion from ADB, 1 billion from GoP and rest from China.



Definitely not an easy task. But didn't people also doubt before the KKH was built? I will say this though I would prefer we rehabilitate the Pakistan-Iran-Turkey rail line and go to standard gauge. That is much more economical and it benefits us strategically as well on the western side.

Rest from China as in loan from China not grant right?
Ml-1 is good tbh, that serves our purpose but this is way too much

 

[Edevelop]

Rest from China as in loan from China not grant right?
Ml-1 is good tbh, that serves our purpose but this is way too much

Not sure in what form it would be from China. Could be either loan or build operate transfer

 

[Maula Jatt]

Better build train route from Lahore into Northern Pakistan.

No one lives in Northern Pakistan
Most of Pakistan lives in peshawar valley,near 5 rivers of Eastern Punjab and it's canal colonies and southern part along the Indus river

our Ml-1 line covers all of this area, that's why government is rightfully upgrading it

Connecting our north and Balochistan is not a priority as we are already cash strapped

 

[FuturePAF]

58 billion dollars is too expensive.

$58 billion can manufacture 70 type 055 destroyers or 14 aircraft carriers.

$58 billion does indeed seem high, and defiantly needs a breakdown.

I did a back of the envelop calculation on this project a few months ago; with the upgrade of ML-1 being about $10 billion for two tracks of 160 kmph track, $22.5 Billion for the Kashgar to Havelian section based on the math of the proposed Nepal-Lhasa rail route with similar mountain Ranges, and probably a further $5 Billion for the Karachi-Gwadar section. That is basically $37.5 Billion at the lowest possible price for a two track route all the way to gwadar. Perhaps they want to build a faster train with four tracks in places (like the Indian dedicated freight corridors), or additional routes in Pakistan.

There is also a possibility the $5 Billion for the Tran-Afghan rail route (Peshawar to Uzbekistan) has also been added into this route, to better integrate Afghanistan into CPEC and speed up the mining efforts there, and connect to the rail routes in Central Asia.

Perhaps also the route to the Reko-Diq mine is also in this plan, which would also line up nicely with connecting to the Iranian rail network at the border from Gwadar and fast trade via Iran to Turkey and then Europe. This segment would probably be a further $2-3 Billion but would be easily recouped with the gold mined at Reko-Diq.

If this kind of big investment actually gets done, I hope Pakistan takes this as the opportunity to switch standard gauge, and leaves the old rails to operate as inter-city metro lines as well as slow inter-city train lines, freeing up this new rail corridor to be for primarily freight.

So $58 Billion will probably end up rebuilding and expand most of the Pakistan rail network.

Now sure, it seems like a lot but if Pakistan can get its act together, the implication in terms of lower cost labor for Chinese companies has to also be taken into account considering the demographic issues in China. A strategy Japan has been employing a few decades now, and has helped keep many of their companies viable.

Better build train route from Lahore into Northern Pakistan.

Lahore to Islamabad and then moving northward through Gilgit Baltistan to the Chinese border.

 

[Great Janjua]

. But didn't people also doubt before the KKH was built?

Like i said KKH was built along a natural river stream and it was naturally at a sustainable elevation that people also dwelt alongside this route. A railroad could be built alongside KKH but a new route is impossible.

 

[Indos]

No one lives in Northern Pakistan
Most of Pakistan lives in peshawar valley,near 5 rivers of Eastern Punjab and it's canal colonies and southern part along the Indus river
View attachment 926647
our Ml-1 line covers all of this area, that's why government is rightfully upgrading it

View attachment 926649

Connecting our north and Balochistan is not a priority as we are already cash strapped

For the sake of supporting Northern Pakistan people and to boost Pakistan tourism. Northern Pakistan is similar like Bali to Indonesia. Both have tourism appeal and while Bali is majority Hindu, Northern Pakistan is majority Shiah.

Lahore to Islamabad and then moving northward through Gilgit Baltistan to the Chinese border.

Exactly.

 

[FuturePAF]

Like i said KKH was built along a natural river stream and it was naturally at a sustainable elevation that people also dwelt alongside this route. A railroad could be built alongside KKH but a new route is impossible.

A new route could possibly be build up to Chitral (kunar river valley?) and then over to the border crossing. It would the furthest away from Indian forces and possible attack.

As far as china is concerned, it provides a direct and very short land based route to Middle east's energy markets which also happen to be cash rich, and growing, spending at a blistering rate.

Pakistan should let the chineese build the railway, and charge for land access & freight.

Let the chineese deal with the rest.

Considering Pakistan has to pay for this, charging for transit is a no brainer and the only way to make it a sustainable project. I hope the powers that be make sure this is truly a sustainable project because the nation can not bear tens of billions of loans that will put us in another economic crisis in a decades time.

If China commits to using this route and supporting the SEZs in Pakistan as part of CPEC in large enough volumes, this project will easily pay for itself in a couple of decades.

