China hesitant over J-10C barter deal with cash-strapped Iran

[Muhammed45]

The same Russia that doesn’t allow Iran to use its ports? The same Russia that blocked Syria from giving Iran a 99 year lease for a military base? Or maybe the Russia at the urging of UAE urged Assad to severe relations with Iran in return for reconstruction dollars?

Russia isn’t Iran’s friend, ally, or even business partner.

Mostly rumors sir. Currently Russian fighters or non.

I had heard about the port case, many things have changed ever since.

 

[IblinI]

If you Ask me, the only stealth platform that has been ever built so far is F-22. Others are the wannabe fifth generation fighters.
So in aviation USA is number one considered as the inventor, Russia comes second and China in third place.
Russia sold China SU35s Thats true but it was an export version of it. Don't you expect Russians to sell their topnotch technology to anyone out there.
Obviously, J10 is a capable fighter in own class but not a vital necessity for IRIAF. When You put it beside F14s it will act only as a force multiplier, Not a game Changer. Moreover if not with TOT then its totally dismissed. People are arguing many things, online guessings, about Iran-China economic pact. But imho its just an economic pact with intelligence sharing and mutual projects. It would not include consider able defense deals.

J20 has shown it's worth during the exercise, taken down multiple 4th gen jets with the pilot's flying hour under 100.
The result speaks more than belief.

 

[Sineva]

I gotta say its really embarrassing reading this sh!t [again],literally every few years this same old load of bollocks gets trotted out yet again.
Just so you ALL know,this claim dates back over the last 14 years[at least].....
https://www.strategycenter.net/research/pubID.171/pub_detail.asp
https://viewsweek.com/iran-to-get-chinese-j-10-fighter-jets-in-return-for-oil-rights/
https://thediplomat.com/2015/08/will-iran-order-150-new-fighter-jets-from-china/

China, Iran Ponder $1B Oil-For-Arms Deal

Saudi Arabia and Israel believe that Iran will increase oil production and begin spending heavily on weapons after economic sanctions are lifted.

www.ibtimes.com

 

[Muhammed45]

I gotta say its really embarrassing reading this sh!t [again],literally every few years this same old load of bollocks gets trotted out yet again.
Just so you ALL know,this claim dates back over the last 14 years[at least].....
https://www.strategycenter.net/research/pubID.171/pub_detail.asp
https://viewsweek.com/iran-to-get-chinese-j-10-fighter-jets-in-return-for-oil-rights/
https://thediplomat.com/2015/08/will-iran-order-150-new-fighter-jets-from-china/

China, Iran Ponder $1B Oil-For-Arms Deal

Saudi Arabia and Israel believe that Iran will increase oil production and begin spending heavily on weapons after economic sanctions are lifted.

www.ibtimes.com

Indeed sir.

Its getting boring to be honest. Unfortunately there is no mod in this section to end this shit once and forever.

 

[Hack-Hook]

Yes IRIAF leaders will decide what to do eventually. We are the no bodies merely stating our point of view.

But a question, what options do we have other than Russian fighter jets?

I am all for homemade fighter jets, but the problem is with Rouhani admin its an impossible thing to see any progress in that field. It was planned to unveil the first national turbofan engine almost 5 years ago.

why spend money on something just for the sake of having them. can those SU-30 stand against Bahrain F-16v can they stand against Qatar F15-QA, Eurofighter or Rafale what about KSA F-15SA/S or Typhon what about their F15C/D What about UAE 50 F35a that USA state department approved their sale .
if we want spend money w must spend it on something that will help us in countering the treat around us not spend it for competing air plane to airplane . don't forget exactly the same competition bankrupted USSR

 

[Muhammed45]

why spend money on something just for the sake of having them. can those SU-30 stand against Bahrain F-16v can they stand against Qatar F15-QA, Eurofighter or Rafale what about KSA F-15SA/S or Typhon what about their F15C/D What about UAE 50 F35a that USA state department approved their sale .
if we want spend money w must spend it on something that will help us in countering the treat around us not spend it for competing air plane to airplane . don't forget exactly the same competition bankrupted USSR

True, that's why we won't buy J-10.

Surely we will bomb their bases by ballistic missiles, its next to impossible for our armed forces to send fighter for fighter in a possible war, only patrolling Persian Gulf to detect intruding fighters or drones.

Even if Iran buys Su30s, they will act as an airdefense layer for detecting and downing American cruise missiles flying low and other American assets which could be considered as dark assets. All in all i agree with you, we won't throw our money away by these kind of fighter jets that adds nothing game changing.

