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China may not overtake America this century after all

LOL. You must be joking right? The Renaissance, The Industrial Revolution all of its are product of Capital. The Renaissance for example are undeniable proof what money can do to human society.

300px-David_von_Michelangelo.jpg

You think this Sh*t is cheap to make!

capitalism came about as a result of industrial revolution. renaissance happened before adam smith wrote about wealth of nations.all i am saying is that if money can be thrown then Qatar would be the most innovative place.
 
capitalism came about as a result of industrial revolution. renaissance happened before adam smith wrote about wealth of nations.all i am saying is that if money can be thrown then Qatar would be the most innovative place.

The Renaissance was spurred by the most wealthy family of Europe, the Medici, industrialisation was possible due to capital accumulation that came from the colonies. Of course you also need a fertile ground that is open enough for thinking out of the box. Qatar has the money but not open minded society nor are they investing enough in higher education.
 
Götterdämmerung;4287498 said:
The Renaissance was spurred by the most wealthy family of Europe, the Medici, industrialisation was possible due to capital accumulation that came from the colonies. Of course you also need a fertile ground that is open enough for thinking out of the box. Qatar has the money but not open minded society nor are they investing enough in higher education.

ok, so we all have consensus an open society and money is neded for human capital to blossom.
 
capitalism came about as a result of industrial revolution. renaissance happened before adam smith wrote about wealth of nations.all i am saying is that if money can be thrown then Qatar would be the most innovative place.

Here's a good video about the Renaissance.
The Renaissance: Was it a Thing? - Crash Course World History #22 - YouTube

The Renaissance happen because there are Money & Incentives (Rich Patrons like the Medici) toward art & Science. Money happens to be the most important factor of the Renaissance, but in order for the Renaissance to happen an outside interference is needed to spur the society. Qatar is mostly a Resort oriented country. So why the hell are you bringing Qatar?
 
I don't understand why people think it is an "accomplishment" for China to pass the USA in absolute GDP when China has at least four times the population of the USA. Shouldn't the sought after goal be to surpass the USA on per ca pita GDP? On that basis (i.e., 4X the USA's GDP) is it likely that China will surpass the USA this century?

Because US dominance is based on US dollar as international trade medium. The reason US can afford its current level of living standard and military spending is because vast majority of the nations uses US dollar as international trade medium. If China's GDP surpasses US, there is a very good chance for RMB to displace US dollar as international trade medium because Chinese economy is manufacturing based, making RMB more stable than US dollar.

It is a very big deal because such event can literally shatter the current global economical and political landscape.
 
Because US dominance is based on US dollar as international trade medium. The reason US can afford its current level of living standard and military spending is because vast majority of the nations uses US dollar as international trade medium. If China's GDP surpasses US, there is a very good chance for RMB to displace US dollar as international trade medium because Chinese economy is manufacturing based, making RMB more stable than US dollar.

It is a very big deal because such event can literally shatter the current global economical and political landscape.

*sigh* That is too simplistic. Political and economic stability is a big factor, and gdp alone says nothing. Manufacturing economy = stability is also too simplistic, and beside the point in anycase, the US, is stillone of the largest manufacturing powers in the world, Just because our service sector is absolutely huge doesn't mean we don't have a large manufacturing sector.
Facts About Manufacturing, Manufacturing Strategy - National Association of Manufacturers - Manufacturing Association

Manufacturing Led U.S. In 2012 Growth; Would Be World's 10th-Largest Economy If A Separate Country - Seeking Alpha

The stability of the US dollar isn't going to be questioned based on lack of manufacturing anytime soon.

Politically China is an enigma, and countries don't want an enigma in charge.
 
*sigh* That is too simplistic. Political and economic stability is a big factor, and gdp alone says nothing. Manufacturing economy = stability is also too simplistic, and beside the point in anycase, the US, is stillone of the largest manufacturing powers in the world, Just because our service sector is absolutely huge doesn't mean we don't have a large manufacturing sector.
Facts About Manufacturing, Manufacturing Strategy - National Association of Manufacturers - Manufacturing Association

Manufacturing Led U.S. In 2012 Growth; Would Be World's 10th-Largest Economy If A Separate Country - Seeking Alpha

The stability of the US dollar isn't going to be questioned based on lack of manufacturing anytime soon.

