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China, Pakistan may counter any Indian disruption to CPEC: South Asia expert

This is what I have been observing for quite some time, an india attack on Azad kashmir is a real possibility at this point because there are too many delusional indians as well as Yankees like this one in the indian and the US government who strongly believe that China will simply watch and bark while Pakistan will be torn apart by india and the US. I don't know how but this perception must be crushed right now if China is to avoid a war for the existence her closest ally.

@china zhoushan @Chinese-Dragon @ChineseTiger1986 @Sinopakfriend @SinoSoldier @Chinese Bamboo

Dear T-rex,

Thank you for tagging.

Your concern is totally understandable...what we are seeing is the brith of a new world power structure.

You are seeing minor powers like india joining China containment party and countries like Russia, Pak, eurasian countries firmly in SCO, all working towards a win-win paradigm. CPEC is an example of this.

So the strategic canvas is global and not just regional at all. Things are interrelated.

Can india attack Pak brothers? Yes, Pak is already under indian proxy attack for last ten years.

Can/Will india attack directly the Free Kashmir or Pak G-B region where the CPEC passes through? I highly doubt it. But then indians are not rational..so anything is possible.

We will certainly see some troublemaking and posturing by the indians...they will mainly focus on Pak and try to indrectly pressurise China.

The operative word here is:TRY.

If the full might of troublemakers cann't intimidate China in the SCS...then indians can keep dreaming.
China will NOT be intimidated ever again.

So, yes, Pak brothers should take indian threats seriously and prepare accordingly. CPEC must be finished and the follow up plans executed with supreme deligence and focus.

If indians think that they can piggy back the US and become the policeman in asia...ie. superpower...then we should not wake them up.


@china zhoushan @Chinese-Dragon @ChineseTiger1986 @Sinopakfriend @SinoSoldier @Chinese Bamboo @Pakistan First @PaklovesTurkiye @I S I @AsianUnion
@TaiShang @Kiss_of_the_Dragon @Economic superpower @HAKIKAT
 
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Agree with @Sinopakfriend while also understanding @T-Rex 's concern

Pakistan must be (and is) ready to counter any Indian offensive, on its own. While these recent developments with China has helped us increase the stakes for India for any misadventure, however, these certainly do not eliminate the risks.

We should continue to keep the cost of war (whether limited scale or full-scale) for India so high that it does not make the mistake.

Having said that, China also needs to send clear message, not from one of its think tanks, but from official level, that China has obtained evidence (which it has) of Indian involvement in sabotaging their projects in Pakistan which are of strategic significance to China and that China will not tolerate any such sabotaging. No, China cannot stay quite at this juncture.
 
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China will get involved if India foments trouble in Balochistan: Chinese think tank
Home / Today's Paper / Top Story / China will get involved if India foments trouble in Balochistan: Chinese think tank
August 30, 2016
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RAWALPINDI: China will have “to get involved” if any Indian “plot” disrupts the $46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in the restive Balochistan, an influential Chinese think tank has warned India.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s reference to Balochistan in his Independence Day speech is the “latest concern” for China and among its scholars, Hu Shisheng, the director of the Institute of South and Southeast Asian and Oceanian Studies at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), told IANS in a freewheeling interview, says a report published in Hindustan Times.

The researcher, at one of China’s most powerful think tanks, which is affiliated with the ministry of state security, also said India’s growing military ties with the US and its changed attitude on the disputed South China Sea are ringing alarm bells for China. “The latest concern for China is Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s speech from the Red Fort in which he referred to the issues like Kashmir and Balochistan,” Hu said. “It could be regarded as a watershed moment in India’s policy towards Pakistan. Why Chinese scholars are concerned is because this is for the first time India has mentioned it,” he added.

Hu said China fears India may use “anti-government” elements in Pakistan’s restive Balochistan where Beijing is building the $46 billion CPEC -- a key to the success of its ambitious One Road One Belt project. “There is concern that India may take the same approach, which is believed by the Indian side Pakistan is taking, asymmetrically using anti-government factors in Pakistan,” Hu said on the expansive and leafy campus of CICIR.