 

[TheImmortal]

why spend money on something just for the sake of having them. can those SU-30 stand against Bahrain F-16v can they stand against Qatar F15-QA, Eurofighter or Rafale what about KSA F-15SA/S or Typhon what about their F15C/D What about UAE 50 F35a that USA state department approved their sale .
if we want spend money w must spend it on something that will help us in countering the treat around us not spend it for competing air plane to airplane . don't forget exactly the same competition bankrupted USSR

With such logic in 100 years Iran’s enemies will have UFOs and Iran won’t even have a propeller plane because someone thought it was an area not worth investing in.

There is plenty of ways to shelter air superiority fighters using underground Air Force bunker cities built into mountains. Each one could hold up 2-3 squadrons. And a SU-30 or J-17 in Iranian airspace can take a lot of the pressure of air defense forces who can then concentrate on intercepting swarms of Cruise missiles while at the same time providing air defense to Iranian air superiority fighters.

Taiwan has a underground airbase that can hold 100+ aircraft. According to your expert knowledge Taiwan should have throw their arms in the air and gave up and said it’s no use going up against the Chinese J-17, J-31, J-20.

And Comparing Iran’s 20B military budget to the Soviet Union which was rumored to be around 77 Billion Roubles in 1990 dollars is laughable illustration. Soviet Union was spending upwards of 15% of its GDP on defense.

 

[Hack-Hook]

With such logic in 100 years Iran’s enemies will have UFOs and Iran won’t even have a propeller plane because someone thought it was an area not worth investing in.

There is plenty of ways to shelter air superiority fighters using underground Air Force bunker cities built into mountains. Each one could hold up 2-3 squadrons. And a SU-30 or J-17 in Iranian airspace can take a lot of the pressure of air defense forces who can then concentrate on intercepting swarms of Cruise missiles while at the same time providing air defense to Iranian air superiority fighters.

Taiwan has a underground airbase that can hold 100+ aircraft. According to your expert knowledge Taiwan should have throw their arms in the air and gave up and said it’s no use going up against the Chinese J-17, J-31, J-20.

And Comparing Iran’s 20B military budget to the Soviet Union which was rumored to be around 77 Billion Roubles in 1990 dollars is laughable illustration. Soviet Union was spending upwards of 15% of its GDP on defense.

What taiwan is after an air plane with 30 year old technology ?
By the way let show you another great way for protecting airplanes its a lot cheaper. Let go Saddam way and bury those airplanes under the sand.

The duty of thosevairplanes is not being protected underground they must go face enemy in the sky. And those su-30 cant do that against the currrent inventory of countries around us let not talk about their future airplane .
Buying a 4th generation or 4+ generation airplane add nothing for us.

True, that's why we won't buy J-10.

Surely we will bomb their bases by ballistic missiles, its next to impossible for our armed forces to send fighter for fighter in a possible war, only patrolling Persian Gulf to detect intruding fighters or drones.

Even if Iran buys Su30s, they will act as an airdefense layer for detecting and downing American cruise missiles flying low and other American assets which could be considered as dark assets. All in all i agree with you, we won't throw our money away by these kind of fighter jets that adds nothing game changing.

hus.honnestly for that role i prefer we develope our own kowsar and acquire several quality AWAX aircraft from anybodybwho is willing to sell them to us. And let the datalink do the job. Or better get those awax and link them to intercepror Karrar and let them do the job.
I believe if we want to buy airplane it must be something that enemy pilot be afraid of it.

 

[antonius123]

True, that's why we won't buy J-10.

Surely we will bomb their bases by ballistic missiles, its next to impossible for our armed forces to send fighter for fighter in a possible war, only patrolling Persian Gulf to detect intruding fighters or drones.

Even if Iran buys Su30s, they will act as an airdefense layer for detecting and downing American cruise missiles flying low and other American assets which could be considered as dark assets. All in all i agree with you, we won't throw our money away by these kind of fighter jets that adds nothing game changing.

Still doesn't make sense.

If you think SU30s can detect and down American cruise missiles, why J-10C can't?

The logical one is: Iran need combination of both SU30SM/SU35 for long range fighter and J-10C which is more superior for air defense.

 

[antonius123]

Iran-China fighter deal deadlock: an opportunity for Russia?


Since the end of the 1970s, Iran has been the target of international sanctions that have limited its ability to acquire new aircraft. The restrictive measures have been used as a way for the United States to strongarm the policies of the Islamic republic, particularly on its nuclear program. While Iran previously seemed to have found an alternative supplier in China, things appear more complicated.
A dire need of new aircraft
In 2015, the United States President Barack Obama reached an agreement with the Iranian regime after years of negotiations: Iran would give up its nuclear program in exchange for a progressive lift of the international sanctions affecting its economy. Several plane manufacturers, including Boeing and Airbus, had signed contracts to deliver an array of much-needed new aircraft to the Iranian carriers.

