China Economy Forum

[cirr]

New 1,000 Megawatt Solar Project In China Marks ‘Significant Shift’ For Global Market

By Emily Atkin on January 2, 2014 at 11:46 am

"New 1,000 Megawatt Solar Project In China Marks ‘Significant Shift’ For Global Market"

A worker transports a cart of cement in front of a building covered in a wall of solar panels at a factory in northern China’s Hebei province.

CREDIT: AP Photo/Alexander F. Yuan

China’s second-largest maker of solar photovoltaic panels will develop a huge 1,000 megawatt (MW) ground-mounted solar power plant complex in a remote Chinese desert, which the company announced Monday — a move that some say is a sign of big things to come for the global solar industry in 2014.

The complex will be built by Trina Solar Ltd. in the western region of Turpan Prefecture, a “harsh, drastic, cold desert” in the western Xinjiang province. Plants are scheduled to begin construction over a four year time frame starting in early 2014, the company said, with installed capacity of 300 MW scheduled to be completed and connected to the grid by the end of this year. The project is subject to Chinese regulatory approval, but if completed, it would be the largest solar power plant project in Xinjiang.

“Xinjiang’s abundant land and solar resources make Turpan an ideal location for this project,” Trina Solar CEO Jifan Gao said in a statement. “We look forward to working in close collaboration with the local authorities to satisfy the conditions needed for phase one.”

The announcement is welcome news for China, a country with world-famous pollution that has recently been found to be largely caused by too-abundant fossil fuel production. That production is led by more than 2,300 coal-fired power plants, though emissions from other types of fossil fuel combustion also contribute to the smog. However, Trina’s new solar project will only supply power for the areas in which the project surrounds — Turpan Prefecture itself has a population of just 570,000 — dashing the chances that it might alleviate pollution in the smog-centers of Beijing or Shanghai.

If approved, Trina’s massive solar project would be in the Turpan region — far away from the pollution centers of Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.

Still, Todd Woody at Quartz writes that Trina’s new project “marks a significant shift in the global solar market,” revived by the Chinese government’s projected solar goals for 2020. By that year, China is aiming to have a total of 700,000 MW of renewable energy online, including 50,000 MW of solar.

“The new policy came as China’s photovoltaic panel makers faced falling revenues and multibillion-dollar deficits after embarking on a manufacturing boom that allowed them to corner the global solar market but sent prices plummeting,” Woody writes. “Projects such as the power plant in Turpan Prefecture announced [Monday] help soak up China’s excess manufacturing capacity while creating jobs for local workers.”

The project itself will eventually represent 12.5 percent of Trina’s annual manufacturing capacity, according to the Quartz report, which says business in China will also account for as much as 30 percent of Trina’s revenue in 2013 — up from 13 percent in 2012.

Doug Young at Renewable Energy World, however, has his doubts.

“I certainly don’t want to throw too much cold water on this nascent rebound for China’s solar panel makers, who along with their global peers have suffered through a prolonged downturn dating back to early 2011 due to massive overcapacity,” Young writes. “But amid the bright news, potential downside lurks in the risk that payments for some of these mega-orders could be slow to come, as many solar plant operators are big state-owned entities that may lack the funds and skills to pay for and operate all of their ambitious new projects.”

In other words, the scope of the project is aggressive — maybe too aggressive, which may translate to difficultly obtaining financing, causing delays. But if China, which has set a goal of having 35 gigawatts of installed solar power generating capacity by 2015, are to reach those goals, aggressiveness may be their only choice.

“Achieving such a grand target will be tough,” Young writes, “but big state-run companies are showing they will embark on a major new building spree to help Beijing reach the goal.”

New 1,000 Megawatt Solar Project In China Marks 'Significant Shift' For Global Market | ThinkProgress

 

[Edison Chen]

The GDP of China's Guangdong province is estimated to have grown 8.5% to over 6 trillion yuan (US$1 trillion), in 2013, becoming the sixth province in the nation to hit this mark.

If this is the case, Guangdong would rank as the 16th largest economy worldwide, were it a nation, trailing Mexico in 14th place with US$1.18 trillion and South Korea in 15th place with US$1.13 trillion.

Some experts, however, attribute the achievement partly to the revaluation of the renminbi, pointing to the unbalanced development of the provincial economy, as the four major cities of Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Foshan, and Dongguan accounted for 70% of its GDP in 2013 and its per capita GDP ranked among the lowest nationwide, according to the Shanghai-based China Business News. The province's per capita GDP amounted to only US$8,913 in 2012, compared with US$22,590 in South Korea and equal to that of Romania, whose GDP ranked 52nd place worldwide.

In 2013, Guangdong's exports, a key element of its economy, grew 7.5% to over US$1 trillion, shy of the 8% growth target but still an exceptional performance, in view of the volatile global market.

In 2013, the province's industrial infrastructure was further improved, as the added value of the service industry topped 3 trillion yuan (US$495.8 billion), surpassing that of secondary industries and replacing them to become the province's foremost economic sector.

The private sector gained an even more important role in the economy in 2013, according to the China Business News, when the growth rate of its investments almost doubled that of fixed capital formation.

Thanks to e-commerce, total retail sales topped 2.55 trillion yuan (US$421.4 billion) in 2013.

Hu Gang, professor at the School of Management at Jinan University, remarked that it's nothing extraordinary for Guangdong's GDP to surpass US$1 trillion, as the province has over 100 million people, double the population of South Korea.

