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India is the only country that become superpower in 2012 and two yrs on become poor country. No country can match this record even china. I dare china to beat this record.
 
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India is the only country that become superpower in 2012 and two yrs on become poor country. No country can match this record even china. I dare china to beat this record.

Why would China want this record? I don't think so. India can keep this record.
 
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India is the only country that become superpower in 2012 and two yrs on become poor country. No country can match this record even china. I dare china to beat this record.
T'is indeed a great achievement by India. Congratulations to my Indian friends. :cheers:
 
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坚持稳中求进工作总基调,坚持以提高经济发展质量和效益为中心,主动适应经济发展新常态,保持经济运行在合理区间,把转方式调结构放到更加重要位置,狠抓改革攻坚,突出创新驱动,强化风险防控,加强民生保障,促进经济平稳健康发展和社会和谐稳定。
  2015年经济工作五项任务:
  ①努力保持经济稳定增长;坚持宏观政策要稳、微观政策要活、社会政策要托底的总体思路,保持宏观政策连续性和稳定性,继续实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策。
  ②积极发现培育新增长点;一是市场要活;二是创新要实,推动全面创新;三是政策要宽;
  ③加快转变农业发展方式;完善农村土地经营权流转政策,搞好土地承包经营权确权登记颁证工作,健全公开规范的土地流转市场。
  ④优化经济发展空间格局;重点实施“一带一路”、京津冀协同发展、长江经济带三大战略;
  ⑤加强保障和改善民生工作;因地制宜发展特色经济,加大对基本公共服务和扶贫济困工作的支持力度。
  把握新常态9要点
  ①模仿型排浪式消费阶段基本结束,个性化、多样化消费渐成主流;
  ②基础设施互联互通和一些新技术、新产品、新业态、新商业模式的投资机会大量涌现;
  ③我国低成本比较优势发生了转化,高水平引进来、大规模走出去正在同步发生;
  ④新兴产业、服务业、小微企业作用更凸显,生产小型化、智能化、专业化将成产业组织新特征;
  ⑤人口老龄化日趋发展,农业富余人口减少,要素规模驱动力减弱,经济增长将更多依靠人力资本质量和技术进步;
  ⑥市场竞争逐步转向质量型、差异化为主的竞争。
  ⑦环境承载能力已达到或接近上限,必须推动形成绿色低碳循环发展新方式;
  ⑧经济风险总体可控,但化解以高杠杆和泡沫化为主要特征的各类风险将持续一段时间;
  ⑨既要全面化解产能过剩,也要通过发挥市场机制作用探索未来产业发展方向。
  8个“更加注重”
  ①更加注重满足人民群众需要;
  ②更加注重市场和消费心理分析;
  ③更加注重引导社会预期;
  ④更加注重加强产权和知识产权保护;
  ⑤更加注重发挥企业家才能;
  ⑥更加注重加强教育和提升人力资本素质。
  ⑦更加注重建设生态文明;
  ⑧更加注重科技进步和全面创新;
  谈改革:
  ①要加快行政审批、投资、价格、垄断行业、特许经营、政府购买服务、资本市场、民营银行准入、对外投资等领域改革,使改革举措有效转化成发展动力。
  ②要尊重和发挥地方、基层、群众首创精神,从实践中寻找最佳方案。
  ③推进国企改革要奔着问题去,以增强企业活力、提高效率为中心,提高国企核心竞争力,建立产权清晰、权责明确、政企分开、管理科学的现代企业制度。
  谈对外开放:
  ①必须更加积极地促进内需和外需平衡、进口和出口平衡、引进外资和对外投资平衡,逐步实现国际收支基本平衡;
  ②扩大出口和增加进口政策,提高贸易便利化水平,巩固出口市场份额
  ③改善投资环境,扩大服务业市场准入,进一步开放制造业,推广上海自由贸易试验区经验,稳定外商投资规模和速度,提高引进外资质量
  ④促进基础设施互联互通,推动优势产业走出去,开展先进技术合作,稳步推进人民币国际化
  立足社会主义初级阶段基本国情,毫不动摇坚持以经济建设为中心,一心一意谋发展,咬定青山不放松,把我们自己的事办好!(注:全篇一字未提房地产)