“If this kind of plot causes damage to the CPEC, China will have to get involved,” he said, referring to the alleged involvement of India in backing separatists in Balochistan, Gilgit-Baltistan and AJK.

The ongoing CPEC will connect China’s largest province, Xinjiang, with Pakistan’s Gwadar port in Balochistan, hit by rebels and separatists. India has strongly opposed the corridor as it will pass through Gilgit-Baltistan and AJK, which it claims as its own.

Islamabad has long accused India of fomenting trouble in this region -- a charge denied by New Delhi. However, Modi’s reference to the region, experts say, is a signal to Pakistan that New Delhi could raise tensions in the region as a tit for tat for Pakistan’s backing for militants in Jammu and Kashmir. “This will not help Pakistan to become a normal country. And it will also further disturb India-China relations,” Hu pointed out.

He noted the growing defence cooperation between India and the US was also a worrying factor for China. “In the past, China was not so much concerned about India’s security cooperation with other countries, especially with the US. But now Chinese scholars can feel the concern,” Hu said. He said the defence cooperation between New Delhi and Washington increased significantly after Modi took over as prime minster.

He also referred to US Sefense Secretary Ashton Carter’s visit to India in April during which both the countries agreed in principle to sign the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA). “There is renewal of defence and technological cooperation (between India and the US) for another 10 years, enhancing the cooperation under the framework of DTTI (Defence Technology and Trade Initiative),” Hu added. “This is an alarming signal to China. It is a concern for China,” the expert said.

He also said India will have to resist pressure exerted by the US and Japan to join them in countering China. “We also know that the US and Japan, as well as Australia, are very keen on getting India in their camp. They are also exerting pressure. They are also luring India by giving high-technology deals and advanced military weapons. It is up to India whether India can resist this kind of temptation,” Hu said.

India’s involvement in the South China Sea dispute was another irritant in the already strained relationship between India and China, Hu added. “In the past, India’s stand on the South China Sea was impartial. Indian is getting more and more involved. This attitude is another concern for China,” noted Hu. “We know that India has national interest in maintaining freedom of navigation and aviation, but China in the past has done nothing to block the so-called freedom of navigation.”

“Our problem is with the US. We can see India is becoming more vocal in issuing joint statements with the US and Japan on the South China Sea,” he added. A UN court in July rejected China’s claims over the so-called Nine-Dash line -- which covers almost 90% of the contested South China Sea -- and backed the Philippines which has overlapping claims in the oil and natural gas-rich waters, which are also partly claimed by Vietnam, Brunei, Taiwan and Malaysia. Beijing rejected the verdict as “illegal”.

India, 55% of whose trade passes through the Strait of Malacca that opens into the South China Sea, has asked the parties to peacefully resolve the dispute and show utmost respect to the United Nations’ Convention on the Law of the Sea.
 
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IF CPEC is such a game changer, and hold such significance for Pak & China, and if $46Bn is just the beginning - can't you just tweak it a bit and avoid the disputed G&B area from its route? Thoda ghuma ke nikaal lo na yaar CPEC ko.:p:
 
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Agree with @Sinopakfriend while also understanding @T-Rex 's concern

Pakistan must be (and is) ready to counter any Indian offensive, on its own. While these recent developments with China has helped us increase the stakes for India for any misadventure, however, these certainly do not eliminate the risks.

We should continue to keep the cost of war (whether limited scale or full-scale) for India so high that it does not make the mistake.

Having said that, China also needs to send clear message, not from one of its think tanks, but from official level, that China has obtained evidence (which it has) of Indian involvement in sabotaging their projects in Pakistan which are of strategic significance to China and that China will not tolerate any such sabotaging. No, China cannot stay quite at this juncture.

My young brother,

War is such ugly business...your great country has suffered so much in the last decade. So your people know what pain and loss is. May every human be spared from this evil thing called war!

War is very bad. Those who plan it or wish it are evil, with heart of darkness.

Yet, you must prepare at every level. Your biggest threat is within not without. You must crush these proxies.

The only strategy, which you have rightfully pointed out, is to make this indian adventurism so painful, so expensive that even the thought of it must send shivers in their spineless backs...