Politically China is an enigma, and countries don't want an enigma in charge.
Simplistic is correct. It is funny how these guys can say these things when China is emulating Japan and South Korea by depending on US consumers and Chinese workers are still behind American workers in productivity.

Further...

Huge Boost In U.S. Oil Output Set To Transform Global Market : The Two-Way : NPR
U.S. oil production is rising sharply and increased output from shale will be a "game changer" in global energy markets in the coming years, according to a new report out Tuesday by the International Energy Agency.

"U.S. shale oil will help meet most of the world's new oil needs in the next five years, even if demand rises from a pick-up in the global economy," the Paris-based agency said in its five-year outlook, called the Medium-Term Oil Market Report.

"North American supply is an even bigger deal than we thought. A real game changer in every way," said Maria van der Hoeven, the IEA's executive director.

She said that North American production has set off a "supply shock that is sending ripples throughout the world" and urged the United States to dismantle the Export Administration Act of 1979, which bans the sale of U.S. crude abroad, except to Canada and Mexico.

"This issue is on the table. I think it has to be addressed because if there are no export licenses for crude, then the industry will find different ways, as they are looking for now already with processed, half-processed products, things like that," van der Hoeven said.
 
Simplistic is correct. It is funny how these guys can say these things when China is emulating Japan and South Korea by depending on US consumers and Chinese workers are still behind American workers in productivity.

Further...

Huge Boost In U.S. Oil Output Set To Transform Global Market : The Two-Way : NPR

First of all, US is only one of China's trade partners. It is not even the biggest. Due to trade protectionism, Europeans are much more open to Chinese export than Americans.
Second, I admit that comparing raw manufacturing power is a bit too simplistic to drawn a conclusion. The message I attempted to convene in my original response remains the same----Chinese GDP passing US means US dollar loses its dominance. In fact, the process has already begin with nations such as South Korea, Australia and UK signed direct currency exchange agreements with China. Currently, US economy is able to keep itself afloat without too much inflation due to international demand of US dollar absorbing effect of quantitative easing.
The reason international market is forced to do that is because US dollar is currency the SOLE international currency. This is because Euro's stability has been cast in doubt in the recent years and RMB previously lacks the economic foundation and China lacks the power projection capacity to secure RMB's place in international market. However, with the shift in power balance in the past few years, a lot of things are changing. Chinese economy is getting stronger and China's ability to project its influence is growing as well. This paves the way for RMB to displace US dollar.

As for the emulating Japan and South Korea comment, aside from dozens of obvious problems with this statement, there is one fundamental difference between Chinese and SK/Japanese economies----The Chinese are capable of defending themselves from an US military invasion. The problem with Japan and South Korea are that no matter how well they do, they can never hope to threaten US economy because as soon as they get close enough to do so, US military will instantly smack them down. This can be observed in Plaza Accord where the Japanese are powerless to resist a demand from US.
 
Simplistic is correct. It is funny how these guys can say these things when China is emulating Japan and South Korea by depending on US consumers and Chinese workers are still behind American workers in productivity.

Further...

Huge Boost In U.S. Oil Output Set To Transform Global Market : The Two-Way : NPR

:lol: oh goodie, what do you know, getting economic advise from a playstation player. Domestic consumption in China now accounts for 50% of our growth and exports to the US is a tiny 17% of our total exports. That's why even though the American economy is doing poorly that we are growing much faster.
 
:lol: oh goodie, what do you know, getting economic advise from a playstation player. Domestic consumption in China now accounts for 50% of our growth and exports to the US is a tiny 17% of our total exports. That's why even though the American economy is doing poorly that we are growing much faster.