解读中央经济工作会议:积极财政政策 稳健货币政策||人民日报||###||2014年12月12日 05:17
认识新常态 适应新常态 引领新常态
――专家解读中央经济工作会议
亮点 准确把握经济发展新常态
经济发展进入新常态,正从高速增长转向中高速增长,经济发展方式正从规模速度型粗放增长转向质量效率型集约增长,经济结构正从增量扩能为主转向调整存量、做优增量并存的深度调整,经济发展动力正从传统增长点转向新的增长点
“会议用这么大篇幅全面、系统、深刻地阐述经济新常态,是因为我国经济正处于发展方式转变、发展动力转换的新形势、新时期,必须要统一大家的认识,转变观念。只有深刻认识新常态,才能适应新常态。只有思想和行动统一,才能增强加快转变经济发展方式的自觉性和主动性。”国务院发展研究中心原副主任侯云春认为。
“对当前的经济形势,社会各界有不同的认识和看法,这次会议对新常态进行深入分析,就是要统一大家的认识。”国家发改委国土开发与地区经济研究所所长肖金成也这么认为,“目前我国经济体量已经很庞大,维持中高速增长能保证就业,因此调控空间比较大。我国经济有巨大韧性、潜力和回旋余地,这正是结构调整,提质增效的好时机。”
“我国经济运行处在合理区间,即使是7%左右的增长,无论是速度还是体量,在全球也是名列前茅的。”复旦大学经济学院副院长孙立坚认为,“目前,经济发展动力正从传统增长点转向新的增长点,将更多依靠人力资本质量和技术进步,依靠创新驱动发展。总的来看,经济增长更趋平稳,增长动力更为多元。”
“经济发展进入新常态,没有改变我国发展仍处于可以大有作为的重要战略机遇期的判断,改变的是重要战略机遇期的内涵和条件。没有改变我国经济发展总体向好的基本面,改变的是经济发展方式和经济结构。”孙立坚对此非常认同。
亮点积极的财政政策 稳健的货币政策
保持稳增长和调结构之间平衡。继续实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策。积极的财政政策要有力度,货币政策要更加注重松紧适度
“2015年,中国继续实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策,这一宏观经济政策‘组合’将是连续第五年实施。虽然政策名称不变,但在经济新常态下,实际内容和实施的重点将会有所变化。”中国社科院财经战略研究院院长高培勇表示,积极的财政政策要有力度,货币政策要更加注重松紧适度,就是这对“老搭档”的新内涵。
高培勇认为,实施积极的财政政策,主基调是扩张性的,财政赤字将有所增加,在这方面我们具备较大的空间。按明年经济增长7%来计算,赤字率不超过3%,2015年赤字空间在1.9万亿左右。2014年财政赤字安排是1.35万亿元,因此明年的财政政策可以更“积极”一些。
“不过,全面刺激政策的边际效果正明显递减。”高培勇强调,明年无论是加大投资还是推进结构调整,都应把重点放在改善民生上。
孙立坚也认为,在财政支出方面,应进一步向民生领域倾斜,通过民生改善提振消费。同时,应加大对中小微企业的减税力度,提升企业盈利能力。
“当前经济下行压力较大,另一方面,影子银行、地方融资平台、房地产等领域的潜在风险也不容忽视,去杠杆、防风险是一项中长期任务。因此货币政策需要平衡好短期稳增长和中长期控制风险之间的关系。”交通银行首席经济学家连平说,“所谓松紧适度,就是货币政策要根据经济金融形势变化保持灵活性,该紧的时候适度收紧,经济运行面临困难和挑战时,可以在稳健的基调下适度向松的方向微调。”
高培勇表示,目前就业相对良好,物价基本稳定。货币政策实施的重点,可以更多地放在营造有利于大众创业、市场主体创新的环境以及防范金融风险和重大改革推进上。
亮点 积极发现培育新增长点
我国存在大量新的增长点,潜力巨大。发现和培育新的增长点,一是市场要活,主要靠市场发现和培育新的增长点。二是创新要实,推动全面创新,更多靠产业化的创新来培育和形成新的增长点。三是政策要宽,营造有利于大众创业、市场主体创新的政策环境和制度环境
“会议明确提出‘积极发现培育新增长点’,这个目标与新常态定位是一致的,要完成经济发展动力转换,最为直接的体现就是要有以创新、技术、质量为内涵的新增长点来代替过去的经济增长点。”中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院执行院长刘元春认为,“这种经济增长点的形成要通过制度改革放松管制,拓展市场空间,形成大众创业、万众创新的新局面,同时还要利用政府这只‘看得见的手’,积极提供公共服务,在一些核心技术和核心产业领域实施赶超战略。”
“随着我国技术发展从‘跟跑’到‘领跑’,靠政府来挖掘和培育新兴产业的路子越来越走不通。”孙立坚认为,“在发现和培育新的增长点的过程中,要确保政府‘不越位’,使市场在资源配置中起决定性作用,主要靠市场发现和培育新的增长点。不过,政府也得‘不缺位’,必须要加快转变职能,在创造更好市场竞争环境,培育市场化的创新机制上更有作为。”
“‘培育新增长点’不仅是结构性改革的落脚点,也是我国全面摆脱‘三期叠加’风险的最重要方法之一,将它作为中国经济增长政策的核心,可以使明年经济工作定位更明确。”刘元春表示。
亮点 优化经济发展空间格局
要重点实施“一带一路”、京津冀协同发展、长江经济带三大战略。要通过改革创新打破地区封锁和利益藩篱,全面提高资源配置效率
“区域经济协调发展,不仅可以缩小东中西部的区域差距,而且可以减少能源资源从西部转移到东部的成本,也可以减少人员大量流动带来的社会成本。”中国国际经济交流中心常务副理事长郑新立认为,“京津冀协同发展的推进,可以缩小北京、天津与河北周边地区发展的差距,并实现不同地区的产业和功能分工。‘一带一路’战略的实施,将加强我国与周边国家的基础设施建设与互联互通,有利于促进我国与周边国家的贸易和投资,对化解我国过剩产能也有积极意义。此外,还可以使我国西部地区变身为开放前沿,非常有利于发展。”
侯云春认为:“‘一带一路’、京津冀协同发展、长江经济带三大战略,是我国培育新的增长极、增长带,形成对外开放新格局的大手笔、大举措,是经济新常态的重要战略支撑。成功实施这三大战略,将使我国经济发展和对外开放站上新高度,获得新动力,拓展新空间,形成新格局,具有重要的现实意义和深远的战略意义。”
“‘一带一路’是我国提出并主导的新的国际合作框架,通过丝绸之路经济带和21世纪海上丝绸之路促进国际区域合作。同时,国际区域合作要依托国内区域合作。长江经济带横贯东中西,向东面向海洋,与21世纪海上丝绸之路相连接,向西通过亚欧大陆桥与中亚、欧洲相连接,通过孟中印缅经济走廊与南亚和印度洋相连接,有利于统筹东中西部,通过国内区域合作,推动国际区域合作,建成跨越亚欧,连接三洋的丝绸之路经济带。”肖金成表示。
亮点 加快推进改革开放
要敢于啃硬骨头,敢于涉险滩,敢于过深水区,加快推进经济体制改革
“在全球经济陷入后金融危机的低迷之际,利用结构性改革走出困局已经成为世界各国的共识。谁能够在未来新一轮全球竞争中取得先机取决于各国结构性改革是否彻底、是否更符合经济发展趋势。中国经济体制改革有助于实现中华民族伟大复兴的中国梦。”刘元春说。
“当前,我国要围绕解决发展面临的突出问题推进改革,推出既具有年度特点、又有利于长远制度安排的改革举措。尤其是在行政审批、投资、价格、垄断行业、特许经营、政府购买服务、资本市场、民营银行准入、对外投资等领域改革要推出具体有力的改革举措,并加强政策落实。”郑新立认为。
“要尽可能取消和下放行政审批权,给予市场主体更大的决策权。在投资方面,要尽快推进负面清单措施,‘法无禁止皆可为’。此外,大力推进政府和社会资本合作模式(PPP),鼓励社会资本投资基础设施和公共服务领域,给予民营企业在一些公共服务行业的特许经营权,并通过政府购买服务形式提供一些公共服务。这对打破行业垄断、稳定经济增长、提高增长效益、保障民生都有十分积极的意义。”郑新立说。
建立多层次资本市场、放开民营银行准入,意义也十分重大。融资难、融资贵是我国当前中小微企业发展面临的突出难题,建立多层次资本市场,拓宽股市、债市等直接融资渠道;同时放开民营银行的准入、打破银行业垄断,可以显著降低企业融资成本。“随着金融监管政策的完善和存款保险制度的推出,放开民营银行准入,已经具备了条件。”郑新立说。
“打破传统利益结构,重构发展的激励体系,全面纠正我们在建设市场经济进程中所面临的各种扭曲,这次改革的深度和力度很大。”刘元春说。
亮点 构建开放型经济新体制
更加积极地促进内需和外需平衡、进口和出口平衡、引进外资和对外投资平衡,逐步实现国际收支基本平衡,构建开放型经济新体制
今年以来,随着“一带一路”战略的推进,一系列自贸区谈判取得突破性进展,我国对外开放新格局正在形成,开放型经济新体制正在构建。
“从内需和外需平衡方面看,时下内需比较疲弱,导致进口增速放缓。”连平说。
在进口和出口平衡方面,当前我国经常项下的顺差占GDP的比重已回落至国际公认的合理水平4%以下。“数量上的平衡是一个结果,新常态下我们更要追求进出口质量。出口方面,我们要继续维持出口大国的地位,加速出口结构转型升级,从低端劳动力制造,向质量、技术、品牌升级,再创国际竞争新优势。进口方面,要进口更多的先进技术设备,促进国内经济转型,进口更多优质商品,满足国内消费升级的需要。”国务院发展研究中心党组成员、办公厅主任隆国强说。
在引进外资和对外投资平衡方面,“过去利用外资,主要着眼于保就业和增强出口竞争力。新常态下,吸引外资为的是外商带来的技术、管理、品牌、渠道、研发和服务等‘生产要素包’。我们对外投资,早期是为了出口,现在越来越多的是为获得技术、品牌和海外销售渠道。”隆国强说。
连平认为:“如今资本双向流动的格局已初步形成,明年我国可能成为直接投资净输出国。随着QFII、RQFII、QDII的额度不断增加以及沪港通的实施,证券投资项下也将逐步呈现双向流动的格局。”
“国际收支平衡是宏观调控的重要目标之一。”连平认为,未来促进国际收支平衡的重点是采取各项举措推动内需增长,逐步缩小贸易顺差;稳步推进资本和金融账户的开放和人民币资本项下可兑换,促进我国国际收支走向更为合理和健康的平衡。