$8 billion probably is Ok, but not $58 billion, it's too big a risk even for China.

Compare it to the risk of supplies being cutoff in the malacca straits and 58 Billion is a small price to pay for maintaining supplies of imports and exports.

 

[FuturePAF]

I am worried that some Pakistanis might think this huge rail project is another big debt trap China is imposing on Pakistan just as some think the other on going CPEC projects are. $58 billion is a big risky spending for even the size of China too. China has to be cautious. China has already over spent or wasted lots of money on many BRI projects like in Africa and Latin America that are not crucial or important to China's security and development.

This is why Pakistan needs to get its act together, have the elections, and have a government that focuses on the economy.

With a economy focused government in place, Chinese investors will see their investment will get reliable ROI and will be protected because the host country is focusing on social harmony and human development, especially in the regions these rail routes go through.

The core portion in a $23 Billion route between Kashgar and Havelian in Pakistan and $5 Billion between Karachi and Gwadar. Once that is built the rest can be built piece meal once the ROI starts coming in. A further $3 billion would make a connection with the Iranian rail network from Gwadar and allow Iran crude to come via rail to China directly.

 

[Indos]

Compare it to the risk of supplies being cutoff in the malacca straits and 58 Billion is a small price to pay for maintaining supplies of imports and exports.

Chinese can still use Sunda and Makassar Strait ( if it maintain good relationship with Indonesia )

Malacca strait basically belong to Indonesia, the only regional power in SEA

 

[Olympus81]

On second thought, there is current rail network from Karachi upto Islamabad.

The only question is whether Islamabad onwards to Northern Areas through to China border is a viable option.

I am not sure, in the current budgetary environment, whether this is a viable option for Pakistan.

Connectivity within Pakistan ie Karachi to Gwadar, Gwadar to Quetta, Gwadar to Jacobabad should be done by Pakistan itself. Its a no brainer.

 

[Edevelop]

There is also a possibility the $5 Billion for the Tran-Afghan rail route (Peshawar to Uzbekistan) has also been added into this route, to better integrate Afghanistan into CPEC and speed up the mining efforts there, and connect to the rail routes in Central Asia.

I don't see that happening. Afghanistan is a failed state, too dangerous, backward and a gov. led by Taliban only care about fighting wars. I know it's a bit bold but I believe at some point Pakistan has to conquer eastern part of Afghanistan. Only then we will see peace and the time we can connect with Central Asia.

 

[FuturePAF]

Chinese can still use Sunda and Makassar Strait ( if it maintain good relationship with Indonesia )

Malacca strait basically belong to Indonesia, the only regional power in SEA

China might have good relations with Indonesia, but right on the other side of those straits could be AUKUS subs waiting to take down tanker ships or PLAN warships. Indonesia may officially close the straits in a war causing a disruption of supplies.

I don't see that happening. Afghanistan is a failed state, too dangerous, backward and a gov. led by Taliban only care about fighting wars. I know it's a bit bold but I believe at some point Pakistan has to conquer eastern part of Afghanistan. Only then we will see peace and the time we can connect with Central Asia.

The route through Afghanistan is a bonus and not the primary route (and a relatively modest $5 Billion) in the case the Afghans want to focus on mining exports.

Pakistan has spend over 40 years beholden to the problems due to the situation in Afghanistan, it won’t go willing into overly engaging with the Afghans. Thinking about “conquering” Afghanistan with force is pointless, better to let the slow process of trade and deeper interdependency do the work over the next few decades.

 

[FuturePAF]

I seriously doubt it would cost $58-100 billion. At the moment we are in the final stages to negotiate a deal to rehabilitate the Karachi-Peshawar ML-1 (1,687 km ) line which is estimated to be at around $10 billion. That will be our priority first. It is something like 3 billion from ADB, 1 billion from GoP and rest from China.



Definitely not an easy task. Worst case scenario is we build a rail line up to Hazara. Railway goods can be transferred to trucks which could then carry on to China via KKH. But then didn't people also doubt KKH before it was built?

I will say this though I would prefer we prioritize and rehabilitate the Pakistan-Iran-Turkey rail line and go to standard gauge. That is much more economical and it benefits us strategically as well on the western side.

With this kind of large investment and the fact that Iran and China has Standard gauge, switch to standard gauge makes the most sense, now more than ever. Also an extension South down to Gwadar from Reko-Diq/and the Iranian border crossing point with a rail link as well as a rail link from gwadar to Karachi would allow the route to start generating revenue to recoup the investment and fund the next phase of the grand vision.

 

[Indos]

China might have good relations with Indonesia, but right on the other side of those straits could be AUKUS subs waiting to take down tanker ships or PLAN warships. Indonesia may officially close the straits in a war causing a disruption of supplies.

Indonesia is unlikely close Malacca strait, what we are doing is just abducting some ships who wants to go to Singapore port if they dont follow our rule like happening last year and the other year.

Unlikely there is war between US and China, similar like unlikely there is war between US and Russia.