China Economy Set for ‘Hard Landing’ in 2012, Shilling Says

[rcrmj]

Why you mad though?

am I..? you can translate them if you want

 

[Jade]

You don't know what a bubble is.

The index of values in 100 major cities compiled by the China Index Academy found that average prices in the Shanghai area are down about 40% from their peak in mid-2009, to about $176,000 for a 1,000-square-foot home. If this is not property bubble, than what is. The property sector in China accounts for about one-fifth of China's economic output.

The nonperforming asset ratio was 5 times higher in 1994-2002 and China didn't crash then.

According to your own agency, the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC), the NPA was around $340 billion, while S&P puts the figure around $700 billion. This was for the year 2005. At that time Chinese GDP was 2.2 trillion. Now Chinese GDP is $ 7 trillion and assuming a proportionate growth in NPA. The NPA should be around 2.1 trillion.

South Korea and Germany are far more dependent on exports. Net exports are a net drain on Chinese growth.

It is foolish to compare Chinese economy to advanced economies such as South Korea or Germany. While South Korea and Germany produce value added and high-end products, Chinese produced low-end products that depend on cheap labour. Low end products have high demand elasticity as compared high-end products.

China has very little consumer debt.

ParaPundit: Low Consumer Debt In China

One Big Difference Between Chinese and American Households: Debt - Forbes

Savings were at 50%, they should be declining.

According to some estimates Chinese consumer credit is has high as 120% of your GDP. Over all taking into account NPA, government debt and consumer credit, Chinese debt is 160% of your GDP

China's Debt Is 160% Of Its GDP--Just Like Greece - Forbes

Pollution is not a factor because it will stimulate GDP and technological development to cure the diseases and clean the air; this stimulation can only happen in countries with high human capital that can independently develop these methods as opposed to importing them from foreign sources.

The cost of pollution is China is 2% of GDP annually to reverse every year. It means that if your GDP growth rate is 9.5%, the real effect is only 7.5%

The Cost of Pollution in China

Corruption is far more severe in India.

This is not the thread to discuss about India. Corruption in China is as bad as in India. The difference is that Corruption in India is at lower level, while in China is at the higher level. If you don’t believe, go to Shanghai and see for yourself, how lavishly your government officials live.

Inefficient may be more equitable. The allocation of billions of dollars to a tiny elite while 40% of India is stunted due to malnutrition may be highly efficient in terms of economics but if that happened in China there would be a revolution.

Again, this is not the thread to discuss about India. Anyway, the inefficiencies in China stem from your government allocation, while in India it is because of Capitalism. Inefficiencies in capitalism is self-correcting, while inefficiencies arising from central allocation is not.

 

[jetti]

Sitting in a bullock cart that kills people on a daily basis and laughing at an HSR that had one major accident in four years makes you look stupid.

show me 1 instance where a bullock cart has killed people .. please..

 

[Roybot]

China cabinet economist warns of "deflation" in 2012 | Reuters

(Reuters) - China's headline consumer price index (CPI) is on track to fall on a month-to-month basis in the coming months and mark a year-on-year decline in the second half of 2012, a government economist said in comments published on Friday.

 

[Götterdämmerung]

show me 1 instance where a bullock cart has killed people .. please..

Have you ever heard of metaphor?

 

[Roybot]

Chinese exports slump for second month in a row - Need to know - Macleans.ca

For the second month in a row, Chinese exports have slumped in the face of declining demand in key markets such as Europe and the United States. Data from the Chinese government shows the country’s export index has dropped to 46.9 from 48.6 in the previous month.

 

[below_freezing]

The index of values in 100 major cities compiled by the China Index Academy found that average prices in the Shanghai area are down about 40% from their peak in mid-2009, to about $176,000 for a 1,000-square-foot home. If this is not property bubble, than what is. The property sector in China accounts for about one-fifth of China's economic output.



According to your own agency, the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC), the NPA was around $340 billion, while S&P puts the figure around $700 billion. This was for the year 2005. At that time Chinese GDP was 2.2 trillion. Now Chinese GDP is $ 7 trillion and assuming a proportionate growth in NPA. The NPA should be around 2.1 trillion.



It is foolish to compare Chinese economy to advanced economies such as South Korea or Germany. While South Korea and Germany produce value added and high-end products, Chinese produced low-end products that depend on cheap labour. Low end products have high demand elasticity as compared high-end products.



