CHINA IS BEING COMPARED TO PRE-WWI IMPERIAL GERMANY

[CardSharp]

You have experienced twenty years without a recession. You may think the world is your oyster now, but you shouldn't think China can be immune to the business cycle forever. What you are experiencing now is the usual boom when a predominantly agricultural economy quickly shifts to consumer-oriented industrialization. Germany experienced it, the U.S., Japan, South Korea, etc. It builds a collective confidence in the citizenry, but that has its dangers, too.

China hasn't had a recession in twenty years because China has been enacting those damned gradualist policies that you hate so much. Sorry but the business cycle happens when countries put those who participate in the bubbles first.

and you wonder why astro-turfing has become the preferred mode of political manipulation.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

You have experienced twenty years without a recession.

I think you're a bit confused here.

It's true that the business cycle means that there will always be downturns. However a "downturn" is not the same thing as a "recession", a recession means negative economic growth.

China DID have many downturns, such as during the Credit Crunch in 2008 and the Asian financial crisis in 1997. Both times the GDP growth slowed down enormously, but due to the high level of growth in the first place (average 10&#37 it did not turn negative.

So yes we have been experiencing the regular downturns, just like everyone else.

 

[Joe Shearer]

And look at India side, how come India is still worry about China's threat

you can claim western side is for Pak , but here is the list of eastern side.

Base Name State
Chabua AFS Assam
Jorhat AFS Assam
Kumbhigram Assam
Mohanbari Assam
Mountain Shadow AFS Assam
Tezpur AFS Assam
Tawang AFS Arunachal Pradesh

I am not sure that the locations of PLA AF aircraft resources in the map of PRC were correctly located. Since this map, it has been a frequent topic of conversation of an Indian military site that the PLA AF has a string of new airstrips and bases in southern Tibet. Some of the correspondents clinched the issue by displaying downloads from Google Earth, with coordinates included.

It appears reasonably certain that the PLA AF is as well-prepared as the PLA itself to act swiftly against South Asia.

North-East has geographic disadvantage from the defender's side.

The invader has good advantage considering if PLA can overun Sikkim and some land called the Chicken's nest,they end up isolating North-East from India.

Also ,We are very much concerned about its security as
1.One of our oil well with strategic oil reserves lies there.(Assam)
2.We have a state there which is disputed by China.
3.North-East has many separatist and insurgent movements.

Some comments:

• Sikkim, and the Chicken's Neck have always been the favourites of armchair strategists. I would caution Bombensturm against giving them too much importance, but at the same time, it has to be said that these two continue to be vulnerable points.
• Nathu La in Sikkim, for instance, a very high-altitude pass between Sikkim and Tibet, is a favourite venue for the PLA to display annoyance with demonstrations of strength;
• The 'Chicken's Neck' is the name given to a thin strip of territory of less than 100 kms. between Nepal and Bangladesh. It is through this passage that all road and rail traffic to the north-east travels. If the PLA manages to penetrate the Darjeeling Hills down to the Duars at the bottom, or passes down the Teesta Valley from Sikkim, again to the Duars, then all road and rail passage is cut off;
• However, the classic route has been the Bailey Trail, snaking its way from the Tibetan frontier to a point between Tawang and Bomdi La. I have already narrated the story of the war games in which Lt. Gen. Kumaramangalam and another contemporary who was an Infantry general, rather than a gunner like K, where K, role-playing the PLA, used the Bailey Trail or similar, parallel routes three times, and knocked his opponent off balance and struggling to respond three times. Not accounting for these results, forcing the 'forward strategy' on the bewildered general officers at Division and Corps levels and bringing civilian motives and beliefs into the management of military affairs led to an inevitable tragedy.
• We are already acquainted with other weak spots in the eastern Arunachal Pradesh, and I shall not dwell on these any further;
• I cannot help but point out the implications of the growing intimacy between PRC and Myanmar; this makes feasible a simple right hook across Myanmar territory straight into completely undefended parts of the north-east;
• It is still not clear what is intended in case of a PLA attack, irrespective of the direction and axis. Will the IA resist in forward positions? Does it propose to defend forward positions? Does it propose to hold a deeper defence line? Does it propose to counter-attack? If so, when, and how? If it has to counter-attack, how will it hold troops in strategic locations, and forward them to the battlefield? On foot? by truck? by armoured car? by chopper, as an air-mobile formation? by fixed-wing STOL transport, or as airborne troops?

You know what? I was planning to present this to Joe but was too busy yesterday.

I have no friends left. Woe is me.

