Chinas Manufacturing Shrinks for 11th Month, HSBC PMI Shows.
By Bloomberg News - Sep 29, 2012 8:34 AM GMT+0530
Chinas manufacturing contracted for an 11th straight month, a private survey found, increasing pressure on the government to counter a deepening slowdown in the worlds second-largest economy.
The purchasing managers index from HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA) and Markit Economics had a final reading of 47.9 for September, compared with 47.6 in August and a preliminary level of 47.8 released Sept. 20. Readings above 50 signal expansion.
The data add to challenges for Chinas leaders who are preparing to transfer power beginning in November to a new set of top officials in a once-a-decade handover. The government is trying to balance the priorities of supporting growth with avoiding a resurgence in property prices as income gains slow.
Beijing should step up easing to support growth and employment, Qu Hongbin, chief China economist for HSBC in Hong Kong, said in a statement today. Fiscal measures should play a more important role in the coming months.
The yuan climbed on Sept. 28 to its strongest level since 1993 on speculation China will step up efforts to support growth, with the Shanghai Composite Index completing a 4.1 percent two-day gain. The Peoples Bank of China injected record funds into the financial system this week to ease a cash squeeze in the run-up to a week-long holiday that starts Oct. 1. Chinas markets are closed through Oct. 7.
Export Orders
Todays data showed new export orders declined in September at the fastest pace in 42 months and purchasing activity in manufacturing fell a fifth consecutive month. Output and import prices also continued to drop and employee numbers decreased a seventh straight month, HSBC and Markit said.
A separate, government-backed purchasing managers index (SHCOMP) for manufacturing will be released Oct. 1. The gauge probably rose to 50.1 in September, just above the expansion-contraction dividing level of 50, from a nine-month low of 49.2 in August, based on the median estimate of 21 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.
Chinese industrial companies profits dropped for a fifth month in August, government data showed on Sept. 27. Baoshan Iron & Steel Co. (600019), the nations largest listed steelmaker, said this week it suspended production at a Chinese plant after demand dropped for slabs used to make ships and bridges.
Slowing Growth
The report adds to evidence that Chinas slowdown has extended into a seventh quarter after growth decelerated to a three-year low of 7.6 percent in the April-June period. The economy may expand 7.4 percent in the three months through September from a year earlier, based on the median estimate of 23 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News from Sept. 11 to Sept. 18. Estimates ranged from 7.1 percent to 7.9 percent.
Chinas industrial production rose 8.9 percent in August from a year earlier, the weakest pace since May 2009, compared with a 13.5 percent gain in August 2011.
The government has sped up approvals for investment projects, lowered interest rates and boosted tax support for exporters in response to the slowdown. At the same time, authorities have refrained from easing monetary policy since rate cuts in June and July and a May reduction in banks reserve requirements.
Wen signaled this month that theres more room for fiscal and monetary policy to support growth, saying Sept. 11 that the nation has full confidence it will meet its economic goals for the year. The government is trying to prevent growth this year from slipping below the 7.5 percent target set in March, which would already be the weakest since 1990.
To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Xin Zhou in Beijing at
xzhou68@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Paul Panckhurst at
ppanckhurst@bloomberg.net
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