But in May 2018, the US administration decided to reimpose sanctions on the Islamic Republic of Iran, described by newly-elected President Donald Trump as the main sponsor of international terrorism. Only the Franco-Italian planemaker ATR managed to deliver five aircraft to Iran Air on August 5, 2018, a mere day before new American sanctions take effect.

Franco-Italian plane maker ATR managed to deliver five aircraft to Iran Air on August 5, 2018, a mere day before new American sanctions take effect.

Much like the country’s airlines, the Iranian Air Force is in dire need of new aircraft, especially fighter jets.

An array of antiques acquired prior to the Islamic revolution fly with the Iranian colors, such as the F-4 Phantom II, the Mirage F1, and the Northrop F-5. Iran was the sole foreign customer of the Grumman F-14 Tomcat, and since the US Navy retired the aircraft in 2006, it is the last to operate the iconic air superiority fighter. With no way to procure parts for 42 years, the flight condition of the jets remains unclear.

On August 18, 2018, the Iranian Ministry of Defense announced that the country had developed its own 4th generation fighter, the “Kowsar”. While Iranian authorities claim it was developed indigenously “following extensive research and efforts by the Iranian Defense Ministry’s experts,” it seems that the fighter is once again heavily based on the design of the Northrop F-5 from 1959.

Tehran thought it found a worthy opportunity in Beijing. After several years of negotiations, Iran and China signed a historic agreement on March 27, 2021. And along with this trade agreement, the acquisition of thirty Chinese-made Chengdu J-10C multi-role fighters was discussed, for a contract valued at $2 billion.

The latest iteration of the Chengdu J-10, the J-10C is presented as a 4.5th generation combat aircraft, thanks to the inclusion of an indigenous Active electronically scanned array (AESA) fire-control radar. The Japanese Ministry of Defense evaluated the number of J-10s operated by China at over 400, making it the second most numerous fighter jet of the People's Liberation Army Air Force after the Chengdu J-7.

The Russian solace?
However, China is reportedly not enthusiastic to see the deal move forward. Selling the fighter jets to Iran could expose Beijing to sanctions from the United States, based on the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). And while the relation between the two superpowers has been tense lately, China is apparently not ready to make matters worse. Additionally, arming Iran could muddle up the relationship with other potential partners in the Middle East, such as Israel or the United Arab Emirates.

There is, however, one country that does little in the way of appeasing the United States: Russia. Already under sanctions under the CAATSA, Moscow could have a card to play by offering Iran one of its fighter jets. The Su-30 Flanker, already operated by numerous allies of Russia, could be a contender.

This would not be the first time that Russia rushes to trade with the sanctioned country. In April 2018, two months before Trump announced the resumption of the sanctions, Sukhoi reached a memorandum of understanding with Iran Air Tours and Aseman Airlines for twenty SSJ100Rs each.

Iran-China fighter deal deadlock: an opportunity for Russia? - AeroTime

Since the end of the 1970s, Iran has been the target of international sanctions that have limited its ability to acquire new aircraft. The restrictive measures have been used as a way for the United States to strongarm the policies of the Islamic republic, particularly on its nuclear program...

www.aerotime.aero

 

[obj 705A]

The chances of Russia supplying Iran with aircrafts are zero, remember when Russia had a contract with Syria to supply the Syrian military with S-300 system, Israel objected and Putin obeyed Israel without any questions asked and halted shipment of the remaining components of the S-300 before it was complete even though Syria is the closest ally Russia has in this region, that is why to this day whenever Syria has to intercept Israeli fighters they use ancient missiles that should belong in a museum not in actual war.