It is understandable sometimes if we switch the position of two countries, just imagine Tibet is an independent country closely allied with India or a state of India. My hometown Chengdu could be under the gunpoint of India. I will be paranoid as well no matter how much Indian stresses they don't have ill intention toward us

Tell me about it! You've got it exactly right! It's frightening to be told that the world's largest Army is breathing down your neck. Incidentally, most of the time, I'm in Silchar, which is on the Indian side of the border from the north-east shoulder of Bangladesh - just a hop, skip and a jump from the probable PLA target of Tezpur.

Heh I should mention he is from Bengal which is almost exactly the same position Chengdu is. So you should understand his apprehension from that prospective.

Worse; see my comment above. 'Apprehensive' doesn't cut it.

Although you can sleep well at night, nevermind what the Indian press says I think the GoI will not act on the popular ambitions towards China.

'...no matter what the Indian press says...'

...popular ambitions towards China...'

What on earth are you talking about? There is no mood, never was, for any aggressive move on China. On the other hand, there has always been a huge demand for protection, for defence against attacks.

And I say let woe betide those who think the PLA a foe.

We think - I think - the PLA is a foe, a dangerous foe, ready and willing to move against India whenever the CPC wants it to. And woe may well betide us if it does move. But it is highly unlikely to be thanks to anything India provokes. That's for sure.

Moving troops into defensive positions, moving the best aircraft in inventory against PLA AF routes, strengthening the local levies and raising local military formations, building roads and airstrips, moving ammunition and fuel stocks into strategic locations, assessing and analysing the strategic options of the PLA/PLA AF and planning counter-measures, strengthening counter-intelligence and security, formulating doctrine to govern the operations of national military organisations - these are all defensive measures, and only a highly jaundiced view, or the view of a deliberate seeker-out of military friction will look at these as provocative.

The important difference here is China has agreed to exclude areas were citizens have identified themselves as Indian.

As I have noted earlier, this has not been realised in practice. For instance, the citizens of Arunachal Pradesh have identified themselves as Indian. This is emphatically not a propaganda statement but a carefully-considered remark based on a deep and thorough study of the local facts and circumstances. However, the gravest acts of mutual dissatisfaction and dislike have centred around this province of Arunachal Pradesh.

China is willing negotiate, India is not. By all honesty, this is the case today, if it were otherwise I'd say say so. By this perimeter alone we can rule out WWII Germany. As sickening a comparison as that maybe.

Yes, this is something which is a definite moral salience for China. On the other hand, it might be argued that many boundaries remained unresolved for years after a war ended, yet they were not inconsistent with parallel measures for some limited degree of normalisation.

I think parallels to WWII Germany are exaggerated. On the other hand, parallels to 18th and even more 19th century Great Britain and France are not.

 

[Kyusuibu Honbu]

Some comments:

[*]Sikkim, and the Chicken's Neck have always been the favourites of armchair strategists. I would caution Bombensturm against giving them too much importance, but at the same time, it has to be said that these two continue to be vulnerable points.

One more fact ,is the militants and separatists in NE, who"ll welcome the PLA as liberators.

You always need traitors for an invasion to be succesfull.

 

[Joe Shearer]

One more fact ,is the militants and separatists in NE, who"ll welcome the PLA as liberators.

You always need traitors for an invasion to be succesfull.

Heh.

Yes, indeed.

On the other hand, the nearly-40 odd dissident, terrorist groups are a varied, hugely differentiated lot. They have very individual grievances and objectives.

It might be an interesting idea to publish a table of these 'movements', and an analysis of their grievances. The differences will emerge starkly then.

 

[Solomon2]

China hasn't had a recession in twenty years because China has been enacting those damned gradualist policies that you hate so much.

What? When did I write that I hated these?

Sorry but the business cycle happens when countries put those who participate in the bubbles first.

Sometimes, as in the original South Sea Bubble and the recent "subprime" housing bubble in the U.S. (where the very rich who profited and the poor holding onto homes without paying are the beneficiaries.) But many times it is difficult to recognize the difference between what is a bubble and what is "natural".

and you wonder why astro-turfing has become the preferred mode of political manipulation.

I fail to see the connection.

China DID have many downturns, such as during the Credit Crunch in 2008 and the Asian financial crisis in 1997. Both times the GDP growth slowed down enormously, but due to the high level of growth in the first place (average 10%) it did not turn negative. So yes we have been experiencing the regular downturns, just like everyone else.

But China did not experience large-scale unemployment of the urban proletariat, just a slow-down, like you said. The social and economic difference between a slowdown and recession is enormous because a recession can lead to a downward economic spiral.

Because of China's enormous monetary reserves (similar to pre-WWI Germany) it can, for a few decades, manipulate demand to some extent to combat recessionary cycles, but that ability will have a cost: lower Chinese living standards and decreased international competitiveness.