What Pak brothers must realise that they are not dealing with a rational state but are in existensial struggle agains a fascist idealogy bent on destruction and suffering....RSS is worlds oldest and most successful fascist organisation.

There is so much research work is done on this fact..yet in discourse here at PDF one fails to see this understood by Pak brothers.

Prepare, prepare..be clear in your response. let the indians...and most importantaly the hand in the glove..their new sponsor...know that Free Kashmir, Balochistan and G-B, Karachi, Sindh, KPK are redlines. Cross it on your own peril.

Regarding China and Chiese response...behind these scenes they have been very active. They know all what india has been doing and what its plans are...Chinese diplomacy is very different and subtle.

There is simple logic: when you give an inch you will loose a mile.

If China get intimidated by indian threats...then China can forget about South Tibet and illegally indian occupied territories in the north eastern states.

So China will never be initimidated by india...or anyone else.

Please, visit the link if you have time to read about the most successful Fascist in the world. It is written by an American who is not that friendly towards China..or Pak. (link below)

One of you Pak brothers must start a thread about this to educate your fellow countrymen about the true dangers they face.

http://chinamatters.blogspot.nl/2014/11/is-narendra-modi-leader-of-worlds.html
 
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IF CPEC is such a game changer, and hold such significance for Pak & China, and if $46Bn is just the beginning - can't you just tweak it a bit and avoid the disputed G&B area from its route? Thoda ghuma ke nikaal lo na yaar CPEC ko.:p:
Hello,

I asked one of your countryman earlier @ito -he probably didn't read or intentionally chose to refrain from commenting/answering- and I ask you the same, what "EXACTLY" is Pakistan or China developing or building in GB that India finds so offensive or, in violation on UN/UNSC charter, international norms, law or anything for that matter?

An educated reply will be appreciated.

Peace.

P.S, I suggest that you go through the Planning Commission of Pakistan's website to get a clear idea about CPEC.
 
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Hello,

I asked one of your countryman earlier @ito -he probably didn't read or intentionally chose to refrain from commenting/answering- and I ask you the same, what "EXACTLY" is Pakistan or China developing or building in GB that India finds so offensive or, in violation on UN/UNSC charter, international norms, law or anything for that matter?

An educated reply will be appreciated.

Peace.

P.S, I suggest that you go through the Planning Commission of Pakistan's website to get a clear idea about CPEC.
If a region is disputed over ownership between two countries, why should a third country involve in economic activity in it without taking approval from "Both" the parties? And tell me, under which "Law", UN/UNSC or whatever, did Pakistan gave away parts of it (Aksai chin) to China?
 
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If a region is disputed over ownership between two countries, why should a third country involve in economic activity in it without taking approval from "Both" the parties? And tell me, under which "Law", UN/UNSC or whatever, did Pakistan gave away parts of it (Aksai chin) to China?
With ALL DUE RESPECT, you didn't give me an ans, did you?

Was looking to engage in a fruitful and an educated discussion to get a better understanding and POVs of both sides, i.e., India as well as Pakistan instead of same old rhetoric and famebait. But, it's a fools errand. Lesson learned!

Thanks for your reply mate.

Good day.
 
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With ALL DUE RESPECT, you didn't give me an ans, did you?

Was looking to engage in a fruitful and an educated discussion to get a better understanding and POVs of both sides, i.e., India as well as Pakistan instead of same old rhetoric and famebait. But, it's a fools errand. Lesson learned!

Thanks for your reply mate.

Good day.
I answered it, the answer lie in the question itself. "Any economic activity without the consent of all the parties involved" is objectionable. I don't have to go into the project details. It's not my fault if your grey matter is not put to use. Where did you see flamebait in it?

India is a Party to GB area, as well as your side of illegally occupied Kashmir (UN/UNSC says clearly - All of J&K, including GB is disputed). If India allows Israel to construct an airport, a highway upto siachin in J&K, would pakistan object?
 
