GDP surges by 11.9% amid fears of overheating
* Source: Global Times
* [04:47 April 16 2010]
* Comments
By Yin Hang
The country's economic growth rate surged to 11.9 percent in the first quarter of the year, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced Thursday, prompting fears of an overheated economy and qestions regarding the withdrawal of the massive stimulus package.
The gross domestic product (GDP) in the first three months totaled 8.07 trillion yuan ($1.19 trillion), the NBS said, attributing the fastest quarterly rate of expansion since 2007 to last year's low comparison base and the government's stimulus.
"China's economy welcomed a strong start at the beginning of the year, showing that overall economic development is rising in full swing," Li Xiaochao, the NBS spokesman, said Thursday.
The surge in economic growth was up from just over 6 percent in the same quarter a year ago and up 10.7 percent in the final
quarter of 2009. It was supported by a 19.6 percent rise in industrial output over a year earlier, a 25.6 percent jump in investment in factories and other fixed assets, and, most controversially, a 35.1 percent leap in investment in the real estate market, the NBS said.
"The growth rate surpasses 10 percent. It can be seen as an indication of overheating," said Tian Yun, vice president of the China Macro Economics Institute, adding that the growth momentum was not largely generated from just the market.
Zhuang Jian, senior macroeconomics officer with the Asian Development Bank, however, was reluctant to draw a conclusion of overheating.
"Last year's GDP figure, when the economy was reeling from the world financial downturn, established a low baseline for comparison. The ratcheting up of investment and large domestic demand drove up the figure. The figure gives no hint of an economy overheating at all," Zhuang said.
Asian growth
The figures China unveiled cap a good week for the Asian economy. Singapore's economy grew by 13.1 percent, its fastest rate in at least 35 years, in the first three months of 2010. The Bank of Korea raised its economic growth expectations on April 9 to a rise of 5.2 percent in 2010, compared with its central bank's anticipated 4.6 percent expansion in December.
In the wake of the GDP growth spurt, however, Singapore revalued its currency to head off inflation after year-on-year economic growth surged.
The revaluation may prompt policymakers in China, Indonesia and South Korea to start withdrawing monetary stimulus as economic growth in the region outpaces the rest of the world, according to Bloomberg.
In response to the speculation, NBS spokesman Li said it is necessary to retain the consistency and stability of China's macroeconomic policies, despite the stimulus package spurring economic growth.
"China still faces uncertainties amid the recovery of the world economy. The domestic economy is facing many obstacles and problems," Li cautioned, and hinted that the stimulus package will not be withdrawn temporarily with challenges such as heavy drought still facing China.
Wei Fengchun, a macroeconomic analyst with Beijing-based CITIC Securities, explained how economic development mode transformation may be in need of the government stimulus.
"Outward-oriented economic development may come to an end, and China's economic development will have to turn to rely on inward momentumsupporting," Wei told the Shanghai Securities News.
Economists predicted that, unlike the trend of last year, the GDP growth will start the year soaring gradually shrink in the second and third quarters.
Li Xunlei, deputy chairman of the Research Institute of Guotai Junan Securities, insisted that to raise the interest rates is not necessary considering the GDP is likely to shrink in the next three quarters.
"The GDP has hit its highest point now. I believe it will fall in the upcoming three quarters, when the raised interest rate may hurt the stability of the economy," Li told hexun.com.
Zhuang, by contrast, argues that pressure on raising interest rates will be intensified, leading to higher inflation.
Currency questions
By way of contributing more to pulling the world back from recession, some economists suggested a prompt revaluation of China's currency.
"The yuan's stability and China's stimulus package made an enormous contribution to global stability in the aftermath of the crisis," said Glenn Maguire of Societe Generale in Hong Kong. "But now that China's economy is growing by 12 percent, it's time for China to share some of that growth with the rest of the world via appreciating its exchange rate."
The commerce ministry promptly rebuked this suggestion, arguing that the US is pressuring China to reevaluate its currency out of self-interest.
"Do not let the yuan's exchange rate issue become the scapegoat of US domestic economic problems, including its unemployment," said Yao Jian, ministry spokesman.
China will keep the yuan stable, not only to help exporters weather the world economic downturn, but also to check the inflow of hot money, Yao said.
Yao sounded a cautious note on the outlook for China's exports. Net exports shaved 1.2 percentage points off first-quarter headline growth of 11.9 percent, year-on-year.
"External demand has not shown a clear rebound, which is expected to lead to a slow recovery in China's exports," Yao said.
Liang Chen and agencies contributed to this story.
PBOC pledges to curb soaring housing prices
(Xinhua)
Updated: 2010-04-16 23:27
BEIJING - The People's Bank of China, the central bank, said late Friday it would strictly implement the State Council's policies to rein in rapidly climbing property prices.
In a statement posted on its website, the central bank said it had urged all its branches and subsidiaries to enhance risk management in granting housing mortgages and to strictly carry out measures announced by the State Council on Thursday after an executive meeting.
The Cabinet announced a series of steps to make it more expensive for people to take out mortgages on investment properties, including raising mortgage rates and down payment requirements.
The Cabinet's move came one day after the statistics authorities said China's property prices in 70 major cities rose 11.7 percent in March year on year, compared with February's 10.7 percent reading.
Earlier Friday, the country's banking regulator urged banks to take market and regional disparities into consideration when deciding home loan interest rates.