I mentioned before that the events occuring in the SCS is playing into the hands of the US. If the current event just keep on going as it is, China will loose in the long run.........unless they make a military strike now and capture all the islands in the spratly. Although a military conflict is unlikely, I still think it is the best option for China now. Here are my assessments:
The rig operation was a calculated move. Here are the pros (or the intended pros of the move) of the move:
-The rig was moved there to play a game of Chicken with the US. China want to show that the US asian pivot and commitment is fake. US can only pay lip service to their friends but aren't willing to do anything more. China correctly predicted this.
-This will send a message to Japan, VN and Phil to stop being hawkish because US is not going to support you like they said they would.
-In theory, this should make Vietnam less anti-Chinese and start negotiating. It also discourage Vietnam (or the Philippine) to unilaterally explore for oil/gas or invite a third party into fields within the 9-dash line. If Vietnam (or the Phil) accuse China of being aggressive and destabilizing the SCS by drilling in disputed area, China can also say the same in the future if Vietnam drills within the 9-dash line. Therefore, the world will see that Vietnam (or the Phil) is having double standard.
However, this is what is really going on and the cons of the rig operation:
-It is now a PR (public relation) battle between Vietnam/Phil and China. China is loosing. It is clear that the US is working overtime to give China a bad image (not just in the SCS, but also in the G7 and trade such as the hacking accusations) .Most western media paints China as the agressor in the SCS. CCP are now aware of this and trying to (hopelessly) rectify it in the UN.
-Japan has become more militarized. Abe succeeded in modifying the arms export ban. With the blessing of the US, Japan nominated itself to become a military leader in Asia and Phil/Vietnam are happy to accept this. CCP did not foresee this 5-6 years ago.
-Philippines is also becoming militarized. They no longer mind spending money on military arms.
-Vietnam becomes more hardened and stubborn. Instead of becoming less anti-Chinese and start negotiating, they've become even more pro-US and pro-Japan.
-Vietnamese civilian is quite unruly and extremely anti-Chinese. The country is quite unstabe and prone to a colour revolution.
-So when August come and the rig goes home, nothing will be achieved. China will gain no new island or territory. Her image will take a bit hit. If the rig stay longer, her image will even be more damaged and Phil/Viet will be more hardened.
-The US will be welcomed back to Asia more than ever by the Phil and VN. VCP will become very pro-US or the country may even have a colour revolution. With a pro-US government and military support from the US, it will even be harder to take back the VN-occupied Island in the SCS.
-With a US-backed Phil and VN who occupies most of the islands, the SCS can be a choke point for China. This is what the asian pivot is all about and why I think the events is playing into the hand of the US. The SCS can now become one more tool for the US to bring down China. It can choke China or it can be used to trigger an arms conflict between China and VN/Phil in the future or it can be used to control Japan and S.Korea should they want to be more independent from the US (SCS is also the main trading route and lifeline for Japan/S.Korea). All of this is not good for the stability and growth of China.
If you take all this into account, the best option for China is to make a quick and effective military strike against Vietnam to take back all the occupied Islands, destroy their airforce and naval assests and facilities. No need to occupy or enter their country. Here are the reasons why this is the best option and needs to happen now:
-this post is getting too long and I need to go.