And unfortunately I believe the chances of China exporting aircrafts to Iran also are zero percent and the reason for that is not financial nor is it the US nor is it Israel.
There are no financial hurdles that prevent China from exporting aircrafts to Iran, what is the cost of J-10 anyway, 50$ million maybe? So 24 fighters would cost 1.2$ billion, Iran could easily pay 600$ million upfront and then the remaining 600$ million could be payed by a Chinese loan which Iran would have to pay back in 10-20 years. And they could always split such a deal in two batches of 12 fighters each to further spread out the cost over a longer period, a 600$ million loan for China is not an issue.
The reason why China is not exporting weapons to Iran is not because of CAATSA, China couldn't care less about sanctions from the US since they are already in a trade war and China already is sanctioned under CAATSA due to purchase of Russian weapons, it is also certainly not because of a tiny state like Israel.
I believe Saudi Arabia is the one behind this reluctance from China to sell aircrafts to Iran. I remember watching a documentary (I think it was an interview with an ex Saudi official but I'm not sure) about how some decades ago whenever Iran would want to buy weapons from China the Saudis would contact Beijing and tell them "whatever amount of money the Iranians promised you, we will pay you several times that in exchange for not giving them these weapons" and that was how the KSA prevented alot of weapons deals from being done with Iran back at that time.
Ofcourse nowadays China is totally different economically, a single Chinese city probably has GDP equal to that of the entire KSA, so this time it is impossible to bribe China into certain foreign policies.
That is why I believe it is more likely that Xinjiang is the reason why China is not exporting weapons to Iran, remember how every time the west starts barking about Xinjiang most of the muslim governments rush to the defence of China, the OIC and the muslim world is controlled mainly by the KSA, the KSA is the leader of the muslim ummah because Mecca is in their country, the massive global religious influence that the KSA has cannot be said enough. China understands that exporting fighter aircrafts to Iran may be would be going too far in antagonizing the KSA and the KSA might retaliate by not defending China in the OIC.
China gained alot from it's relation with the KSA, it would be unwise of China to sacrifice it's good relations with the KSA.

That is why the best and most realistic cooperation that could (and does) exist between China and Iran is economic, China would provide Iran a way out of these sanctions with these trade deals to help the Iranians develope their economy and also by importing oil from them (if I'm not mistaken China is by far the largest importer of Iranian oil), but militarily it will be on Iran to develope weapons to protect themselves.
And even if China actually started exporting aircrafts to Iran what benifit would they or Iran get from such a deal! If they do that then the only thing it would get them is that the KSA and the religious figures loyal to it would turn the vast majority of the muslim world against China thus the US would score a major point against China and even Iran would get nothing from it because let's get real what difference would 24 fighters do against the number one military in the world that is the US!

in the end I would say no kind of aircrafts would be enough against a military like that of the US, especially not in small numbers of just few dozens, the only way for Iran to ensure it's safety is for them make their own nuclear bomb.

 

[TheImmortal]

The chances of Russia supplying Iran with aircrafts are zero, remember when Russia had a contract with Syria to supply the Syrian military with S-300 system, Israel objected and Putin obeyed Israel without any questions asked and halted shipment of the remaining components of the S-300 before it was complete even though Syria is the closest ally Russia has in this region, that is why to this day whenever Syria has to intercept Israeli fighters they use ancient missiles that should belong in a museum not in actual war.

And unfortunately I believe the chances of China exporting aircrafts to Iran also are zero percent and the reason for that is not financial nor is it the US nor is it Israel.
There are no financial hurdles that prevent China from exporting aircrafts to Iran, what is the cost of J-10 anyway, 50$ million maybe? So 24 fighters would cost 1.2$ billion, Iran could easily pay 600$ million upfront and then the remaining 600$ million could be payed by a Chinese loan which Iran would have to pay back in 10-20 years. And they could always split such a deal in two batches of 12 fighters each to further spread out the cost over a longer period, a 600$ million loan for China is not an issue.
The reason why China is not exporting weapons to Iran is not because of CAATSA, China couldn't care less about sanctions from the US since they are already in a trade war and China already is sanctioned under CAATSA due to purchase of Russian weapons, it is also certainly not because of a tiny state like Israel.
I believe Saudi Arabia is the one behind this reluctance from China to sell aircrafts to Iran. I remember watching a documentary (I think it was an interview with an ex Saudi official but I'm not sure) about how some decades ago whenever Iran would want to buy weapons from China the Saudis would contact Beijing and tell them "whatever amount of money the Iranians promised you, we will pay you several times that in exchange for not giving them these weapons" and that was how the KSA prevented alot of weapons deals from being done with Iran back at that time.
Ofcourse nowadays China is totally different economically, a single Chinese city probably has GDP equal to that of the entire KSA, so this time it is impossible to bribe China into certain foreign policies.
That is why I believe it is more likely that Xinjiang is the reason why China is not exporting weapons to Iran, remember how every time the west starts barking about Xinjiang most of the muslim governments rush to the defence of China, the OIC and the muslim world is controlled mainly by the KSA, the KSA is the leader of the muslim ummah because Mecca is in their country, the massive global religious influence that the KSA has cannot be said enough. China understands that exporting fighter aircrafts to Iran may be would be going too far in antagonizing the KSA and the KSA might retaliate by not defending China in the OIC.
China gained alot from it's relation with the KSA, it would be unwise of China to sacrifice it's good relations with the KSA.