In short, China is traveling roads others have taken, and many of the same choices about which path to take lie ahead in the next few years.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

But China did not experience large-scale unemployment of the urban proletariat, just a slow-down, like you said. The social and economic difference between a slowdown and recession is enormous because a recession can lead to a downward economic spiral.

Because of China's enormous monetary reserves (similar to pre-WWI Germany) it can, for a few decades, manipulate demand to some extent to combat recessionary cycles, but that ability will have a cost: lower Chinese living standards and decreased international competitiveness.

In short, China is traveling roads others have taken, and many of the same choices about which path to take lie ahead in the next few years.

Here is something you should know. China has something of a "security net" with regards to unemployment.

When urban workers lose their jobs, they can still go back to the countryside, to their family villages and live off the land there. It's all held for them in case they need to return.

In this event it is difficult for unemployed youth to congregate in city centers and cause problems, because they will be back in their family villages, in areas with low population densities.

Secondly, there is no economic law that says a country must experience a recession within a certain time frame. The economic cycle works on upturns and downturns. And as I said before, we have already had many "downturns", in fact we just had one during the credit crunch where economic growth slowed significantly.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

In short, China is traveling roads others have taken, and many of the same choices about which path to take lie ahead in the next few years.

Could you give me your thoughts on this?

Which choices will lead to which road, in your opinion?

 

[Solomon2]

Could you give me your thoughts on this? Which choices will lead to which road, in your opinion?

Will China choose Imperialist expansion, rallying Nationalism to avoid increased liberalization, or will China choose more democratic representation in government? (WWI suppressed Germany's liberal movement for years.)

Will China be satisfied with the gradual decline of the dollar, or will China be tempted to seek a sudden overthrow of the world monetary system and establish the yuan as a gold-based currency? (Essentially the trick Germany pulled in the 1870s, demonetizing silver to hurt France, ultimately leading to the collapse of the rupee and disruption of the Chinese economy via inflation.)

Will China allow economic liberalization in its interior provinces to the same extent as it allows elsewhere? One Chinese student claimed to me that Communists keep provinces like Shanxi comparatively poor and its people "stupid" so as to have a reliable source of soldiery to use against other Chinese. (19th century Austria also had a similar situation where provinces that were poor were favored for their soldiery.)

Will China continue to expand its claims at sea and abroad? (WWI started in the Balkans with Austria's attempts to expand its influence there.)

Will China attempt to build a blue-water navy to match that of the United States? (This was Germany's key avoidable error: they built it out of pride, not necessity, so the British thought it was meant as an instrument aimed at them and thus allied with France against Germany.)

There is still one big difference between Imperial Germany and Rising China. The population of Imperial Germany was increasing very rapidly. China's, it seems, is not. However, China's one-child policy seems to have led to a surplus of women-deprived males. In other countries rulers have often employed frustrated surplus males as soldiers in wars of conquest. What will China do with its mateless men?

 

[dataminer123]

I am not sure that the locations of PLA AF aircraft resources in the map of PRC were correctly located. Since this map, it has been a frequent topic of conversation of an Indian military site that the PLA AF has a string of new airstrips and bases in southern Tibet. Some of the correspondents clinched the issue by displaying downloads from Google Earth, with coordinates included.

Moving troops into defensive positions, moving the best aircraft in inventory against PLA AF routes, strengthening the local levies and raising local military formations, building roads and airstrips, moving ammunition and fuel stocks into strategic locations, assessing and analysing the strategic options of the PLA/PLA AF and planning counter-measures, strengthening counter-intelligence and security, formulating doctrine to govern the operations of national military organisations - these are all defensive measures, and only a highly jaundiced view, or the view of a deliberate seeker-out of military friction will look at these as provocative.

No one can provide authoritative answer to those airports built in Tibet. But to me, most of them are for logistic or civilian usage.

Have you thought about this: as a strategic rival, China would like to see India exhausted and consumed by excessive military spending and build up rather than see it competing head to head with China economically, this is the reason that Chinese Dragon pointed out in previous post that it will be better for India to pump limited money to something else. (Don't know why this kind opinion ticks JayAlt off). If you put yourself into China's shoes, you will see China had/has much worse hostile environment than India and the big bully on the street is lingering at China's door everyday.

 

[dataminer123]

Will China allow economic liberalization in its interior provinces to the same extent as it allows elsewhere? One Chinese student claimed to me that Communists keep provinces like Shanxi comparatively poor and its people "stupid" so as to have a reliable source of soldiery to use against other Chinese. (19th century Austria also had a similar situation where provinces that were poor were favored for their soldiery.)

This is hilarious and absurd, as a teacher (professor?), you should have better judgement than this

Will China continue to expand its claims at sea and abroad? (WWI started in the Balkans with Austria's attempts to expand its influence there.)

