China Economy Forum

[Raphael]

I'm glad the central government is thinking of reforms instead of stimulus. There's nothing wrong with 7.x% growth, and there's really no way to ameliorate it while the main export markets are faltering. Structural reform to ensure long-term growth is the key.

 

[chinapakistan]

This is not just china's problem, other countries are facing more seriouse troubles.

 

[cirr]

It's time to tighten your seat belts。

I for one made a plunge into the stock market at today‘s close。

 

[Azazel]

A PMI figure lower than 50 does NOT indicate contraction，it simply means the manufacturing sector is growing at a slower pace in China's case。

If factory growth was an annual rate of 10% in the previous month with PMI at 49.2，as is the case for China，a reading of 48.3 in June means that growth may be slowed to some 9.5% in the said month。

While India might have a higher PMI，but since its industrial production is seeing virtually zero year-on-year growth，even a figure much higher than 50 still produces little or NO growth，for little expansion from zero is still minute。

No,PMI index below 50 means contraction in manufacturing activity and above 50 means expansion in that particular month.Same goes for Services PMI.And Industrial production is not just manufacturing it includes mining and utilities that are not measured in PMI.

 

[cirr]

No,PMI index below 50 means contraction in manufacturing activity and above 50 means expansion in that particular month.Same goes for Services PMI.And Industrial production is not just manufacturing it includes mining and utilities that are not measured in PMI.

Contraction compared with what？

If China’s manufacturing grew，say 10%，in May 2013，which it did，a June PMI below 50 simply means that the growth will come in at a slower pace，perhaps at a y-o-y rate of some 9.5%。

India has virtually zero growth in its manufacturing to start with，so even if its PMI index is expanding and stays above 50，the actual growth is still minimal：1-2% at best。

By the way，HSBC's survey focuses on China's mainly privately-owned small- and medium- sized enterprises，the PMI of which has been consitently below the official index which places more importance on state-owned and large companies。

 

[eddieInUK]

Rebalance is needed, the trade only increased 1% in Q2. The GDP of Q2 may be below 7%.

 

[northeast]

self deleted

 

[Azazel]

Contraction compared with what？

Compared to the month before.Below 50 means the manufacturing sector contracted compared to last month.If it is above 50, but lower that the last month then it means the manufacturing sector is still expanding but at a lower pace compared to last month.Another crucial no is 42,below that means the recession could be just around the corner.PMI numbers are often crucial for many important policy decisions for central banks around the world.

If China’s manufacturing grew，say 10%，in May 2013，which it did，a June PMI below 50 simply means that the growth will come in at a slower pace，perhaps at a y-o-y rate of some 9.5%。

Which will mean Chinese economic recovery is gonna take some time which will slow down the global economic recovery.Which is a bad news.

India has virtually zero growth in its manufacturing to start with，so even if its PMI index is expanding and stays above 50，the actual growth is still minimal：1-2% at best。

India is a service sector oriented economy.Where the growth is still good.We are only beginning to reorient our economy to the manufacturing.

 

[shuttler]

The HSBC flash PMI comes ahead of the final reading, which is due to be released on July 1 along with the Chinese government's official PMI.

The announcement of the official PMI is just about a bit more than a week away.

The second Qtr is usually not the best performed period in whole year due to cyclical reasons. Our gdp growth forecast is still okay amidst a slumbering economy worldwide. We havent done anything substantial to adjust our exch-rate yet.

 

[Audio]

Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI at 48.7
(48.3 in May). 16-month high.

Flash China Manufacturing PMI at 48.3 (49.2 in
May). Nine-month low.



http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/899f6d7cc57342b487bd764ce5610c18

http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/f2ffa599067442d492b2baadc42da5d5

Contracting faster now then EU which is 5 years into the crisis. Don't mean to troll, i just find it very interesting piece of info.

 

[cirr]

Russia, China reach $60 bn oil supply deal: Putin

Last Updated: Thursday, June 20, 2013

Saint Petersburg: Moscow and Beijing have reached agreement on a USD 60 billion contract to ramp up Russian oil supplies to China, part of the two countries' strategy to tighten their energy partnership, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday.

"A contract with Rosneft company has been prepared which is large-scale and unprecedented without any exaggeration," Putin told Chinese Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli at a meeting in Saint Petersburg, estimating the value of the deal at more than USD 60 billion.

In his comments open to the media, Putin did not say when the firm contract would be signed.

A preliminary agreement to gradually raise Russian oil supplies to China over the next 25 years from their current level of 15 million tonnes per year was reached during China's leader Xi Jinping's visit to Moscow in March.

As part of the deal, Russian oil state company Rosneft is to receive a USD 2 billion loan from China.

Russia, which wants to diversify its energy customers away from Europe, also needs to finalise a potentially huge gas deal with China but a commercial contract has so far proved elusive as talks have become mired in pricing disputes.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/21/b...to-send-60-billion-worth-of-oil-to-china.html

 

[senheiser]

 

[Silverblaze]

Read somewhere that China has 60 million apartments unoccupied because prices are too high. Singapore could serve as some sort of model.

 

[hurt]

Read somewhere that China has 60 million apartments unoccupied because prices are too high. Singapore could serve as some sort of model.

Its a wrong message.

China has 60 million apartments unoccupied because lots families own too many apartments.
Lots of persons own lots apartments.
For example,My familiy have 6 persons，only 4 persons in china.But we have 5 apartments in china.
I am not a rich man in china.

Housing Bubble is fact,but its dont means chinese can not afford.

 

[Okemos]

China needs to impose property tax so owning empty houses is not longer feasible. Of course, the property owners will oppose that, but Chinese leaders need muster their political wills for long term economic health, and the property owners also need to realize that housing bubble will hurt them most in the end!

That'st just my two cents.