That is why the best and most realistic cooperation that could (and does) exist between China and Iran is economic, China would provide Iran a way out of these sanctions with these trade deals to help the Iranians develope their economy and also by importing oil from them (if I'm not mistaken China is by far the largest importer of Iranian oil), but militarily it will be on Iran to develope weapons to protect themselves.
And even if China actually started exporting aircrafts to Iran what benifit would they or Iran get from such a deal! If they do that then the only thing it would get them is that the KSA and the religious figures loyal to it would turn the vast majority of the muslim world against China thus the US would score a major point against China and even Iran would get nothing from it because let's get real what difference would 24 fighters do against the number one military in the world that is the US!

in the end I would say no kind of aircrafts would be enough against a military like that of the US, especially not in small numbers of just few dozens, the only way for Iran to ensure it's safety is for them make their own nuclear bomb.

TL;DR China is afarid of Saudi Arabia, US, and Israel creating social-demographic problems (unrest) in China. Chinese international policy is to play all sides and avoid rocking the boat.

Thank you for telling us Iranians what we already know.

In other news, the moon orbits the Earth.

 

[Bahram Esfandiari]

The chances of Russia supplying Iran with aircrafts are zero, remember when Russia had a contract with Syria to supply the Syrian military with S-300 system, Israel objected and Putin obeyed Israel without any questions asked and halted shipment of the remaining components of the S-300 before it was complete even though Syria is the closest ally Russia has in this region, that is why to this day whenever Syria has to intercept Israeli fighters they use ancient missiles that should belong in a museum not in actual war.

And unfortunately I believe the chances of China exporting aircrafts to Iran also are zero percent and the reason for that is not financial nor is it the US nor is it Israel.
There are no financial hurdles that prevent China from exporting aircrafts to Iran, what is the cost of J-10 anyway, 50$ million maybe? So 24 fighters would cost 1.2$ billion, Iran could easily pay 600$ million upfront and then the remaining 600$ million could be payed by a Chinese loan which Iran would have to pay back in 10-20 years. And they could always split such a deal in two batches of 12 fighters each to further spread out the cost over a longer period, a 600$ million loan for China is not an issue.
The reason why China is not exporting weapons to Iran is not because of CAATSA, China couldn't care less about sanctions from the US since they are already in a trade war and China already is sanctioned under CAATSA due to purchase of Russian weapons, it is also certainly not because of a tiny state like Israel.
I believe Saudi Arabia is the one behind this reluctance from China to sell aircrafts to Iran. I remember watching a documentary (I think it was an interview with an ex Saudi official but I'm not sure) about how some decades ago whenever Iran would want to buy weapons from China the Saudis would contact Beijing and tell them "whatever amount of money the Iranians promised you, we will pay you several times that in exchange for not giving them these weapons" and that was how the KSA prevented alot of weapons deals from being done with Iran back at that time.
Ofcourse nowadays China is totally different economically, a single Chinese city probably has GDP equal to that of the entire KSA, so this time it is impossible to bribe China into certain foreign policies.
That is why I believe it is more likely that Xinjiang is the reason why China is not exporting weapons to Iran, remember how every time the west starts barking about Xinjiang most of the muslim governments rush to the defence of China, the OIC and the muslim world is controlled mainly by the KSA, the KSA is the leader of the muslim ummah because Mecca is in their country, the massive global religious influence that the KSA has cannot be said enough. China understands that exporting fighter aircrafts to Iran may be would be going too far in antagonizing the KSA and the KSA might retaliate by not defending China in the OIC.
China gained alot from it's relation with the KSA, it would be unwise of China to sacrifice it's good relations with the KSA.

That is why the best and most realistic cooperation that could (and does) exist between China and Iran is economic, China would provide Iran a way out of these sanctions with these trade deals to help the Iranians develope their economy and also by importing oil from them (if I'm not mistaken China is by far the largest importer of Iranian oil), but militarily it will be on Iran to develope weapons to protect themselves.
And even if China actually started exporting aircrafts to Iran what benifit would they or Iran get from such a deal! If they do that then the only thing it would get them is that the KSA and the religious figures loyal to it would turn the vast majority of the muslim world against China thus the US would score a major point against China and even Iran would get nothing from it because let's get real what difference would 24 fighters do against the number one military in the world that is the US!

in the end I would say no kind of aircrafts would be enough against a military like that of the US, especially not in small numbers of just few dozens, the only way for Iran to ensure it's safety is for them make their own nuclear bomb.

Thank you for your great analysis.
Disregard the resident know it all.

 

[Sineva]

Pretty much sums up my opinion of this thread.......