中央定调明年经济工作:稳中求进 主动适应新常态 ||中国证券报||###||2014年12月12日 02:28
  中央经济工作会议12月9日至11日在北京举行。
  会议认为,科学认识当前形势,准确研判未来走势,必须历史地、辩证地认识我国经济发展的阶段性特征,准确把握经济发展新常态。
  我国经济正在向形态更高级、分工更复杂、结构更合理的阶段演化,经济发展进入新常态,正从高速增长转向中高速增长,经济发展方式正从规模速度型粗放增长转向质量效率型集约增长,经济结构正从增量扩能为主转向调整存量、做优增量并存的深度调整,经济发展动力正从传统增长点转向新的增长点。认识新常态,适应新常态,引领新常态,是当前和今后一个时期我国经济发展的大逻辑。
  会议要求,面对我国经济发展新常态,观念上要适应,认识上要到位,方法上要对路,工作上要得力。要深化理解、统一认识,把思想和行动统一到中央认识和判断上来,增强加快转变经济发展方式的自觉性和主动性。要坚持发展、主动作为。经济发展进入新常态,没有改变我国发展仍处于可以大有作为的重要战略机遇期的判断,改变的是重要战略机遇期的内涵和条件;没有改变我国经济发展总体向好的基本面,改变的是经济发展方式和经济结构。要更加注重满足人民群众需要,更加注重市场和消费心理分析,更加注重引导社会预期,更加注重加强产权和知识产权保护,更加注重发挥企业家才能,更加注重加强教育和提升人力资本素质,更加注重建设生态文明,更加注重科技进步和全面创新。
  会议指出,2015年是全面深化改革的关键之年,是全面推进依法治国的开局之年,也是全面完成“十二五”规划的收官之年,做好经济工作意义重大。总体要求是:全面贯彻党的十八大和十八届三中、四中全会精神,以邓小平理论、“三个代表”重要思想、科学发展观为指导,坚持稳中求进工作总基调,坚持以提高经济发展质量和效益为中心,主动适应经济发展新常态,保持经济运行在合理区间,把转方式调结构放到更加重要位置,狠抓改革攻坚,突出创新驱动,强化风险防控,加强民生保障,促进经济平稳健康发展和社会和谐稳定。
  会议提出了明年经济工作的主要任务。
  一、努力保持经济稳定增长。关键是保持稳增长和调结构之间平衡,坚持宏观政策要稳、微观政策要活、社会政策要托底的总体思路,保持宏观政策连续性和稳定性,继续实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策。积极的财政政策要有力度,货币政策要更加注重松紧适度。要促进“三驾马车”更均衡地拉动增长。要切实把经济工作的着力点放到转方式调结构上来,推进新型工业化、信息化、城镇化、农业现代化同步发展,逐步增强战略性新兴产业和服务业的支撑作用,着力推动传统产业向中高端迈进。要高度关注风险发生发展趋势,按照严控增量、区别对待、分类施策、逐步化解的原则,有序加以化解。
  二、积极发现培育新增长点。我国存在大量新的增长点,潜力巨大。发现和培育新的增长点,一是市场要活,使市场在资源配置中起决定性作用,主要靠市场发现和培育新的增长点。二是创新要实,推动全面创新,更多靠产业化的创新来培育和形成新的增长点,创新必须落实到创造新的增长点上,把创新成果变成实实在在的产业活动。三是政策要宽,营造有利于大众创业、市场主体创新的政策环境和制度环境,政府要加快转变职能,创造更好市场竞争环境,培育市场化的创新机制,在保护产权、维护公平、改善金融支持、强化激励机制、集聚优秀人才等方面积极作为。
  三、加快转变农业发展方式。解决好“三农”问题始终是全党工作重中之重,必须继续夯实农业稳定发展的基础、稳住农村持续向好的局势,稳定粮食和主要农产品(行情,问诊)产量,持续增加农民收入。要坚定不移加快转变农业发展方式,尽快转到数量质量效益并重、注重提高竞争力、注重农业技术创新、注重可持续的集约发展上来,走产出高效、产品安全、资源节约、环境友好的现代农业发展道路。要深化农村各项改革,完善强农惠农政策,完善农产品价格形成机制,完善农业补贴办法,强化金融服务。要完善农村土地经营权流转政策,搞好土地承包经营权确权登记颁证工作,健全公开规范的土地流转市场。要完善职业培训政策,提高培训质量,造就一支适应现代农业发展的高素质职业农民队伍。
  四、优化经济发展空间格局。要完善区域政策,促进各地区协调发展、协同发展、共同发展。西部开发、东北振兴、中部崛起、东部率先的区域发展总体战略,要继续实施。各地区要找准主体功能区定位和自身优势,确定工作着力点。要重点实施“一带一路”、京津冀协同发展、长江经济带三大战略,争取明年有个良好开局。要通过改革创新打破地区封锁和利益藩篱,全面提高资源配置效率。推进城镇化健康发展是优化经济发展空间格局的重要内容,要有历史耐心,不要急于求成。要加快规划体制改革,健全空间规划体系,积极推进市县“多规合一”。要坚持不懈推进节能减排和保护生态环境,既要有立竿见影的措施,更要有可持续的制度安排,坚持源头严防、过程严管、后果严惩,治标治本多管齐下,朝着蓝天净水的目标不断前进。
  五、加强保障和改善民生工作。坚持守住底线、突出重点、完善制度、引导舆论的基本思路,多些雪中送炭,更加注重保障基本民生,更加关注低收入群众生活,更加重视社会大局稳定。做好就业工作,要精准发力,确保完成就业目标。要更好发挥市场在促进就业中的作用,鼓励创业带动就业,提高职业培训质量,加强政府公共就业服务能力。扶贫工作事关全局,全党必须高度重视。要让贫困家庭的孩子都能接受公平的有质量的教育,不要让孩子输在起跑线上。要因地制宜发展特色经济,加大对基本公共服务和扶贫济困工作的支持力度。要更多面向特定人口、具体人口,实现精准脱贫,防止平均数掩盖大多数。
  会议要求,要加快推进改革开放。要敢于啃硬骨头,敢于涉险滩,敢于过深水区,加快推进经济体制改革。要围绕解决发展面临的突出问题推进改革,推出既具有年度特点、又有利于长远制度安排的改革举措,继续抓好各项改革方案制定。要加快行政审批、投资、价格、垄断行业、特许经营、政府购买服务、资本市场、民营银行准入、对外投资等领域改革,使改革举措有效转化成发展动力。要尊重和发挥地方、基层、群众首创精神,从实践中寻找最佳方案。要抓好改革措施落地,狠抓落实,强化责任,加大协调力度。要强化督促评估,落实督办责任制和评估机制,让群众来评价改革成效。推进国企改革要奔着问题去,以增强企业活力、提高效率为中心,提高国企核心竞争力,建立产权清晰、权责明确、政企分开、管理科学的现代企业制度。
  会议要求,面对对外开放出现的新特点,必须更加积极地促进内需和外需平衡、进口和出口平衡、引进外资和对外投资平衡,逐步实现国际收支基本平衡,构建开放型经济新体制。要完善扩大出口和增加进口政策,提高贸易便利化水平,巩固出口市场份额。要改善投资环境,扩大服务业市场准入,进一步开放制造业,推广上海自由贸易试验区经验,稳定外商投资规模和速度,提高引进外资质量。要努力提高对外投资效率和质量,促进基础设施互联互通,推动优势产业走出去,开展先进技术合作,稳步推进人民币国际化。
  会议强调,做好明年经济工作,要立足社会主义初级阶段基本国情,毫不动摇坚持以经济建设为中心,一心一意谋发展,咬定青山不放松,把我们自己的事办好。要精心谋划用好我国经济的巨大韧性、潜力和回旋余地,依靠促改革调结构,坚持不懈推动经济发展提质增效升级,努力做到调速不减势、量增质更优。要合理确定经济社会发展主要预期目标,保持区间调控弹性,稳定和完善宏观经济政策,继续实施定向调控、结构性调控。以政府自身革命带动重要领域改革,以大众创业、万众创新形成发展的新动力。要协调拓展内外需,同步推进新型工业化、信息化、城镇化、农业现代化,加强对实体经济的支持,大力加强生态环境保护,更加重视民生改善和社会建设,切实增强内需对经济增长的拉动力,实施新一轮高水平对外开放,保持经济中高速增长,推动经济发展迈向中高端水平。