According to some estimates Chinese consumer credit is has high as 120% of your GDP. Over all taking into account NPA, government debt and consumer credit, Chinese debt is 160% of your GDP

China's Debt Is 160% Of Its GDP--Just Like Greece - Forbes



The cost of pollution is China is 2% of GDP annually to reverse every year. It means that if your GDP growth rate is 9.5%, the real effect is only 7.5%

The Cost of Pollution in China




This is not the thread to discuss about India. Corruption in China is as bad as in India. The difference is that Corruption in India is at lower level, while in China is at the higher level. If you don’t believe, go to Shanghai and see for yourself, how lavishly your government officials live.



Again, this is not the thread to discuss about India. Anyway, the inefficiencies in China stem from your government allocation, while in India it is because of Capitalism. Inefficiencies in capitalism is self-correcting, while inefficiencies arising from central allocation is not.

A bubble has mispricing, but also HIGH LEVERAGE. Chinese pay 20% downpayment for first house, 50% for 2nd, 100% for 3rd. The housing price can go down 20% and the banks would not be affected at all, and I suspect it can even go down 50% and the banks wouldn't be scratched.

The rate of NPA went down.

Opposite. Germany and South Korea make things that you can live without with. China holds upstream capabilities like steel, chemical fiber, machine tools, rare earths refining and energy technologies. The downstream cannot survive without the upstream. 9 out of top 10 solar companies are all Chinese, and the remaining is Canadian, but owned by a Chinese.

if you take into account NPA/government debt/household debt which would be total liabilities, US debt is over 50 trillion dollars and the other countries would all be in the 200-300% range. China being below 200% is actually very low in total liabilities. In addition, most of this debt is internal. We can just print money and there's nothing anyone can do about it.

Wrong, the 2% does not factor in the amount of productivity and investment that pollution stimulates in the renewables industry.

LMAO convicted criminals sit on Parliament in India. How many NPC members are under investigation for violent crime? India is corrupt high to low. It isn't the low level babus that put trillions in Swiss banks, it isn't the low level babus that block investment, its all on high. Shanghai isn't even the richest city in China, it doesn't have the most government officials, yet it looks nice. Looking nice =/= corrupt, no corrupt official rides the subway lmao.

Inefficiencies in capitalism indeed self correct; India will have a revolution and redistribute the wealth from the billionaires to those 40% who are starving.

China cabinet economist warns of "deflation" in 2012 | Reuters

Deflation is exactly what China needs. It would be highly stimulating to China's consumer market.

 

[Jade]

A bubble has mispricing, but also HIGH LEVERAGE. Chinese pay 20% downpayment for first house, 50% for 2nd, 100% for 3rd. The housing price can go down 20% and the banks would not be affected at all, and I suspect it can even go down 50% and the banks wouldn't be scratched.

The rate of NPA went down.

Opposite. Germany and South Korea make things that you can live without with. China holds upstream capabilities like steel, chemical fiber, machine tools, rare earths refining and energy technologies. The downstream cannot survive without the upstream. 9 out of top 10 solar companies are all Chinese, and the remaining is Canadian, but owned by a Chinese.

if you take into account NPA/government debt/household debt which would be total liabilities, US debt is over 50 trillion dollars and the other countries would all be in the 200-300% range. China being below 200% is actually very low in total liabilities. In addition, most of this debt is internal. We can just print money and there's nothing anyone can do about it.

Wrong, the 2% does not factor in the amount of productivity and investment that pollution stimulates in the renewables industry.

LMAO convicted criminals sit on Parliament in India. How many NPC members are under investigation for violent crime? India is corrupt high to low. It isn't the low level babus that put trillions in Swiss banks, it isn't the low level babus that block investment, its all on high. Shanghai isn't even the richest city in China, it doesn't have the most government officials, yet it looks nice. Looking nice =/= corrupt, no corrupt official rides the subway lmao.

Inefficiencies in capitalism indeed self correct; India will have a revolution and redistribute the wealth from the billionaires to those 40% who are starving.



Deflation is exactly what China needs. It would be highly stimulating to China's consumer market.

Your property sector accounts for about one-fifth of China's economic output, What would happen if your one-fifth of economic output is deflated by 40%? Will it not have negative effect on your GDP?

On the contrary your NPA went up. How do you think your GDP is growing when Europe and US are under recession? And where does the money comes from? The only way China could maintain its GDP growth is by creating artificial investment opportunities and financing them by loans from your national banks. These all add to your NPA.

Chinese products are depended on cost; you manufacture them cheap, while products from Germany are based on technology. It is much easier to replace cost than technology. I just go to Philippines that would provide me with better cost than China. The same cannot be said of high tech products.

Let us not compare US debt to China’s. 160% of GDP as a debt is a serious issue.

