China Matches Economic Clout with Growing Military Might

[beijingwalker]

China Matches Economic Clout with Growing Military Might

While focus remains on how China is extending its Asian profile through construction of rail and road networks and economic corridors throughout the region, little attention has been paid to how it is translating its economic wealth into military power — power that the budding empire intends to use not just to protect its territorial integrity but also to expand its scope.

China’s military modernization, which involves upgrading both conventional and un-conventional warfare machines is the most appropriate reflection of what the leadership—including President Xi Jinping—has characterized as a “period of strategic opportunity.” Economic wealth is being translated into military modernization.

Significant among these developments is China’s naval transformation and the way it has already started to project it to extend the scope of the region directly in its reach, as Asia Sentinel reported on Dec. 30. The rise of China’s blue water navy is not only going to enable China to look beyond its coastal waters but also enable it to back its claims on certain disputed areas and islands by superior military force.

http://www.asiasentinel.com/politics/china-matches-economy-military/

 

[Wen Ling]

PLAN is in baby stage, do not be exaggerated. a good navy need a hundred years to be built.

 

[+4vsgorillas-Apebane]

PLAN is in baby stage, do not be exaggerated. a good navy need a hundred years to be built.

For a civilizational state as ancient as China, 100 years is like a weekend.

Then again, Im confident 100 years isnt needed, just 3-5 decades.

 

[Orakzai]

Chinese are fast learners, say in a decade or two you'll see a completely transformed PLAN.

 

[UKBengali]

Chinese are fast learners, say in a decade or two you'll see a completely transformed PLAN.

By 2030 PLAN will be comparable to US Navy.

 

[Ultima Thule]

By 2030 PLAN will be comparable to US Navy.

but 2030 will be to early i thinks it will be in 2040-45

 

[UKBengali]

but 2030 will be to early i thinks it will be in 2040-45

Let us wait and see.

 

[faithfulguy]

By 2030 PLAN will be comparable to US Navy.

Only India is into matching other countries. I don't think China have any plans to match any country or use that as a criteria for development.

 

[UKBengali]

Only India is into matching other countries. I don't think China have any plans to match any country or use that as a criteria for development.

Yes China has realistic plans to push US back to Hawaii by 2030.

You need to read up on geopolitics and then you will get the big picture.

 

[Cyberian]

By 2030 PLAN will be comparable to US Navy.

Why? Does the US Navy plan to hibernate till then?

 

[terranMarine]

5-6 decades from now is a more accurate prediction. The US ofcos doesn't sit idle but how many Aircraft Carriers or warships is the US gonna keep on building if it desires to maintain the sole super power status? While China may end up with 10 to 12 AC is the US gonna have like 25 to 30? Lets not forget the costs for the construction and maintenance. Be realistic the US shall reach a critical point in which the costs are astronomically high and unjustifiable to keep on producing more warships.

 

[Cybernetics]

A Macro View:
This is only the beginning, China has a long way to go to match the US Navy (there is no need to). As of now China has no need to maintain a global strike force to enforce its Global Order (it lacks one).China is in the initial modernization wave to completely get rid of cold war era equipment and mindset. According to the chart >25 years is needed to match the US Navy. IMO its a bit too optimistic.

While Naval upgrades had been done fairly quickly it was also to make up for lack of improvements from 1990's and low technological base. We will probably be seeing a more active Chinese blue water navy in the 2020's but no where near the power projection capabilities similar to that of the US. China just needs to be capable of maintaining its interests of preventing blockade, anti-piracy, rescue, and humanitarian missions. In the 2020's we will probably see a limited expeditionary force capable of amphibious warfare.

While the Navy has a lot of catching up to do the Army fairs relatively better. Again the Chinese army started from a low technological base and needs a lot of catching up to do but I was quite surprised with the pace of progress. One indicator of technological progress are the arms expos. Every year we are seeing more impressive and advanced weapon systems from the Chinese arms industry. These companies are getting more involved in international markets thus subject to more competition and scruitny. Recent arms competitions showed the weaknesses/lack of interest of some weapon systems. This imo is a positive, it exposes flaws with these systems, if these companies wants to survive they will have to quickly develop a new or improved system. When these firms live in an uncertain world without the safety net of the government they are incentivized to innovate and realize their potential. In the environment of international competitions these firms will realize their shortcomings and the strengths of others, they apply that knowledge to improve themselves. One advantage Chinese arms industry has over many others' is the quick turn around time. As long as China engages more with the international markets to provide competition to these firms I see China's defense industry developing on the right path.

Another component of waging war is logistics and training. China is gathering experience through committing 8000 troops to UN peacekeeping. Peacekeeping missions will not offer the same combat experience gathered from high intensity warfare but only the basics. The missions are mainly good for practicing logistics. It will enable China an opportunity to deploy major assets such as the Y-20 and develop the experience necessary for deploying an expeditionary force. "Each sold separately, combat experience not included."

Personally I find these charts to be too optimistic as the algorithm is based off rough quantification of hardware quantity and capabilities, there isn't much consideration for coordination and combat effectiveness. I just used charts to provide a visual.

 

[Shotgunner51]

Lets not forget the costs for the construction and maintenance.

Well said, all projections seem to have missed the point - defence financials - and assume the current momentum will just go as it is. Reality? Just a few years back not even one single forecast, or projection, has envisioned today when US national debt surpass 100% of GDP as early as within 2016. And now talking about 2030 projection? The macro-financials (including currency, purchasing power, interests rate, inflation, etc), hence defence-related financials, are just beyond imagination. A navy is made up of their servicemen, contractors, and they do have mouths to feed. A navy can't operate without money, or say real purchasing power, backing it.

http://www.politico.com/story/2012/12/a-real-debt-goal-60-percent-by-2030-084985
http://www.wrsc.org/attach_image/us-national-debt-projections
https://www.cato.org/blog/federal-spending-debt-1790-2050
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/21625

On topic, China maintaining a military burn rate within affordable limits of her steadily growing financial strength is a sustainable practice. More importantly, this affordable burn rate is re-invested back domestically down to each and every microchips, fiber, LCD panel, HSS steel plate, composites and CNC machine tools.