China will give more priority to economic upgrading and restructuring in 2015, according to a statement issued on Thursday following a key economic policy meeting.
The country will tap the huge potential of the economy to hedge against great downward pressure next year, the statement said.
The Central Economic Work Conference, which opened on Tuesday and ended on Thursday, set the tone for next year's policy agenda.
While repeating previously used language such as "keeping growth within a reasonable range", the statement spoke of fostering new growth points and making the economy more consumption and service-driven.
"Mass, featureless consumption has basically come to an end and customized consumption is becoming the mainstream," the statement said.
"Infrastructure interconnection, new technology, new products and new business models have enabled massive investment opportunities," the statement said in describing the "new norm".
"New norm" is a phrase used by President Xi Jinping several times recently, reflecting the leadership's drive to wean the economy from dependence on infrastructure investment and exports.
The central bank cut interest rates in November as the nation headed toward its slowest annual growth expansion since 1990.
The statement said China has resilience, huge potential and plenty of room to maneuver on policy. It must make the best use of these advantages.
"China has plenty of room to upgrade its consumption structure. Large disparity exists among regions and urban and rural areas," said Xu Hongcai, a senior researcher at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges.
The statement stressed that China should actively adjust itself to "the new norm" and pursue the quality and efficiency of the economy.
The statement said China will continue to adopt a "prudent" monetary policy and "proactive" fiscal policy. But monetary policy should be neither too tight nor too loose, and fiscal policy should be more "forceful".
Wendy Liu, managing director and head of China equity research at Nomura Securities, said this means that fiscal and monetary policy will be more flexible, "quickly adjusting itself to the actual situation".
Given that inflation has eased, monetary policy will be looser than it has been this year, Liu said.
Xu said fiscal policy could be a little more expansive while the tax burden is reduced through structural means. The government spending structure will also change, with more investment being made through the public private partnership model.
The meeting did not specify the economic growth target for next year, but analysts said the emphasis on the "new norm" suggests the leadership has come to terms with the economic reality and will accept a target lower than 7.5 percent.
Liu said, "The economic downturn may continue, and it is hard to see it bottoming in the short term. However, the slippage is still under control.
"I agree with a lower GDP target.... A lower growth rate will attract more foreign investors as the risk of high debt and excessive capacity may fall."
Goldman Sachs wrote in a research note on Thursday, "As the government tries to strike a balance between supporting growth and pushing forward reforms, we see a fair likelihood of 2014's stop-and-go pattern for economic momentum in the new year."
Goldman predicts that economic growth will fall to 7 percent in 2015 from 7.3 percent this year.
Chen Jia contributed to this story.
 
