OrionHunter
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From boom to bust? Well, it sure looks like it. China is heading downhill, never mind all the bluster that emanates from Chinese statisticians to the contrary. Is what were seeing the beginning of the great fall of the Han Dynasty? And the article below doesn't include the disaster facing the Chinese and that is, an aging population when there would be no 'hands on deck' to churn out stuff in about 30 years time. But that's for another thread.
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China's number crunching is too perfect for its own good. WikiLeaks drew attention to them with publication of a message that, in 2007, Vice Premier Li Keqiang told U.S. officials that China's GDP figures are "man-made" and "for reference only". Equally important, Beijing's tools for boosting the economy may set back medium-term essential reforms.
In spite of staunch claims by China's top statisticians that their numbers have been checked to see that they do add up, there are several points of inconsistency. Electricity consumption is flat; new housing starts continue to collapse; retail sales figures do not point in a clear direction; and the GDP deflator implied from the difference between nominal and real rates of GDP growth suggests that China is on track toward deflation.
All of these factors lead economists to suggest that China's growth may be more like 7 to 7.3 percent. "Before the story of 'China as the forthcoming greatest economic power', many held the impression that Chinese companies either were not well run, or were run by crooks who cooked the books and produced inferior products to rip people off. Meanwhile, corruption was rampant ...
"These are the problems of China's past. But if they sound familiar to you, that's because they are what increasing numbers of people are talking about now. China is still full of businessmen who make crap products that are dangerous for human consumption. Corruption is as serious as it was, if not more so. You still have to bribe officials to achieve your goals, and government officials cannot have a successful career without being corrupt ...
As professor Michael Pettis of Peking University has pointed out, rebalancing the economy will probably involve a fall in the GDP growth rate. He believes that ordinary Chinese will not care if growth falls to 5 percent or even to 3 percent, as long as wages go up, household income rises and they get a bigger share of the pie.
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China failing economic vision test | The Japan Times Online
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China's number crunching is too perfect for its own good. WikiLeaks drew attention to them with publication of a message that, in 2007, Vice Premier Li Keqiang told U.S. officials that China's GDP figures are "man-made" and "for reference only". Equally important, Beijing's tools for boosting the economy may set back medium-term essential reforms.
In spite of staunch claims by China's top statisticians that their numbers have been checked to see that they do add up, there are several points of inconsistency. Electricity consumption is flat; new housing starts continue to collapse; retail sales figures do not point in a clear direction; and the GDP deflator implied from the difference between nominal and real rates of GDP growth suggests that China is on track toward deflation.
All of these factors lead economists to suggest that China's growth may be more like 7 to 7.3 percent. "Before the story of 'China as the forthcoming greatest economic power', many held the impression that Chinese companies either were not well run, or were run by crooks who cooked the books and produced inferior products to rip people off. Meanwhile, corruption was rampant ...
"These are the problems of China's past. But if they sound familiar to you, that's because they are what increasing numbers of people are talking about now. China is still full of businessmen who make crap products that are dangerous for human consumption. Corruption is as serious as it was, if not more so. You still have to bribe officials to achieve your goals, and government officials cannot have a successful career without being corrupt ...
As professor Michael Pettis of Peking University has pointed out, rebalancing the economy will probably involve a fall in the GDP growth rate. He believes that ordinary Chinese will not care if growth falls to 5 percent or even to 3 percent, as long as wages go up, household income rises and they get a bigger share of the pie.
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China failing economic vision test | The Japan Times Online