As regarding corruption, there is not much difference between China and India

Renewable Industry is miniscule. 2% negative effect on you GDP was calculated by the World Bank. Even if we forget the pollution’s effect on your GDP, what about the negative effect on the health of your population?

Adam Smith’s ‘invisible hand’ works in capitalism and not in a command economy

 

[northeast]

sorry，but chinese is much healthier than indian.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Adam Smith’s ‘invisible hand’ works in capitalism and not in a command economy

Except that we are not a command economy. The label that most international sources use is "State capitalism", though we call it Socialism with Chinese characteristics.

According to the IMF, China's debt-to-GDP ratio is 33%.

According to the IMF, India's debt-to-GDP ratio is 72%.

List of countries by public debt - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[siegecrossbow]

Well we've only got 10 more months to see if this would happen or not.

 

[below_freezing]

Chinese products are depended on cost; you manufacture them cheap, while products from Germany are based on technology. It is much easier to replace cost than technology. I just go to Philippines that would provide me with better cost than China. The same cannot be said of high tech products.

Adam Smith’s ‘invisible hand’ works in capitalism and not in a command economy

Depends on what product. We have low end to high end. Huawei and ZTE telecom gear is similarly priced to others around the world, it sells because it has 20000 patents behind it. High speed rail with over 500 patents behind it is something that not even the US can do. China's maglev technology is 3rd in the world.

Cost depends on infrastructure and labor productivity. Philippines does not have that infrastructure nor does it have productive labor.

The wages of Indians are 1/6th that of Chinese, but they are not productive because feeble 40% malnutritioned and illiterate Indians cannot compete with Chinese who eat some of the most food in the world and have a top tier education.

Cost also depends on technology. It is much more expensive to build a computer with vacuum tubes than integrated circuits. It does not mean integrated circuits are lower tech than vacuum tubes. You cannot lower cost on 1950's technology and this is where your cost fallacy comes in again. Yes, people can try to manufacture in Africa or India, but it would be 100x more expensive because labor is only 10% of the final added value. For upstream, capital intensive basic industries like steel (China controls 50% of the world market), chemical fiber (43%) and rare earths (90%) the whole purpose of technology is to increase processing throughput and reduce unit cost.

 

[Aramsogo]

Jade above pulls out every single sinophobic canard there is in the self-delusional Indian press.
No Matter, China will outperform India for the rest of my natural life (my grandfather lived to over 100).

Here's comes the myth de-bunking. Some Russian already did it:

Top 10 Sinophobe Myths | Sublime Oblivion

I'm on my iPhone, can someone please re-post the above link for our Indian friends.

 

[Jade]

Depends on what product. We have low end to high end. Huawei and ZTE telecom gear is similarly priced to others around the world, it sells because it has 20000 patents behind it. High speed rail with over 500 patents behind it is something that not even the US can do. China's maglev technology is 3rd in the world.

Cost depends on infrastructure and labor productivity. Philippines does not have that infrastructure nor does it have productive labor.

The wages of Indians are 1/6th that of Chinese, but they are not productive because feeble 40% malnutritioned and illiterate Indians cannot compete with Chinese who eat some of the most food in the world and have a top tier education.

Cost also depends on technology. It is much more expensive to build a computer with vacuum tubes than integrated circuits. It does not mean integrated circuits are lower tech than vacuum tubes. You cannot lower cost on 1950's technology and this is where your cost fallacy comes in again. Yes, people can try to manufacture in Africa or India, but it would be 100x more expensive because labor is only 10% of the final added value. For upstream, capital intensive basic industries like steel (China controls 50% of the world market), chemical fiber (43%) and rare earths (90%) the whole purpose of technology is to increase processing throughput and reduce unit cost.

Exports constitute 40% of your GDP and you just imports raw material, equipment, and intermediate inputs and assemble them into a final product and export them. Most products that have the tag “Made in china” are just “assembled in China”. Unlike west, China is not counted as a country that is high tech.

http://siteresources.worldbank.org/...97263-1308070314933/PAPER_10_Koopman_Wang.pdf

Yes, you enjoy advantage over Philippines, not because of infrastructure and labour productivity, but because of your size and network. Infrastructure and labour productivity are recent phenomena. Your economy grew, hence you Infrastructure got better. It is not the other way around

Again, let us not compare India with China. This thread is about China

We are discussing about high tech/value products and not about how technology can reduce cost.

 

[Birbal]

I do think the Chinese government is being too aggressive in trying to control inflation and needs to be careful to avoid causing too much deflation, which would risk economic stagnation.

But I don't see how "less than 6% growth" should be considered a "hard landing".