.
China shipyard to build world's first deep-sea mining vessel

Xinhua
2014-12-12
14:31 (GMT+8)

A Chinese shipyard has inked a deal with a Singapore firm to build the world's first deep-sea mining vessel, which is due to be delivered in 2017.

Wu Pingshan from Fujian Mawei Shipbuilding, which is based in east China's Fujian province, confirmed on Thursday that the contract had been signed with a Singapore company but declined to disclose the name of the contractor.

Wu said the vessel will be 227 meters long by 40 m wide, with living quarters for up to 180 people and a maximum cargo load of 45,000 tons.

With 30 megawatts of power, the vessel can serve as a platform for seabed mining as deep as 2,500 meters, and will have a helipad.

Founded in 1866, the predecessor of Mawei Shipbuilding was Foochow Arsenal, China's earliest machinery shipbuilding company. It has now become a share-holding firm able to develop, build and repair vessels.
 
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Chinese Banks Step Up Lending to Offset Slowing Growth
Banks Lend More Than Expected as Beijing Moves to Support Economy

BEIJING—China’s banks stepped up lending in November as Beijing moved to provide more support to its slowing economy.

The higher-than-expected growth in credit came after China’s central bank cut benchmark interest rates in a bid to boost the economy and cut costs to borrowers.

China’s banks issued 852.7 billion yuan ($137.5 billion) of new yuan loans in November, up sharply from 548.3 billion yuan in October, according to data from the People’s Bank of China. The total was well above the 650 billion yuan that economists had forecast.

“Credit growth in November was higher than the market expected,” said Fan Zhang, an economist at CIMB. “The central bank may have relaxed the loan-to-deposit ratio to encourage more lending.”

Under existing rules, Chinese banks can only lend 75 cents of each dollar of deposits they collect. Any relaxation of the loan-to-deposit rule would effectively let them increase lending. Regulators haven't announced any change to the policy.

Mr. Zhang also said that the central bank might allow banks to lend more by cutting the reserve requirement ratio—the proportion of deposits that banks need to keep in reserve with the central bank—by the end of the year. The nation’s major banks are supposed to keep 20% of their deposits with the central bank though certain smaller banks are entitled to lend out more if they meet requirements for extending credit to smaller companies and the farm sector.

The central bank had until recently preferred to use targeted easing measures to boost the economy, fearing that an across-the-board reduction in interest rates would encourage lending to sectors of the economy where there is overcapacity, such as for steel and cement production.

But the persistent sluggishness of the economy eventually convinced the nation’s policy makers that more aggressive measures were needed.

Economic growth slipped to 7.3% in the third quarter, its worst showing in five years. Growth was down from 7.5% in the second quarter and 7.7% for all of last year.

Economists had warned that China’s economic expansion for all of 2014 could fall short of the government target of about 7.5%.

In November, total social financing, a broad measure of credit in the economy, came to 1.15 trillion yuan, up from 662.7 billion yuan in October.