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What if the Hype surrounding CPEC settle and CPEC doesn't work for Pakistan but works exceptionally for China. No sarcasm but what will Pakistan govt do
 
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That's easiest to handle. Zarb-ae-azb - II
I meant not in the wrong sense but economically. Every Pakistani is counting big on CPEC/ Gawadar . If CPEC is solely for transporting Chinese goods and using the Gawadar for transportation and no benefits to Pakistan. What is the government plan gonna be . People of Gilgit , balitistan and balochistan already don't get any work in CPEC highway construction
 
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I answered it, the answer lie in the question itself. "Any economic activity without the consent of all the parties involved" is objectionable. I don't have to go into the project details. It's not my fault if your grey matter is not put to use. Where did you see flamebait in it?

India is a Party to GB area, as well as your side of illegally occupied Kashmir (UN/UNSC says clearly - All of J&K, including GB is disputed). If India allows Israel to construct an airport, a highway upto siachin in J&K, would pakistan object?
Kindly refrain from personal insults. Please consider this a warning or I will report you. If you are quoting me then, I humbly request that you keep it civil. Or don't quot me at all. It's really that simple my friend.

As for as flambait is concerned, I didn't mean to single you out. Neither did I intend to offend you. If you felt that way, I apologize. That said, when I say flambait, I mean this topic as whole and all the rhetoric and bravado which clouds the FACTS. And my question was my mere attempt to bring forth the FACTS. And as you commented in all your replies in which you quoted me, there's a very broad generalization but, not a single fact. With all due respect, you do not know WHAT EXACTLY is happening there. You do not know of a single project that's either on paper or taking form there. That's why I requested in my earlier reply for you to go through the Planning Commission's website, which of course you didn't bother with. And that's why I said in my follow on post,"Lesson learned!"

And to put things into perspective, your reply that I've quoted above is filled with flamebait.

That said, let's agree to disagree. I wish you good health and all the prosperity in the world. Kindly do not quote me any more.

Peace.
 
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Kindly refrain from personal insults. Please consider this a warning or I will report you. If you are quoting me then, I humbly request that you keep it civil. Or don't quot me at all. It's really that simple my friend.

As for as flambait is concerned, I didn't mean to single you out. Neither did I intend to offend you. If you felt that way, I apologize. That said, when I say flambait, I mean this topic as whole and all the rhetoric and bravado which clouds the FACTS. And my question was my mere attempt to bring forth the FACTS. And as you commented in all your replies in which you quoted me, there's a very broad generalization but, not a single fact. With all due respect, you do not know WHAT EXACTLY is happening there. You do not know of a single project that's either on paper or taking form there. That's why I requested in my earlier reply for you to go through the Planning Commission's website, which of course you didn't bother with. And that's why I said in my follow on post,"Lesson learned!"

And to put things into perspective, your reply that I've quoted above is filled with flamebait.

That said, let's agree to disagree. I wish you good health and all the prosperity in the world. Kindly do not quote me any more.

Peace.
Just to clarify "Grey matter not being put to use" is not an insult ("Lack of grey matter" would have been though). It is another way of saying "Please read it again and understand what I meant".

Anyways, I stand by my point, you stand by yours. Infact, this is the point of conflict, not only between you and me, but between our respective nations as well.

Peace
 
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China will get involved if India foments trouble in Balochistan: Chinese think tank
Home / Today's Paper / Top Story / China will get involved if India foments trouble in Balochistan: Chinese think tank
August 30, 2016
Print : Top Story
  • 0
  • 0
l_146382_010758_print.jpg



RAWALPINDI: China will have “to get involved” if any Indian “plot” disrupts the $46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in the restive Balochistan, an influential Chinese think tank has warned India.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s reference to Balochistan in his Independence Day speech is the “latest concern” for China and among its scholars, Hu Shisheng, the director of the Institute of South and Southeast Asian and Oceanian Studies at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), told IANS in a freewheeling interview, says a report published in Hindustan Times.

The researcher, at one of China’s most powerful think tanks, which is affiliated with the ministry of state security, also said India’s growing military ties with the US and its changed attitude on the disputed South China Sea are ringing alarm bells for China. “The latest concern for China is Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s speech from the Red Fort in which he referred to the issues like Kashmir and Balochistan,” Hu said. “It could be regarded as a watershed moment in India’s policy towards Pakistan. Why Chinese scholars are concerned is because this is for the first time India has mentioned it,” he added.