In addition, said Hu, the province still relies heavily on labor-intensive industries and is still engaged in an uphill battle in terms of industrial upgrading. It lags far behind South Korea and Taiwan in innovation and doesn't have large numbers of foreign enterprises to bolster its economy as they do, with the possible exception of Shenzhen.

Guangdong is stepping up its effort to upgrade its economy, according Zhu Xiaodan, the governor, who noted at a press conference on Nov 22 last year that the share of consumption for the province's economy had reached 54.4%, up from 45.5% in 2007, that of investment reached 43.7% up from 22.8%, and that of exports had reached 31.9% up from 31.7%.

 

[CN.Black]

More than half of the WHOLE INDIA'S gdp

 

[Ayush]

congrats

 

[Lux de Veritas]

I think China economy could be the biggest in the whole world. All these GDP numbers are quite rigged. We can roughly gauge how big is a countries' economy by electricity and steel production. China top the world.

That does not mean that China is way beyond the west. The west are limited by their structural problems, especially a bunch of elites, hijacking the entire countries. These elites prefer to see bridges and all infra-structure rot rather than to do something unless they can make profit from the work.

 

[Edison Chen]

Six Provinces in Mainland China Have Per Capita GDP Over $10,000

As of the end of 2013 China had six provinces with a per capita GDP of over $10,000; Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Inner Mongolia. This, in the international arena, means that China is classified in the ‘moderately developed country’ phase.

Experts say that China’s economic growth depends chiefly on fixed assest investment, foreign trade and exports. Right now, however, the ration of real incomes to GDP is only 40%, which is relatively low when compared to the 55% of other developed nations.

Harvard economics professor, Janos Kornia, says that the Chinese government must focus on the concerns of people with low salaries in order to make the leap to a developed nation.

Population by province:

Beijing 20.69 million
Shanghai 23.80 million
Jiangsu 79.20 million
Tianjin 14.13 million
Zhejiang 56.13 million
Inner Mongolia 24.70 million

Total population 218.65 million, which means more than 200 million Chinese are approaching the high income level soon.

 

[djsjs]

so soon it will surpass South Korea and Mexican ,then Australia,Spain.....hope guangdong surpass India in a decade or two

 

[cirr]

The GDP of Jiangsu province also probably exceeded the 1 trillion USD mark in 2013。

Shandong province will join the club in 2014.

 

[cirr]

A big upward revision of China's total economic output will come in 2015 when the country adopts SNA 2008 for calculating its GDP。

 

[Edison Chen]

.

A big upward revision of China's total economic output will come in 2015 when the country adopts SNA 2008 for calculating its GDP。

So what's new about SNA 2008?

 

[cirr]

.


So what's new about SNA 2008?

There are a number of changes in the way GDP is calculated。

For example，rental expenditure for self-owned properties will be calculated at market price rather than historical cost。The current GDP data put the value added of both owner- and tenant-occupied housing at an average of just Rmb1,868 a year or Rmb156 a month per household (both rural and urban). By contrast, US GDP data assumes about $1,200 a month per household.

R&D expenditure will be counted as capital formation，which added the US GDP by about 2.5%。

.


So what's new about SNA 2008?

The System of National Accounts 2008 (2008 SNA) is the latest version of the international statistical standard for the national accounts, adopted by the United Nations Statistical Commission (UNSC).

The 2008 SNA is an update of the System of National Accounts, 1993 (1993 SNA). The update was in 2003 entrusted to the Intersecretariat Working Group on National Accounts (ISWGNA) to address issues brought about by changes in the economic environment, advances in methodological research and the needs of users.

The first seventeen chapters of the 2008 SNA comprising the accounting rules, the accounts and tables, and their integration were adopted by the UNSC in 2008; chapters 18 to 29, comprising the interpretations and extensions of the accounts and tables of the System, were adopted by the UNSC in 2009.

The 2008 SNA is the result of a process that was notable for its transparency and the wide involvement of the international statistical community, both of which were made possible by the innovative use of the project's website Towards 2008 SNA as a communication tool. In its adoption of the 2008 SNA the UNSC encouraged Member States, regional and sub-regional organizations to implement its recommendations and use it for the national and international reporting of national accounts statistics.

Being a conceptual framework, the 2008 SNA does not attempt to provide comprehensive compilation guidance on how to make estimates nor is it descriptive in setting priorities which accounts and tables should be implemented or expresses norms on the frequency and format of their presentation. For practical compilation guidance, international agencies have developed separate handbooks like the handbooks of national accounting prepared by the United Nations Statistics Division.

A number of research issues have emerged during the update of the 1993 SNA, but where more extensive consideration is needed than what was possible in the course of the update process. These issues are listed in Annex 4 of the 2008. More information on these and emerging research issues and recommendations on the outcome of the research can be found at under the Research agenda.

 

[Edison Chen]

For example，rental expenditure for self-owned properties will be calculated at market price rather than historical cost.
------------------------------
Yes, FMV instead of historical cost should be adopted, it's more reasonable.

 

[Beidou2020]

Great news

 

[Beidou2020]

lawl Guangdong is closing in on the Indian economy. With the Rupee weakening and Renminbi strengthening, the dollar value of Guangdong's economy will soon surpass the Indian economy. That will be highly embarrassing for India.

 

[S10]

Why are you people comparing China to India again?