The broadest measure of money supply, M2, was up 12.3% at the end of November from a year earlier, lower than the 12.6% increase at the end of October, according to the central bank. The figure was below the median 12.5% increase forecast by economists.

Analysts at China International Capital Corp. said in a note to clients that the central bank has to cut its bank reserve requirement ratio or inject more liquidity into the banking system to ensure that M2 reaches the government’s 13% growth target for this year.

-- Grace Zhu

http://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese...owing-growth-1418378986?tesla=y&mg=reno64-wsj
 
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The spokesman from the country's top poverty reduction authority on Tuesday blamed the "foolish behavior" of a county government in Central China's Hunan province for posting cheerful remarks about being named a State-level poverty-stricken area.

A picture posted online shows a huge screen with LED lights reading "Warm congratulations to Xinshao county for being successfully included in the country's poverty-stricken areas, which will become the main battlefield for the country's poverty alleviation work".

The remarks, which have circulated online and sparked heated debate, ended with "an announcement by the Xinshao county Party committee and Xinshao government".

The local government's website also regarded being named a State-level poverty-stricken county as a piece of "marvelous news", according to a screenshot on the People's Daily website on Tuesday.

Hong Tianyun, spokesman of the State Council Leading Group Office of Poverty Alleviation and Development, told China Daily on Tuesday that such recognition is not meant as an honor, but to put responsibility on local governments where the economy is less developed and farmers' incomes lower than the national poverty threshold.

"We expect these governments to feel pressure and responsibility to help the people get rid of poverty and to boost local economic growth. Being called a poverty-stricken county is nothing worthy of pride," said Hong, who also heads the poverty alleviation office's policy and regulation division.

Xiao Kehan, a publicity official from the county government, told China Daily on Tuesday that both the poster and article have been "removed", admitting that the wordings were inappropriate.

"I got mixed and muddled emotions after hearing this. On one hand, it can be a good thing if our local government uses the opportunity to create more favorable policies to pull people out of poverty. On the other hand, I feel ashamed to tell people I'm from a poor county," said Huang Zhipeng, a 28-year-old native of Xinshao county.

"But it's definitely not something we should brag about."

Although it may sound absurd, some local governments feel happy about the naming as they can receive more investment and resources from the central government, posted netizen Zhaoming1108 at Sina Weibo, a Chinese version of Twitter.

Many Chinese local governments cheat in reporting statistics of economy and resident income so as to be regarded as poor area by the central government.
 
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Many Chinese local governments cheat in reporting statistics of economy and resident income so as to be regarded as poor area by the central government.

True because poor local governments want transfer payment, so they faked the economy figures to be looked like more impoverished. But you have to admit, they are still poor. This always happens in West and Central China, the local industries suck, not enough tax handed to local government. Does the coastal counties rely on transfer payment from the central government? No!!
 
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True because poor local governments want transfer payment, so they faked the economy figures to be looked like more impoverished. But you have to admit, they are still poor. This always happens in West and Central China, the local industries suck, not enough tax handed to local government. Does the coastal counties rely on transfer payment from the central government? No!!

big problem
that is why China has so huge poverty, coz they are fake
 
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Gasoline, Natural Gas, and Aluminum are Bright Spots for China Commodity Demand in 2014 as Steel and Coal Weaken
DECEMBER 12TH, 2014 • GABE COLLINS AND ANDREW ERICKSON

CSP-87_Main-Image.png


Gasoline, natural gas, and aluminum are China’s commodity demand bright spots so far in 2014—amidst a significant downturn in consumption of key basic materials, namely coal, steel, and diesel fuel. Gasoline consumption in China rose by 8.9% YoY between January and October. These results are not surprising given that new car sales rose nearly 16% YoY during the same time period. Healthy growth in transportation equipment output—especially automobiles, subways, and aerospace items—also drives aluminum demand, and apparent aluminum consumption is up 6.5% YoY in the first 10 months of 2014 (Exhibit 1). Finally, natural gas demand is also growing strongly as large Chinese cities work to clean up their air.

Exhibit 1: China Key Commodity Demand Growth for First 10 Months of 2014, YoY Change



Source: NBS China, local media, China SignPost™


China’s fixed asset investment and heavy industrial activity are clearly slowing. Electricity consumption data—one of the more reliable indicators of economic activity levels—shows that between January and October 2014, China’s “secondary” industries saw their power usage rise by 3.9% YoY. The secondary industries (“第二产业”) encompass most forms of manufacturing, fuel and water production, and construction and account for nearly ¾ of China’s electrical power consumption. In contrast, secondary industries’ power use rose by 6.7% YoY during the first 10 months of 2013, suggesting that activity is expanding much less robustly in 2014.

Taken in conjunction with the fact that demand for diesel fuel (which is used to move goods around the country and to the ports) is also down, weaker electricity demand bears close attention because the electricity demand growth figure is a useful proxy for assessing what “real” economic growth in China is at present.

Likewise, China’s coal and steel demand have turned negative for the first time in decades, signaling that demand is plateauing faster than many—especially the mining companies—expected. Depending on how the first six months of 2015 turn out, it may be appropriate to call “Peak Steel” for China—and possibly, “Peak Coal” as well.

Bottom Line: Global commodity markets are in a new phase, and as China continues to slow, the lowest-cost commodity producers will attract the lion’s share of any capital that remains willing to invest in the commodity space. China’s demand for a number of bulk commodities—particularly metals and coal—is flattening decisively—and events in 2015 will clarify if the trend is temporary or permanent. Our belief is that the plateauing demand for steel, coal, and cement, in particular, is more permanent. The dynamics playing out now align with the S-Curves research we first published in the summer of 2011.
 