Correct. EU is a better alternative as main trade partner for several reasons:

1. European Union market is large enough.
2. European nations are advanced enough that bilateral trade is possible.
3. European Union's trade protectionism is significantly less than US.

Ideally, China should choose markets that are closer to home, thus allowing China to exert influences more easily. However, the sheer size of Chinese market force means that even Russia and India are not big enough to accommodate it, let alone the likes of Vietnam or South Korea. Not to mention bilateral trade is rather problematic with these nations since they don't really have much to offer to China aside from raw materials. Japan used to be a decent choice and it was indeed an important trade partner for quite a while, but the whole conflict with Diaoyu island shows that as long as US controls Japanese policy, a stable long term relationship between China and Japan is difficult, if not impossible to achieve.
 
:lol: oh goodie, what do you know, getting economic advise from a playstation player. Domestic consumption in China now accounts for 50% of our growth and exports to the US is a tiny 17% of our total exports. That's why even though the American economy is doing poorly that we are growing much faster.
Here is the average salary in China...

China's 2011 average salaries revealed |Economy |chinadaily.com.cn

There goes your %50 domestic consumption. :lol:

Second, I admit that comparing raw manufacturing power is a bit too simplistic to drawn a conclusion. The message I attempted to convene in my original response remains the same----Chinese GDP passing US means US dollar loses its dominance. In fact, the process has already begin with nations such as South Korea, Australia and UK signed direct currency exchange agreements with China. Currently, US economy is able to keep itself afloat without too much inflation due to international demand of US dollar absorbing effect of quantitative easing.
The reason international market is forced to do that is because US dollar is currency the SOLE international currency. This is because Euro's stability has been cast in doubt in the recent years and RMB previously lacks the economic foundation and China lacks the power projection capacity to secure RMB's place in international market. However, with the shift in power balance in the past few years, a lot of things are changing. Chinese economy is getting stronger and China's ability to project its influence is growing as well. This paves the way for RMB to displace US dollar.
Do you even see how you contradict yourself as highlighted?

As for the emulating Japan and South Korea comment, aside from dozens of obvious problems with this statement, there is one fundamental difference between Chinese and SK/Japanese economies----The Chinese are capable of defending themselves from an US military invasion. The problem with Japan and South Korea are that no matter how well they do, they can never hope to threaten US economy because as soon as they get close enough to do so, US military will instantly smack them down. This can be observed in Plaza Accord where the Japanese are powerless to resist a demand from US.
That is sheer nonsense. There are many segments of the Japanese industry where the Japanese at least rival and even outperformed the American counterpart -- the auto industry for example. Or how about my own semiconductor manufacturing for another example. You want this argument to be taken seriously? Try supporting it with a credible economist.
 
These sort of anti-China rants were being reported back in 2003 as well.

How Fast Is China Really Growing? - Businessweek

A decade later, the liars are still lying and wishing, wishing and just wishing all the time for something terrible to happen to the Chinese economy.

This sort of anti-China obsession for some has become a lifelong incurable cancer.

The rants about the US have been ongoing since our country's birth, and they really took off vitriolically post WW2.
 
Correct. EU is a better alternative as main trade partner for several reasons:

1. European Union market is large enough.
2. European nations are advanced enough that bilateral trade is possible.
3. European Union's trade protectionism is significantly less than US.

Ideally, China should choose markets that are closer to home, thus allowing China to exert influences more easily. However, the sheer size of Chinese market force means that even Russia and India are not big enough to accommodate it, let alone the likes of Vietnam or South Korea. Not to mention bilateral trade is rather problematic with these nations since they don't really have much to offer to China aside from raw materials. Japan used to be a decent choice and it was indeed an important trade partner for quite a while, but the whole conflict with Diaoyu island shows that as long as US controls Japanese policy, a stable long term relationship between China and Japan is difficult, if not impossible to achieve.

displacing the US dollar as the sole currency will not happen bar some cataclysm that leaves China untouched and economically prosperous and all other major countries devastated both economically and physically.

There was a reason the US dollar became the sole international currency aside from being economically prosperous...
 

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