If Usa and Russia nuke each other then China will also go down with it as the countries bordering Russia will also suffer greatly. Russia is definitely struggling to win the Ukrainian war. China will probably pressurise Russia and Ukraine to come to the negotiation table and declare end to the war. Ukraine will have to agree to give Crimea and Donbass region to Russia and Russia will then allow Ukraine to join EU and possibly Nato in the future. Russia will be the loosing party no matter what because they failed in Ukraine.
The thing is, China have no hold on Ukraine.
As much as I want to see China take a bigger role to end this war, I can only see Chinese be able to affect Russian, so at the end of the day it is whether or not China going to do all it can to force Russia (or rather Putin) to give up, I don't see that coming either.
At this point, Ukraine will only talks if there are 2 things on the table,
1.) Roll back to at least pre-2022 border.
2.) Security Guarantee, most likely membership sometime down the road.
Without both, I don't think Ukraine will talk.
Look at the Russia export chart. This is why their economy is fine. Russian economy aint like India or China. They have lots of resources and few people. As long as they can export their resources, they are fine.
and they aren't any jobless people anymore with general mobilization just announced.
They are in the shit now BECAUSE OF THIS.
China cannot replace EU as Russian energy partner; it would be lucky if Russia can dump half of what it sold to EU before on China, it will be most likely less, a lot less. And then they are going to do it with a discounted price.
It's still rosy if oil price is $130 or more per barrel, not at 80 to 90 per barrel, while no one know what kind of discount rate Russia is offering but most people in the market believe China will not bulk buy unless it is 20% off or more.
And then this news just released.
You don't hike the tax for oil and gas when they are earning enough for you. That's the ground reality here.