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UPDATE 1-China's CSR wins $275 mln worth of orders from Argentina

SHANGHAI, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Chinese trainmaker CSR Corp Ltd said it won 1.7 billion yuan ($274.84 million) worth of orders from Argentina, as Chinese rail firms increasingly flex their muscles overseas.

CSR will provide locomotive products for a railway renovation project in the South American country, the company said on its website on Monday.

China has stepped up its focus on railways this year, spending 590 billion yuan ($95.4 billion) from January to October on new domestic lines and making a concerted effort to push its so-called "railroad diplomacy" overseas.

China Railway Construction Corp Ltd signed a $12 billion railway contract in Nigeria in November, the largest single overseas construction deal won by a Chinese firm.

CSR said it has been supplying trains and other rail products to Argentina since 2006. In 2013, it won two orders worth about $1 billion together from the country to supply inter-city trains.

CSR Corp and its main rival China CNR Corp Ltd are in merger talks to create a giant able to compete globally with the likes of Siemens AG and Bombardier Inc , state media have reported.

Shares in both CSR and China CNR have been suspended since late October ahead of an official announcement.

($1 = 6.1855 Chinese yuan)

(Reporting by Adam Jourdan and Brenda Goh; Editing by Kim Coghill)
 
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What a year for China's foreign diplomacy!

Year-end: China's home field diplomatic achievements in 2014

12-15-2014 15:32 BJT


By Prof. Zhou Yongsheng, International Relations Research Institute of China Foreign Affairs University

China's 2014 diplomatic activities have been positive, active, comprehensive and focus-oriented. President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang visited numerous countries in Europe, Africa, Latin America, Oceania and Asia in 2014.

2014121515311153601.jpg


Chinese President Xi Jinping (front, 3rd L) attends the opening ceremony of the 22nd Winter Olympic Games in Sochi, Russia, Feb. 7, 2014. The 22nd Winter Olympic Games opened on Friday night in a spectacular ceremony. Chinese President Xi Jinping attended the ceremony at the invitation of his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. (Xinhua/Lan Hongguang)

The activities began with Xi's attendance of the Sochi Winter Olympics in Russia in early February and will come to an end after Li's attendance of the 5th Leaders Meeting of Greater Mekong Subregion Cooperation Summit in Thailand and subsequent visits.

To continue bilateral diplomacy and multilateral communication, Chinese leaders received several foreign leaders, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, US President Barrack Obama, British Prime Minister David Cameron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe and South African President Jacob Zuma.

China positively participated in multilateral diplomacy, especially through large-scale international conventions held in China in 2014: Boao Forum for Asia, the CICA Summit and the APEC Meeting.

Boao Forum for Asia is a platform for Asian countries to pursue joint development. The summit, held in April, included 68 meetings. Adhering to the theme of economic development of Asia, participants discussed the driving force and direction of the future sustainable development of Asia in aspects of structural transformation, technical transformation, as well as resource and energy environment.

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Chinese Premier Li Keqiang (C) poses for a group photo with world leaders before the opening of the Boao Forum for Asia (BFA) Annual Conference 2014 in Boao, south China's Hainan Province, April 10, 2014. (Xinhua/Ding Lin)

For the first time, the summit's agenda was extended to politics and security issues. This allowed for the discussion of topics involving the Sino-America relationship, network security and the South China Sea, all of which have been sensitive topics in the past.

As the host, China also organized the dialogues of provincial and ministerial leaders and events such as Sino-Russia, Sino-Australia and Sino-Japan meetings to promote economic trade cooperation and establish a communication platform for entrepreneurs.

Government leaders from nine countries, including Premier Li Keqiang, attended the Boao Forum Summit. Uniting Asian countries to pursue joint development is one of China's diplomatic principles.

The 4th Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA), was a multilateral forum about security that involved 26 Asian countries.

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Chinese President Xi Jinping (C), Kazakhstan's President Nursultan Nazarbayev (L) and Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu attend the closing press conference of the fourth summit of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA), in Shanghai, east China, May 21, 2014. (Xinhua/Lan Hongguang)

The three previous CICA summits did not attract much attention, but at this edition, held on May 21 in Shanghai, most leaders of member countries participated, and the summit drew worldwide attention.

Xi put forward the security value of Asia as joint, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable, which was recorded in Shanghai Declaration of the 4th CICA Summit to become a principle of CICA member countries.

The 22nd APEC Informal Leaders' Meeting was held in November. It was the last large-scale international conference China hosted in 2014.

As the host, China warmly received international guests and played a promoting and guiding role in the policy of APEC. Xi said in his speech that APEC members should promote regional economic integration, create an open structure favorable for sustainable development, facilitate the Asia-Pacific FTA and clarify the targets, direction and roadmap to realize the vision as soon as possible and integrate both sides of the Pacific Ocean.

China advocated consolidating the infrastructure construction for interconnectivity. These proposals were recognized by member countries.

The conference issued Beijing Agenda for an Integrated, Innovative and Interconnected Asia-Pacific-The 22nd APEC Economic Leaders’ Declaration and Shaping the Future through Asia-Pacific Partnership-Statement on the 25th Anniversary of APEC, which contains the targets and spirit advocated by China, thus demonstrating the guiding and promoting role of China.

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Chinese President Xi Jinping and his wife Peng Liyuan pose for a group photo with leaders of economies attending the 22nd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting and their spouses, ahead of a welcome banquet in Beijing, capital of China, Nov. 10, 2014. (Xinhua/Ju Peng)
 
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CGN to buy 3 UK wind plants
By Zhang Ye Source:Global Times Published: 2014-12-15 23:13:15

Share price up on media reports of entry in EU energy market
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A wind power farm in Northwest China's Gansu Province Photo: CFP

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Shares of China General Nuclear Power Group (CGN), one of the country's biggest nuclear power generators, rose by 0.57 percent on Monday, following media reports that it intends to enter the EU's renewable energy market.

