faithfulguy
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Using its ballistic and 4,000km+ cruise missiles, China can indeed destroy all American military bases in Asia. However, there are still 60 American nuclear submarines that China has to worry about. Also, outside of the second island chain, the US Navy will rule supreme for the next twenty years.
I fail to see the geo-strategic benefit in tackling the American military head-on in Asia. No one attacks their best customer. Also, the US will make China pay in disrupted trade.
The US and China are two very different superpowers with different strengths. Every American action (e.g. Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, etc.) is based on hard military power. China Inc. is based on economic power.
Eventually, China Inc. should win the marathon contest because a much larger economy provides more resources for a nation's military. We are ten years away from the tipping point where the Chinese economy is the same size as the American economy.
However, military power is based on accumulated assets and technologies. This means China will need an additional ten years after economic parity to match U.S. military power. Therefore, China is at least twenty years away from matching U.S. military power.
Until that day, China must accommodate the U.S. whenever possible. This is the only rational choice. Rome is weakening, but it is still militarily supreme for the foreseeable future.
Very logical analysis. You got many things correct except the time line for China to match US military technology after reach economic parity. US is way ahead of China in all major technological field. And even at this time, US is pulling further and further away from China in technical ability. So it would be quite a while after China even double the economic size of US before China can start catcing up to US. We also need to remember that US currently pace the technological break through of all major researches. So even if China surpasses European and Russian technology, China is still a long way before catching up to US. My rough guestimate is that China would not equal US technology until 2100.