I understand the need for 3-4 squadron of a third type of Aircraft. I also filly agree with the ease with which the 16s can be integrated into our system and the in built capacity we have for repair /ovehaul and spares. The main problem remains the diverging goalposts of US-Pak interests and the rabid need of the US to have a new enemy in China.
Pak is now too invested in China and we have a history spanning 5 decades of cooperation and converging mutual interests bringing and keeping the 2 countries close. Pak also fully understands the need for diversity so as not to become too dependent on China(various reasons for this can be offered)and hence the overtures to Russia, Turkey and Italy( just lumping them together for the sake of the narrative).
The question to which we do not have an answer, is whether the US will dangle a carrot or not? . If it does what are the terms of this carrot and how advantageous is it for Pak as well as US. IF the dangled carrot is allowing Pak to purchase MLUed platforms going on sale in EU, then do you take into consideration the 2 squadrons you can replace in 6 months to a year with little or no work up barring local check up . If the carrot is buying 18 new platforms with most of the money being paid by FMS funds which have been pending and you can buy 2 squadron of MLUed platforms from US stock/ or EU, who amongst you will not grab the bargain knowing fully well the ease of integration as we have in built capacity. However if you are required to procure platforms at cost from the US, I think it is safe to say all of us will choose to walk away.
We also need to take into consideration what conditions are puts on and whether they are palatable for us. If the only condition is facilitation of the Afghan exit, then it might be fine. If on the other hand it is provision of air base to attack Iran then would people here say yay or nay.
So in short there are various permutations of how this could all go down and our response needs to be tempered by what is on offer.
A