State-owned CGN, which just got listed on the Hong Kong stock market on Wednesday, saw its shares close at HK$3.56 ($0.56) per share on Monday, witnessing a slight rise from the previous price of HK$3.54.

The rise came against the backdrop that CGN is reportedly set to announce a purchase of three wind power plants from a French utility EDF on Monday.

A report by the Financial Times on Sunday said that the Chinese group will obtain an 80 percent stake in the three farms in UK, while the remaining 20 percent goes to EDF Group, which will continue operating the turbines and also buy the electricity generated by the farms.


The EDF did not reply to the Global Times e-mail inquiry on the matter by press time. A PR representative with CGN refused to comment on this by press time either.

According to the report, citing unnamed analysts, the value of the deal is expected to hit over 100 million pounds ($157 million), and the sites will generate over 70 megawatts of electricity, which is enough to serve nearly 40,000 homes.

Upon the completion of the potential acquisition, CGN's business portfolio will be diversified, giving the company more chances to further open up the global power generating market, said Lin Boqiang, director of the China Center for Energy Economics Research at Xiamen University.

The purchase of the wind farms is reportedly CGN's first big presence into the renewable energy sector beyond China.

As China's demand for electricity grows at a slow space amid economic slowdown, local power generating companies need to fast-track their overseas expansion to consume its large capacity, Lin told the Global Times Monday.

A report by China Electricity Council showed in late November that the national electricity usage in the first 10 months of the year amounted to 4.55 trillion kilowatt-hours, up 3.8 percent year-on-year, while the growth rate over the same period of 2013 is 7.4 percent.

"This is also a good deal for EDF. In addition to offering advanced technology, the cooperation with CGN will lower its costs in the development of wind power farms in the UK, where the labor costs are likely 30 percent higher than in China," said Lin.

EDF's latest financial reports showed that in the first nine months of the year, the group's sales amounted to 52.3 billion euros ($64.08 billion), a slight increase of 0.4 percent year-on-year or down 1.3 percent in organic terms.

Analysts thought that it is now a good time for domestic power generating companies to dip a toe into the overseas renewable energy market, especially the wind power segment.

China has showed a great progress in wind power generation, which provided a solid technological ground for domestic companies to compete with other foreign counterparts, Meng Xian'gan, deputy director of the China Renewable Energy Society, told the Global Times Monday.

2014 will see China cross a milestone, as it is expected to become the world's largest wind power market with installed wind capacity of over 100 gigawatts, according to the Global Wind Energy Outlook 2014 issued by the Global Wind Energy Council in October.

Meng's opinion was echoed by Lin, who noted that EU governments' current active initiatives in boosting renewable energy will also facilitate domestic companies' globalization.

The UK government, for instance, has introduced a number of regulations and subsidies, such as feed-in tariffs, to boost the application of renewable energy in the country, calling for a rise in the usage to 30 percent of the total electricity generated in 2020.

In 2013, renewable energy accounted for 15 percent of total generation, according to the US Energy Information Administration's report issued in June.

Against the backdrop, CGN's major domestic rival China National Nuclear Corp (CNNC) also actively bumped up investment in the EU renewable market.

On December 4, the CNNC signed a memorandum of understanding with the US engineering construction company Fluor Corp to jointly develop their nuclear power and wind energy business in UK, Germany and China.

Meng noted that it is good to see more domestic power generating companies go abroad, but warned that they need to have a very thorough understanding of local culture and policies before investment.

Personnel management and plant operation, in which Chinese companies are usually weak, may also be major hurdles for their overseas expansion, he said.
 
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Chinese firms to purchase overseas banking assets
Source:Reuters Published: 2014-12-15

Chinese financial firms are targeting purchases of distressed banking assets coming on the market in Europe, having been urged by the central government to expand their reach beyond emerging markets.

The first Chinese purchase of a European investment bank was announced last week, with Haitong Securities agreeing to pay 379 million euros ($470 million) for an investment bank in austerity-hit Portugal.

Banco Espirito Santo de Investimento SA (BESI) is being sold by Novo Banco, the bank carved out of Banco Espirito Santo after it was rescued in August.

For China's second-largest brokerage it's a modest-sized deal, equivalent to just 1.5 percent of Haitong's market value. But it demonstrates the changing character of acquisitions by Chinese financial firms.

These days they mostly seek controlling stakes, and now they are scouting Europe for opportunities, avoiding anything too big.

"Increasingly, Chinese financial firms are seeking control deals as a way to expand their global footprint," said Mayooran Elalingam, head of Asia-Pacific M&A at Deutsche Bank.

"Several distressed opportunities are available in eurozone economies and we expect the Chinese financial services sector to be active in these situations," he noted.

Such deals can help Chinese banks gain treasured European banking licenses as well as expertise, notably in debt markets, that can be transferred back home, whereas growth through opening overseas bank branches can be a slow process.

This year, the government began encouraging Chinese stock brokers and financial firms to acquire greater international reach, according to investment bankers.

The drive for geographic spread reflects China's efforts to build up overseas bank outlets as the yuan gains a greater share of global trade.

Haitong's purchase of BESI, Portugal's biggest debt underwriting firm, will give it control of a business that earned 247 million euros in revenues in 2013, according to analysts at Daiwa Capital Markets, and a ready-made investment banking network in Europe.
 
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BESI is in a deep financial troubles and one of the biggest banks in Portugal.So basically China is saving the bank-saving the miserable Portuguese economy-saving EU(which already is in recession and numerous problems).
as well as expertise, notably in debt markets, that can be transferred back home, whereas growth through opening overseas bank branches can be a slow process.
You do not need western "expertise "in debt markets unless Chinese people are fancy spending their entire life in repaying debts(a normal thing in USA/EU and unfortunately already in Bulgaria too).It is always wise to spend your life living by your means.
 
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