Hu said China fears India may use “anti-government” elements in Pakistan’s restive Balochistan where Beijing is building the $46 billion CPEC -- a key to the success of its ambitious One Road One Belt project. “There is concern that India may take the same approach, which is believed by the Indian side Pakistan is taking, asymmetrically using anti-government factors in Pakistan,” Hu said on the expansive and leafy campus of CICIR.

“If this kind of plot causes damage to the CPEC, China will have to get involved,” he said, referring to the alleged involvement of India in backing separatists in Balochistan, Gilgit-Baltistan and AJK.

The ongoing CPEC will connect China’s largest province, Xinjiang, with Pakistan’s Gwadar port in Balochistan, hit by rebels and separatists. India has strongly opposed the corridor as it will pass through Gilgit-Baltistan and AJK, which it claims as its own.

Islamabad has long accused India of fomenting trouble in this region -- a charge denied by New Delhi. However, Modi’s reference to the region, experts say, is a signal to Pakistan that New Delhi could raise tensions in the region as a tit for tat for Pakistan’s backing for militants in Jammu and Kashmir. “This will not help Pakistan to become a normal country. And it will also further disturb India-China relations,” Hu pointed out.

He noted the growing defence cooperation between India and the US was also a worrying factor for China. “In the past, China was not so much concerned about India’s security cooperation with other countries, especially with the US. But now Chinese scholars can feel the concern,” Hu said. He said the defence cooperation between New Delhi and Washington increased significantly after Modi took over as prime minster.

He also referred to US Sefense Secretary Ashton Carter’s visit to India in April during which both the countries agreed in principle to sign the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA). “There is renewal of defence and technological cooperation (between India and the US) for another 10 years, enhancing the cooperation under the framework of DTTI (Defence Technology and Trade Initiative),” Hu added. “This is an alarming signal to China. It is a concern for China,” the expert said.

He also said India will have to resist pressure exerted by the US and Japan to join them in countering China. “We also know that the US and Japan, as well as Australia, are very keen on getting India in their camp. They are also exerting pressure. They are also luring India by giving high-technology deals and advanced military weapons. It is up to India whether India can resist this kind of temptation,” Hu said.

India’s involvement in the South China Sea dispute was another irritant in the already strained relationship between India and China, Hu added. “In the past, India’s stand on the South China Sea was impartial. Indian is getting more and more involved. This attitude is another concern for China,” noted Hu. “We know that India has national interest in maintaining freedom of navigation and aviation, but China in the past has done nothing to block the so-called freedom of navigation.”

“Our problem is with the US. We can see India is becoming more vocal in issuing joint statements with the US and Japan on the South China Sea,” he added. A UN court in July rejected China’s claims over the so-called Nine-Dash line -- which covers almost 90% of the contested South China Sea -- and backed the Philippines which has overlapping claims in the oil and natural gas-rich waters, which are also partly claimed by Vietnam, Brunei, Taiwan and Malaysia. Beijing rejected the verdict as “illegal”.

India, 55% of whose trade passes through the Strait of Malacca that opens into the South China Sea, has asked the parties to peacefully resolve the dispute and show utmost respect to the United Nations’ Convention on the Law of the Sea.


If China gives air of Indian statement of Balochistan too much, then Xinjiang will start to boil followed by Tibet. China can only give warning statements. Nothing will happen. If China wants peace, it has to give back Indian territory & settle it differences with all the countries around South China Sea.

China has been making merry by frequent incursions in Ladakh, Arunachal pradesh & some other regions. They feel good when our leaders used to run & bow down to them & ask Russia, America to intervene to withdraw forces.

Now it's their turn. PM Nawaz pic is good with Chines PM, but he's not even bothered of Pakistan, he's secured himself in UK. He knows what's coming. If Pak Military goes too far fanning India, all the officials will be in soup with Panama.

I am not the policy maker. This is my feeling, may be I am wrong.
 
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