cirr
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@Assault Rifle Don‘t worry。China's stock indices are nearly exactly where they were 12 or 13 years ago。That hasn't stopped China from becoming the world's 2nd largest economy。
My guess is that China's stock indices will more or less remain where they are today when China becomes the world’s largest economy in 2017 or 2018.
The problem with Chinese stocks is that they come to the market on high multiples(PEs of 30、40、50 or even more)and then promptly go up anything from 30-100% on the first trading day。
Indian stocks,in rupee terms,are doing relatively well because India‘s stock market is tiny compared with China's, Indian stocks sell on low multiples even after the recent rises,and India is a magnet for hot money,something that China happens to despise。
Also China's stock indices are dominated by 20-30 heveyweights in a few sectors,such as financial services,energy、and property development。ICBC alone,for example,is about the entire banking industry in India。Vanko the property developer is at least half India's housing industry。The lousy showing by the main index is not indictive of hundreds of smaller companies whose stock prices doubled,tripled or even quadruled in 2013.
The performance of the stock market has never been a barometer of the Chinese economy。As a matter of fact,the opposite is often true:stocks do poorly in the boom years when money goes to the real economy rather than financial speculation。
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