China Economy Set for ‘Hard Landing’ in 2012, Shilling Says

[below_freezing]

Exports constitute 40% of your GDP and you just imports raw material, equipment, and intermediate inputs and assemble them into a final product and export them. Most products that have the tag “Made in china” are just “assembled in China”. Unlike west, China is not counted as a country that is high tech.

Yes, you enjoy advantage over Philippines, not because of infrastructure and labour productivity, but because of your size and network. Infrastructure and labour productivity are recent phenomena. Your economy grew, hence you Infrastructure got better. It is not the other way around

Again, let us not compare India with China. This thread is about China

We are discussing about high tech/value products and not about how technology can reduce cost.

No that is perfectly valid. A computer with vacuum tubes is extremely expensive and would constitute "high value added".

Exports are not 40%. Total trade (that is, exports + imports) is 40%. You clearly do not have the mathematical ability to grasp the concept of "percent". What matters for economic growth is net exports, not total exports.

Economy of the People's Republic of China - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

$7.301 trillion (nominal: 2nd; 2011 est.)
Exports: US$1.581 trillion (2010)
Imports: US$1.327 trillion (2010)

It doesn't matter what China is counted as. They can call China a primitive factor driven economy (like how they call India) for all I care but that wouldn't reduce our patents, scientific publications or number of world class companies like ICBC and Sinopec. If you have a problem, take it up with Ford, which is using Chinese machinery over German machinery for the first time in 20 years

Chinese producer wins Ford's biggest export order - People's Daily Online

or the world, which has Huawei ranked as the #1 telecom hardware company in the world beating Sony-Ericcson and #3 in patents granted

Top gear: China's Huawei outmuscles Swedish rival | Reuters

or take it up with the solar industry, of 9/10 companies are Chinese and 10/10 are Chinese owned.

Did you have a problem with that? Too bad. Your problem is with reality.

 

[Jon Snow]

No its not..... Even if there is a slight slowdown growth rate wont fall bellow 8%. And I sincerely hope for the sake of the world that it does not fall more than that.

 

[Jade]

No that is perfectly valid. A computer with vacuum tubes is extremely expensive and would constitute "high value added".

Exports are not 40%. Total trade (that is, exports + imports) is 40%. You clearly do not have the mathematical ability to grasp the concept of "percent". What matters for economic growth is net exports, not total exports.

Economy of the People's Republic of China - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

$7.301 trillion (nominal: 2nd; 2011 est.)
Exports: US$1.581 trillion (2010)
Imports: US$1.327 trillion (2010)

It doesn't matter what China is counted as. They can call China a primitive factor driven economy (like how they call India) for all I care but that wouldn't reduce our patents, scientific publications or number of world class companies like ICBC and Sinopec. If you have a problem, take it up with Ford, which is using Chinese machinery over German machinery for the first time in 20 years

Chinese producer wins Ford's biggest export order - People's Daily Online

or the world, which has Huawei ranked as the #1 telecom hardware company in the world beating Sony-Ericcson and #3 in patents granted

Top gear: China's Huawei outmuscles Swedish rival | Reuters

or take it up with the solar industry, of 9/10 companies are Chinese and 10/10 are Chinese owned.

Did you have a problem with that? Too bad. Your problem is with reality.

This is not me saying about 40% of GDP being exports

China Exports

As regarding the 'Assembled in China'

http://siteresources.worldbank.org/...97263-1308070314933/PAPER_10_Koopman_Wang.pdf

 

[ChinaToday]

China cabinet economist warns of "deflation" in 2012 | Reuters

you must be very happy look at the smile on your face LOL

 

[below_freezing]

This is not me saying about 40% of GDP being exports

China Exports

As regarding the 'Assembled in China'

http://siteresources.worldbank.org/...97263-1308070314933/PAPER_10_Koopman_Wang.pdf

http://siteresources.worldbank.org/...97263-1308070314933/PAPER_10_Koopman_Wang.pdf

I'm reading the raw data for that site on page 42-43 where it breaks it down into total foreign value added and total domestic value added. The graph has total foreign value added as the 3rd column and total domestic value added as 4th column, using the split method (which is harsher on China; the HIY method gives higher returns on domestic value added).

The data is from 2007, 5 years ago.

Here's the industries, within 2 pages of industries totaling 90, that have lower than 50% domestic value added:

Petroleum and nuclear processing (44.4% domestic)
Synthetic materials (47.7%)
Boats (43.8%)
Power transmission equipment (45.7)
Communication equipment (43.6%)
Radio and Broadcast (39.7%)
Computers (33.9%)
Electronic Components (32.3%)
Home audiovisual systems (32.6%)
Measuring Instruments (44.8%)
Office Equipment (36.5%)

Some facts:

No industry out of 90 has lower than 30% domestic value added.
Only 11/90 have lower than 50% domestic value added.

In 2002, there were several fields with only 10% value added for Chinese industries, like electronic components, etc. They've all gone up in Chinese value added within 5 years to 2007, in some cases tripling, so I would expect in the 5 years since 2007, Chinese value added would go up even more and strongly reduce the number of fields with below 50% Chinese value added.

 

[Jade]

@ below_freezing

This is another recent paper on China’s High-tech Exports. The paper was published in June 2011. It says 82% of China’s high-tech export content is imported.

http://r-center.grips.ac.jp/gallery/docs/11-05.pdf

 

[below_freezing]

@ below_freezing

This is another recent paper on China’s High-tech Exports. The paper was published in June 2011. It says 82% of China’s high-tech export content is imported.

http://r-center.grips.ac.jp/gallery/docs/11-05.pdf

It is a Japanese article with incomprehensible English and no comprehensive raw data. Thanks for the World Bank article though.

 

[rcrmj]

@ below_freezing

This is another recent paper on China’s High-tech Exports. The paper was published in June 2011. It says 82% of China’s high-tech export content is imported.

http://r-center.grips.ac.jp/gallery/docs/11-05.pdf

Well this contradicts with the fact that China is still under western strict embargo of high tech goods... Again naive people only believing stuffs that without any solid facts and figures