China is not expanding its claims, it has been holding all these claims for decades. So china is not "rocking the boat" by escalating these issues.

 

[NWO]

Will China choose Imperialist expansion, rallying Nationalism to avoid increased liberalization, or will China choose more democratic representation in government? (WWI suppressed Germany's liberal movement for years.)

You seem very keen on comparing China with Nazi Germany. Yet, you forget Hitler was only in power from 1933 to 1945. The years you point to, 1870's and WWI, are both far away from the Nazi Germany years you want to allude to so badly.

Will China be satisfied with the gradual decline of the dollar, or will China be tempted to seek a sudden overthrow of the world monetary system and establish the yuan as a gold-based currency? (Essentially the trick Germany pulled in the 1870s, demonetizing silver to hurt France, ultimately leading to the collapse of the rupee and disruption of the Chinese economy via inflation.)

Replace China with hundreds of other countries, like Great Britain, France, Soviet Russia, Tsar Russia, US, or a myriad of other countries and you get the same results.

Will China allow economic liberalization in its interior provinces to the same extent as it allows elsewhere? One Chinese student claimed to me that Communists keep provinces like Shanxi comparatively poor and its people "stupid" so as to have a reliable source of soldiery to use against other Chinese. (19th century Austria also had a similar situation where provinces that were poor were favored for their soldiery.)

Will US allow economic liberalization in its inner cities to the same extent as it allows elsewhere? One American student claimed to me, (NWO), that Capitalists keep cities like Detroit comparatively poor and its people "stupid" so as to have a reliable source of soldiery to use against other Americans. (19th century Austria also had a similar situation where provinces that were poor were favored for their soldiery.)

Will China continue to expand its claims at sea and abroad? (WWI started in the Balkans with Austria's attempts to expand its influence there.)

Don't worry -- the US is still far ahead.

Will China attempt to build a blue-water navy to match that of the United States? (This was Germany's key avoidable error: they built it out of pride, not necessity, so the British thought it was meant as an instrument aimed at them and thus allied with France against Germany.)

Depends -- does the US need a blue-water navy? If they do, why doesn't China also need one? Of course, the US will always properly patrol the international waters and the rest of the countries can just chill, and light a peace pipe.

There is still one big difference between Imperial Germany and Rising China. The population of Imperial Germany was increasing very rapidly. China's, it seems, is not. However, China's one-child policy seems to have led to a surplus of women-deprived males. In other countries rulers have often employed frustrated surplus males as soldiers in wars of conquest. What will China do with its mateless men?

Just one big difference? Really? Is that all you can come up with? Sorry to break it to you, but US and Nazi Germany have much more in common then China. US and the Nazi Regime share culture, language similarities, ethnicities, and history. What do China and Nazi Germany share? I mean, objectively and not subjectively.

 

[Solomon2]

This is hilarious and absurd, as a teacher (professor?), you should have better judgement than this

This statement was from one of my classmates who decided not to return to China after 1989. I repeat it here for evaluation by others.

China is not expanding its claims, it has been holding all these claims for decades. So china is not "rocking the boat" by escalating these issues.

Nonsense. English monarchs claimed the throne of France for centuries, but they only "rocked the boat" when they took military action to attempt to enforce their claims. Who cares who claims what as long as it is an empty nothing?

You seem very keen on comparing China with Nazi Germany...

I think you are confusing me with someone else.

Replace China with hundreds of other countries...

Here we are discussing the impact of demonetization of silver in the 1870s. What are you talking about?

Will US allow economic liberalization in its inner cities to the same extent as it allows elsewhere? One American student claimed -

This is just horsing around. I guess you don't want to be taken seriously.

 

[dataminer123]

This statement was from one of my classmates who decided not to return to China after 1989. I repeat it here for evaluation by others.

Come on! I was one of those "mob" throwing stone then .
You cannot use individual personal feeling 20 years ago to support your argument of existing situation in China.

Nonsense. English monarchs claimed the throne of France for centuries, but they only "rocked the boat" when they took military action to attempt to enforce their claims. Who cares who claims what as long as it is an empty nothing?
.

Sorry, my bad, i was trying to say China is not rocking the boat unless it escalates these issues - which i don't think so

 

[CardSharp]

This statement was from one of my classmates who decided not to return to China after 1989. I repeat it here for evaluation by others.

King Solomon says, not knowing the impetus some Chinese had in wanting to stay out of country. 20x the normal wage being a helluva a powerful incentive.

My parents were offered the same refugee status, and though my family chose to return to China there were quite a few who chose to stay in Germany, through I can assure you it was through no idealogical bent of their own.

You must realize that 1989 was not a democratic movement in the sense that the majority of Chinese wanted it. Democratic ideology is a luxury the majority of China's poor can ill afford.